When Andy Burnham announced plans to reform the state pension triple lock, he slayed a sacred cow of British politics and left his political opponents scrambling to catch up.

As Kemi Badenoch travels to the Conservatives’ annual conference in Birmingham this weekend, senior figures in her party say she should follow suit. But, reliant on grey voters (that is, the older population), she is refusing to countenance a shift; her party re-committed to the policy within hours of the Prime Minister’s speech.

“I don’t think we should be ruling anything out,” a senior Conservative told The i Paper. “I felt like we responded a bit too fulsomely.”

That’s because the policy has become a public finances millstone. Beginning in 2030, Burnham’s plan will eliminate the upward ratchet in the state pension triple lock.

Since 2011, the Government has guaranteed that the state pension will rise in line with average wage growth, inflation or 2.5 per cent – whichever is highest. Burnham pledged to increase it in line with inflation or 2.5 per cent from 2030 instead, with a less generous “earnings link” instead of a commitment on wages. 

“It’s unaffordable in the long term, of course we should keep our options open,” a member of the Shadow Cabinet told The i Paper. “I see why Kemi’s doing it, but I don’t think we should commit to it so far away from an election.”

Is an early election on the way?

But the timing of an election is exactly why Badenoch is sticking to her guns. Even though Burnham and his No 10 team have spent most of the last month hosing down the idea of going to the country before 2029, the Tory leader and her key allies think the Prime Minister could call an election as soon as next May. 

They believe that although Burnham may have set out a longer-term vision for after the next election, he still must survive the next few years bound by Sir Keir Starmer’s 2024 manifesto which bars a rise in income tax, VAT or workers’ national insurance contributions.

“I can’t see how we’re not going to have an election in May or next autumn because I think he’s going to get to the point after a dozen or so PMQs where he’s going to say, ‘I can’t carry on like this within the bounds of the manifesto, we’ve got to take it to the country’,” a senior ally of Badenoch said.

Fighting against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in north London, Burnham is “hoping he’s going to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election and generate some sort of consensus of full-on lefties,” the Tory added.

The by-election was sparked after the resignation of former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer last month, and is due to take place on 8 October.

The Conservative said: “The Liberals will go neutral, and he’ll hope that Reform is in a shit place and we will be divided, and he can get close to a majority and then pal up with all the other nationalists.”

Liberal Democrats leader Sir Ed Davey faced widespread backlash from his party this week after he said removing the triple lock “would put more pensioners into poverty”. A large number of his MPs back Burnham.

The Conservatives are so concerned about an early election that Badenoch has instructed Tory MP Neil O’Brien to draft the party’s next manifesto, even though the party will publish it only after a date is announced.

“The truth is that although Andy Burnham says there won’t be a general election until 2029, we suspect there will be one sooner, and we have accelerated our processes for that. So, we have started drafting a manifesto, and the triple lock is in the manifesto,” an aide to Badenoch said.

“There is a simple reason for this, which is that if you want to bring down government spending, you’ve got to start with welfare spending.”

The Conservatives will gather in Birmingham this weekend amid growing confidence that they have found the right leader and shaken off talk of a leadership challenge after throwing out former Tory Robert Jenrick.

A slightly higher poll rating is giving them reason to think the public might be in the mood, if not to forgive, then to listen again.

Instead of calling this a normal, workaday conference, the Tories have alighted on a grandiose “festival of ideas”.

Last year, organisers held Badenoch’s keynote speech in a smaller side room to avoid embarrassing photographs of empty chairs, but this year she will deliver it in the city’s International Convention Centre’s 2,200-seater Symphony Hall. This will be the first time a leader’s speech has been held there since former prime minister Theresa May memorably walked out to ABBA’s “Dancing Queen” in 2018.

If that’s the equivalent of Glastonbury’s main stage, there will also be smaller platforms where, rather than individual speeches from the Shadow Cabinet, there will be expert discussions.

An ambitious sounding “fan zone” will bring together food trucks and a big screen designed to encourage conversation and networking among delegates.

“It’s going to feel very different,” an organiser said.

Still arguing over Thatcherism

Badenoch has not yet finalised her keynote address for Wednesday, but she will likely dismantle Burnham’s rejection of Margaret Thatcher’s neoliberalism, which allows market forces to dominate.

“Her vision will look more to the Thatcher corrective, which says we’ll do whatever it takes to put this country back into centre stage and to grow businesses and to unleash the potential of this country, and that means tackling welfare and defending our country rather than getting dragged into what our specific pledges will be,” a Tory MP predicted.

More specifically, she will attack Burnham’s accounting.

Even though he says he will amend the triple lock, the “savings” don’t come close to covering his vision for a new free-at-the-point-of-use national at-home care service for older adults. That might cost £18.5bn by 2035, according to the Health Foundation think-tank, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies says the pension savings that same year might be just £4bn.

“He’s falling into the trap of Boris Johnson cakeism: have your cake and eat it,” one Conservative MP said.

“Populism and cakeism, where you appeal to the sentiments of people, but you don’t deal with the practical realities, and you don’t deal with the trade-offs. He’s going to have to put taxes up significantly at some point.”

“I think Labour has made it clear what its choices are. They want to cut the triple lock, but they won’t cut working-age benefits, and they are in a bind over defence,” a member of the Shadow Cabinet said.

“The question back to them is why start with the triple lock when you’ve got this colossal working-age benefits bill, when foreigners are claiming benefits and when Burnham is saying he wants to increase aid spending?”

Public statements by senior Conservatives including shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat and shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith attacking the policy have been retracted.

Yet, however much they criticise Burnham, there is still a behind-the-scenes conversation taking place in Tory circles about whether the triple lock can survive.

Another member of the Shadow Cabinet warned the Tory policy commitment is unlikely to last until 2029, when the election is due, “unless a miracle happens and the public finances pick up. We’ve still got to find the money for defence.”

The commitment to get defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030 will cost an estimated £10bn a year.

“I don’t see how we can go into the election committed to the triple lock in an unambiguous way, put it that way. I think there’s going to be some nuance to our position because I just can’t see how we can be fiscally responsible and retain it,” the senior Tory added.

All the evidence shows the loyal Tory vote is ageing. The party won 44 per cent vote share among pensioners over 65 in 2024, coming first with this group, according to the British Election Study Internet Panel. By contrast, they won under 10 per cent with voters 35 and under, putting them in fifth place with this group.

“We do need to broaden our appeal, age-wise, but our focus on sound economics should do that,” a Shadow Cabinet minister said.

Badenoch thinks pensioners have contributed

According to an aide, Badenoch’s commitment to the triple lock is because she is “very hot on the idea of contribution”.

They pointed to Tory plans announced last week that those claiming universal credit would have their payments cut by a third if they had not paid enough national insurance. However, those who have contributed taxes would not face the same sanctions.

“It’s the idea that if you’ve paid in, then you have made a contribution and you shouldn’t be penalised for that and that is where we start when it comes to pensions,” the aide added.

And while the issue is likely to dominate the Birmingham gathering, don’t expect a change in Badenoch’s position anytime soon. “I don’t think she is listening to the voices who say she should scrap it,” another member of the Shadow Cabinet said.