Last month, hundreds of protesters gathered in central Moscow. Standing outside the country’s Supreme Court, they chanted “Shame!” at the authorities.

The site was extraordinary in a wartime Russia where public protests have become vanishingly rare. Even mild expressions of dissent can result in jail sentences.

The protesters were risking their freedom – there were several arrests reported – over a ruling that banned Yabloko, the only liberal, anti-war party, from standing in Russia’s legislative elections later this month – the first since the invasion of Ukraine.

Yabloko was banned over highly questionable allegations of promoting the “international LGBT movement” and copyright infringement.

The elections are heavily controlled by the regime. The Kremlin can disqualify parties and candidates on thin pretexts, artificially boost candidates of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, and interfere with counts through the electronic voting system.

But the country’s beleaguered opposition factions sense an opportunity in this month’s vote, and the case of Yabloko – meaning apple – has fuelled belief that they can galvanise anti-war sentiment.

As the campaign got under way last month, support for the party surged from around 1 per cent to around 10 per cent in one government poll – well above the threshold for parliamentary representation. Another Kremlin-controlled survey found 18 per cent were open to voting for Yabloko. Party activists believe both polls under-represent their potential support.

Yabloko has also dominated the online conversation with by far the highest engagement on social media. The party’s apple logo has become a common sight on Russian platforms.

Max Katz, who represented the party in local government and as a campaign chair before he was designated a foreign agent and forced to flee the country after declaring opposition to the war, said the party had become a vehicle for surging anti-war sentiment.

“Those who manage elections in Russia chose Yabloko to run, because they only got about 1 per cent,” he told The i Paper. “They were always a pacifist party, they were against all the wars Russia had in the past 30 years. And suddenly, this idea was catching up with the population…and they saw their rating grow very fast.”

Even Russia’s stage-managed elections offer a rare opportunity to show dissent, with parties and candidates offered some freedom to campaign and spread their message. Yabloko was able to promote its slogan “For peace and freedom.” Chairman Nikolai Rybakov expressed his hope “for people to stop killing each other”.

Those sentiments appear to chime with popular feeling as polls show increasing war fatigue, with one recent survey showing a record low 28 per cent in favour of continuing the war and 62 per cent supporting peace negotiations.

Russians are increasingly feeling the effects, from fuel shortages to the threat of mobilisation. Putin’s own approval rating fell to a wartime low of 66 per cent in July, while United Russia is favoured by 37 per cent of voters, according to state pollsters.

“When people have a chance to express their view they do it,” said Katz. He believes the ceiling for an anti-war vote could be as high as 50 per cent.

“You can see something like in Belarus in 2020, when everybody suddenly came to vote and voted against [the regime], and then the system has big problems,” Katz said referring to the protests that shook Alexander Lukashenko regime. “If we can show that there is no support…it will be a big problem for Putin.”

Katz believes the biggest threat to Putin’s regime is financial, suggesting a growing deficit to service the war might eventually undo the dictator. “They have less and less money, and they need more and more for war. At some point this might bring the economy to instability. Putin might have problems then.”

While Yabloko has been struck off the party list for the elections, it still has more than a hundred “single-mandate candidates” standing to represent districts. The Kremlin is targeting these candidates too, with several arrested in recent weeks.

There are also dozens of other candidates who are at least “neutral” on the war, said Katz, who has created an online, district-level voter guide offering recommendations based on their views of the war and mobilisation.

“If everybody goes and votes against this, it will be interesting,” he said. “Of course, [the regime] will falsify the results. But if everyone votes, and there is a huge need for falsifications, then you have problems for a system like we have in Russia, because it relies on delusions of public support.”

Other anti-war, anti-regime factions are also targeting the election. The Anti-Corruption Foundation, now under the leadership of Yulia Navalnaya after the death of her husband, Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison, is promoting a smart voting initiative.

The initiative “identifies the candidate with the best chance of defeating United Russia and recommends that voters consolidate behind that person,” a spokesperson said. “The objective is to reduce the number of seats controlled by United Russia and make it harder for the Kremlin to present the result as evidence of overwhelming public support.”

Ilya Yashin, a Russian former MP who was jailed for opposing the war, has launched a new party, Peaceful Russia, which is promoting “Noon Against Putin” – a plan that would see voters arrive at the same time on the last day of voting to spoil their ballots or vote against the regime.

The focus on elections is partly a reflection of the shrinking space for dissent in Russia, with many opposition groups banned and activists jailed, and rampant censorship of information.

OVD-info, a group that offered legal support for dissidents and protesters, was recently banned as an allegedly extremist organisation, making any contact with it a criminal offence.

Proscription “was a huge crisis for us,” said the OVD spokesperson Dmitry Anisimov. “We lost one of the key things that we provide: direct legal aid, and we also had to shut down our humanitarian aid programme. We can no longer send any food or medicine to political prisoners, and cannot send them letters.”

But the group still provides legal consultations to political detainees, working with activists inside Russia, he said, with the elections now a priority. “We are preparing for election fraud situations or detentions during the election,” said Ainismov. “We will be giving consultations to people and answering all their questions, so they can defend their rights.”

OVD is also looking beyond the election to the threat of possible mobilisation. Many of the requests the group receives are from people seeking to improve security around their electronic devices to avoid state surveillance, which could help if they need to flee the country in a hurry.

Some dissident factions, operating covertly inside Russia, are offering support for people to avoid enlistment into the military. Go by the Forest has published a guide detailing risk factors for conscription, such as being drunk in public, and how to avoid it – such as changing your address.

Activists who have fled Russia and those who are still inside remain at high risks as the regime seeks to stamp out any remaining opposition. Milana Shesterikova, a co-ordinator with the Vesna youth group, said they were lucky with an infiltration attempt.

“We know the [Russian security agency] FSB is finding ways to put pressure on activists and to basically make them co-operate in some way,” she said. “Vesna had one case of such an agent that was kind enough to inform us that he was pressured by the FSB. He said he would only leak the information that we give him, so it was not bad for us. He got protection later in an EU country.”

Russian dissidents describe feelings of frustration that they can’t do more to challenge the regime even while placing themselves in its crosshairs. The elections this month are a case in point – activists must take personal risks to express any opposition to Putin and the war. But with even the limited freedoms the election offers under assault, they feel an urgent need to act now.