Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives faced one major challenge following their momentous defeat in 2024: staying relevant. After 14 years in power – characterised in many ways by political turbulence through the chaos of Brexit and the pandemic – voters understandably decided to shift their focus towards a rehabilitated Labour and a Reform UK promising to shake the system from the ground up.

The Conservative leader has performed admirably in holding the Government’s feet to the fire, playing a significant role in defenestrating Sir Keir Starmer less than two years since he won by a landslide. Her confidence is clearly up, buoyed by pugnacious parliamentary performances and positive personal poll ratings that are effectively carrying her party. But against Nigel Farage, the verdict is less clear: despite multiple prangs and scandals, Reform continues to command media attention whenever they manage to cobble together a coherent policy announcement.

The reversal in Tory fortunes cannot be delivered by Badenoch alone. Being in Opposition – as many Conservative MPs will tell you – is miserable compared to the trappings of power that Government brings, notwithstanding how difficult governing has now become. Beyond the mandatory media attention provided by her constitutional role as official Leader of the Opposition, achieving wider cut-through is far more challenging. The party can only do that with a frontbench team that can match her zeal for spotting a political opportunity and prosecuting it remorselessly.

Andy Burnham has spent his summer honeymoon by oddly not saying or doing very much. For a once-heralded big spender, his cost of living announcements are relatively thin and the Budget is expected to be tepid. For a premiership which was arguably born following John Healey’s resignation over defence spending, the former defence secretary turned Chancellor is now wobbling on spending three per cent by the end of this parliament. And for a Prime Minister who has derided the prevailing trend in recent years of government by consultation, he is refusing to set out any details on much-needed welfare reform before yet another pair of independent consultations are due later in the autumn.

Labour is especially vulnerable in these areas, as well as others. The reality of Britain’s fiscal situation precludes any meaningful ability to address the rising cost of living, particularly with ingrained higher inflation resulting from global factors out of our control. The Government is under increasing pressure from the US and other Nato allies to increase defence spending rapidly – but cannot justify such a huge financial commitment without cutting elsewhere. And it is hard to see Labour backbenchers permitting the Prime Minister to reduce our unsustainable levels of welfare spending, given how they reacted to Starmer’s lacklustre attempt.

Reform has the luxury – for now – of easily outflanking all the other parties by offering the most radical or outrageous policy proposal, accompanied by simple yet concise rhetoric designed for mass social media circulation. But the time will come when scrutiny of their relatively lightweight interventions will ramp up, providing a vacancy of seriousness and maturity that the Conservatives should be best-placed to occupy. Witness Richard Tice proclaiming a few weeks ago that Britons should be embracing this summer’s heatwaves that have destroyed crop yields and led to house fires in middle-class Stourbridge. This is not serious, especially given the seemingly sole justification provided: English sparkling wine producers can better compete with French champagne.

The still-recent memory of Conservative rule makes this a formidable challenge for Badenoch and her top team – but the opportunity is there. Labour are already on their second prime minister in two years, making the defence of a bad inheritance no longer palatable. Reform is beset by bitter in-fighting and continues to lack credible policy thinkers who can prescribe detailed, actionable reforms that voters want to see.

But the Tories need to crank up the tempo. Beyond setting out alternative policy proposals that are properly costed and thought-through, they need to pick fights more and take sides on the major political issues dominating any given day. In this new age of high-paced politics where authenticity and conviction are highly valued and rewarded by voters, they need their best media performers to be given free reign to articulate – in simple language – what the party stands for and why, accompanied by a clearly-understood policy alternative crafted for social media consumption. And then double down, again and again. During my time in successive Conservative governments, this wasn’t done nearly enough.

Badenoch is naturally good at this – but she cannot do it alone. On the one hand, she doesn’t always get it right: the defence of a council candidate convicted of racially aggravated harassment of a Jewish Labour MP was difficult to understand. But additionally, she needs a shadow cabinet that voters recognise and identify with to share the burden and present a credible alternative government-in-waiting.

The appointment of Tom Tugendhat as shadow foreign secretary will add additional heft to the party’s offering on defence, and while it is sad to see Mel Stride go, Andrew Griffith brings valuable business experience to the shadow Treasury brief. With the spectre of an early general election on the horizon, this reshuffle is her chance to put that team in place. Although denied by Burnham’s team – who realistically cannot say anything else – the constraints of Labour’s manifesto, which prevents the major tax rises they desperately want and need, make such an outcome increasingly likely.

Be bold, Badenoch. Follow your instincts and pick more fights – as a team.