Major welfare reforms are expected to be pushed back another year until 2027 – raising the prospect of tax rises or further spending cuts as ministers find themselves increasingly boxed in ahead of October’s Budget.
The i Paper has learned that significant changes to benefits such as personal independence payments (PIP) and universal credit (UC) are not expected until a new Welfare Bill is tabled in Parliament, which is unlikely to come in this session.
It means the earliest opportunity will be the next King’s Speech, which could take place in spring 2027.
Uk politics
Former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer is to quit Parliament, saying he felt it was the “right time” to step down as an MP just weeks after leaving Downing Street.
His resignation will trigger a by-election in his Holborn and St Pancras constituency, where Starmer’s majority was cut by 17 per cent in the 2024 election amid anger over Gaza.
What we know so far
- Starmer told the he had spent the summer reflecting and decided it was the “right time” to go.
- He said he intends to focus on international affairs – including defence, security, trade and technology.
- Green Party leader Zack Polanski could use the by-election to make a run for Parliament.
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What has Starmer said?
It has been a huge honour and privilege to represent the best constituency in the country and to have taken over from Frank Dobson, who was such a great constituency MP and a member of the last Labour government.
keir starmer in the camden new journal
What next for the former PM?
Starmer said he intends to pursue a career working on international affairs and continue his long-running campaign against violence against women and girls.
He has already been linked with the post of NATO secretary-general when Mark Rutte’s term ends in 2028, although there is no suggestion that he has formally put himself forward for the position.
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Trump may review US stance on Falkland Islands
Donald Trump has indicated he is reviewing the US stance on Britain’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands.
The US has typically remained neutral on the Falkland Islands, while recognising British administration of them.
What did Trump say?
I always review every position. That’s just one of many.
Trump said the US stance on the status of the Falklands is “one of many” positions he is considering.
In April, a Pentagon memo was leaked suggesting the US could recognise Argentina’s claim to the islands to punish Britain for not joining the war on Iran.
US officials also reportedly considered including the option as a way to pressure the UK to hit its Nato spending targets.
The British response
Chancellor John Healey told he was not aware of a suggestion that the US position could change.
“The Falkland Islands will remain British as long as the Falkland Islands want that to happen,” he added.
But last week, a US official told that Washington may change its position over the islands if the UK doesn’t meet its defence spending commitments.
Trump wades into Falkands dispute
It’s the first time Trump has commented on the islands’ sovereignty.
The UK would struggle to defend the Falklands if Trump followed through on threats to withdraw US support for British sovereignty, analysts have warned.
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Badenoch’s Tory reshuffle – what you need to know
After she took over as leader of the Tory Party almost two years ago, Kemi Badenoch pledged not to hold a reshuffle before the next general election.
What are the big changes?
- Badenoch has ruthlessly dispatched Stride as shadow chancellor.
- Patel has also been replaced as shadow foreign secretary.
- MPs Andrew Griffith and Tom Tugendhat will replace them.
- Damien Hinds has been selected as the new shadow Health Secretary, while Katie Lam comes in on housing.
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Tories stuck in the polls
One reason for the shakeup is the Conservatives’ position treading water in the shallow end of the polls.
“It’s partly because the Tories are stuck in the polls and can’t budge forward, so they hope a refreshed team will do it. Only time will tell,” one Tory source said.
The latest BMG poll for The i Paper, published this weekend, puts Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Tories on just 18 per cent.
The contradiction for Badenoch is that her personal ratings are improving.
Stride biggest casualty of reshuffle
Stride was one of the biggest names relegated to the backbenches. One insider revealed: “Mel isn’t well liked across the party and hasn’t really waded in on big things.”
They added, though, that he had been held back by a lack of staff – which will need to be remedied if Griffith is to perform better.
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Everything else to know
- Chris Philp survived the cull to remain as shadow Home Secretary. One insider said he “works hard” and had begun to get some traction on illegal immigration.
- Lam has become the new shadow Secretary for Housing. She replaces James Cleverly, who announced on Saturday that he was quitting to run in the next London Mayor election.
- The appointment of Griffith as shadow Chancellor shows Badenoch plans to prioritise the economy in her next election pitch.
Children among 20 missing after Cyprus ferry sinking
A specialist team equipped to search deep waters was due to arrive from Turkey on Tuesday as emergency crews pressed on with efforts to find 20 people missing after a ferry capsized off northern Cyprus.
What happened?
- A ferry carrying 267 people capsized and sank off the coast of northern Cyprus on Sunday.
- The Filo Jet left the town of Kyrenia and soon started to take on water.
- Survivors reported the ferry moving erratically, with its last hard impact with the water’s surface breaking the bow of the vessel.
Everything we know so far
There are still 20 people unaccounted for, including an unknown number of children.
Passengers interviewed in local media claim they begged the captain to turn around, then were left scrambling for life jackets.
Captain Mustafa Oz, 66, and seven crew members have been arrested over the incident.
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Search efforts continue
Visiting Kyrenia on Monday, Tufan Erhürman, president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is not recognised by the UK, said the search would “continue with the same intensity, with no interruption, through the day and night”.
A mother, Ayten Bicer, felt her 12-year-old daughter slip from her hands and disappear as the ferry capsized. Her daughter and son, six, are among the missing.
uk politics
Burnham to tell MPs more public control needed
The Prime Minister is set to call for greater control over public services like water, energy and transport in his first House of Commons statement since entering No 10.
What is he calling for?
Burnham held a Cabinet meeting this morning as the Government set out plans to build more prison spaces.
He has already announced cuts to VAT on energy bills and business rates for pubs and clubs and plans to overhaul social care.
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Burnham’s first test in the Commons
Today’s speech will be Burnham’s first time at the dispatch box in 16 years.
He is expected to face a two-hour grilling from MPs when he stands up in the Commons on Tuesday this afternoon.
On Wednesday, he will face Tory leader Kemi Badenoch during his first Prime Minister’s Questions.
Burnham is expected to face questions on how he plans to fill a £4.7bn black hole in defence spending.
Burnham has ‘clear plan’
- The PM is considering legislation to to bring struggling utilities under government ownership.
- He is set to tell MPs the cost of services to families is harming the economy.
- Burnham is set to promise a plan to regain control of these costs.
- A No 10 source said: “Andy is optimistic about our country’s future. He has a clear plan for how we turn things round.”
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Super flu vaccines start for pregnant women and children
Millions of children and pregnant women across England can get an updated flu vaccine from today.
Flu jabs: What you need to know
This year’s vaccine will protect against the Super-K strain which was rampant last year.- Schoolchildren and pregnant women will get priority as they can easily catch and spread flu.
- Other vulnerable groups, including those aged 65 and over, will be eligible for a free jab from October.
- Children over two will be offered the vaccine as a nasal spray, while adults will receive an injection.
- Pharmacies, GP surgeries and schools will offer the vaccines on the NHS.
Why is it important?
Dr Amanda Doyle, a national director at NHS England, said: “Last year’s flu season came early and was made worse by a new variant, which had a major impact for patients and put enormous pressure on urgent and emergency care services.”
She added: “With services already under significant pressure, it is vital that everyone offered the vaccine comes forward.”
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Facts and figures
- Jabs will be given in locations including mobile vans.
- Last year’s flu season started a month early with the Super-K strain.
- Children are offered a vaccine in September as flu spreads quickly.
- Almost 19 million people had flu jabs last winter, preventing 104,000 hospital admissions.
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us news
Ex-gang boss found guilty over Tupac Shakur murder
Former gangland boss Duane “Keffe D” Davis, 63, has been found guilty of orchestrating the killing of rapper Tupac Shakur in 1996.
It is the first time anyone has been convicted over the infamous drive-by shooting.
What you need to know
- The jury found Davis guilty of one count of murder with a deadly weapon.
- Prosecutors argued that Davis did not fire the gun himself, but had masterminded the killing.
- He is a former gang leader and uncle of the man long suspected of shooting Tupac.
- After the verdict, Davis said he plans to appeal his conviction. He is due to be sentenced on 13 October.
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What happened on the night
The cold case has rumbled on for decades, with witnesses allowing police to piece together the chain of events before the rapper died.
- On 7 September, 1996, Tupac went to watch a Mike Tyson boxing match on the Las Vegas strip.
- He and Marion “Suge” Knight, the head of his record label, got into a fight with Orlando Anderson, Duane Davis’s nephew and a suspected member of the South Side Compton Crips gang.
- Leaving the match with Suge, Tupac was shot four times in a drive-by shooting from the back of a white Cadillac.
- Six days later, on 13 September, he died in hospital. He was 25 years old.
What convinced the jury?
The prosecution used Davis’s 2019 memoir, , in which he wrote he had been in the white Cadillac when the shots were fired.
In closing arguments, prosecutor Binu Palal urged jurors to find Davis guilty, saying: “He’s the shot caller – in every instance in every iteration he’s the leader of the South Side Crips.”
How to be more grateful for daily life in five easy steps
The world feels like a difficult place at the moment, and it can feel very hard sometimes to find things to be thankful for; when we are overwhelmed, we have less capacity to notice and reflect on the good things. Yet, ironically, proactively cultivating gratitude is one of the things that can actually help us feel less stressed.
NHS GP dR RADHA
The science
Research has shown that feeling or expressing thanks can actually alter our brain.
- The balance of neurotransmitters change; more serotonin and dopamine (feel good chemicals) are produced.
- This can be long lasting if we make gratitude a regular habit.
- We also get a decrease in our cortisol (stress hormone) levels which helps lower anxiety.
- Being grateful can strengthen the nerve pathways which triggers positive emotion.
How can we build gratitude?
Change your words
Instead of seeing something as a problem, try to see the opportunities within it.
Our brains are very receptive and what we read or write can alter our emotional system.
Express it
This will not only make you feel good, but you will also get a positive response from others.
How can we build gratitude?
Notice more
Throughout your day, try to notice all the things that are going well; has someone opened a door for you, or smiled?
The basics
By being thankful for the small things every day, we are far more likely to be and stay healthy so that we can enjoy them.
What to do
Gratitude can lead to feelings of optimism, lower our blood pressure, and improve sleep quality.
- Write down what potential good aspects there are to the things you don’t feel like doing, or even what could be worse about it.
- Spend a few minutes writing down three things that you are looking forward to that day, or the good things that have happened to you that day.
- Say thank you to yourself for the things you have achieved, or managed to get through and changed that day.
The legislation is expected to set out the Government’s response to two major reviews of the welfare system: the review of disability benefits led by Stephen Timms and Alan Milburn’s review of young people who are economically inactive or Neets – Not in Employment, Education or Training.
Taken together, the reviews are intended to shape the Government’s longer-term approach to welfare, including how the system can better support people with health conditions and disabilities into work, while addressing the rising cost of benefits.
That would mean the biggest changes to UC and disability benefits, including PIP, would come after Chancellor John Healey’s 28 October Budget, rather than forming a major part of it.
A Government source familiar with the discussions said “any big changes” would require primary legislation that would come in a welfare bill, likely to be brought forward in the next Parliamentary session.
Instead, the Government is expected to continue with measures already under way, including tackling fraud and error, reducing notability spending and tightening restrictions on new claims for health-related benefits.
Minister not just looking at cuts
The source said ministers were looking at “refocusing” welfare spending rather than simply cutting benefits.
That leaves Healey facing a narrower range of options for finding savings in October if the Government wants to create room for other spending commitments while sticking to its fiscal rules.
While Downing Street will deny this amounts to a delay, welfare reform had been a priority for Sir Keir Starmer’s government for much of its time in office.
Ministers spent months trying to get a grip on a benefits bill they warned was spiralling, only to see their first major package of reforms watered down after a Labour rebellion.
The Government is already under pressure to find savings across public spending, while several of the biggest areas of expenditure are politically difficult to reduce.
The state pension is one of the largest elements of welfare spending at £146.1bn, but ministers have repeatedly faced political pressure over any suggestion of reducing pensioner support or changing the triple lock.
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts UK welfare spending to rise from £332.9bn in 2025–26 to £406.bn by 2030–31 – an increase of £74bn, or around 22 per cent. By 2030–31, that is equivalent to roughly 11 per cent of the UK’s annual economic output, with rising pension and health and disability spending accounting for a significant share of the increase.
Supporting young people into work
The Government has also committed to increasing defence spending, while ministers are facing pressure over the cost of delivering other existing commitments.
In his first statement to Parliament as Prime Minister on Tuesday, Andy Burnham confirmed that Milburn’s review into young people and work will be published after the Government’s 10-year plan, which is not expected until the Budget, or even later this autumn.
A source close to Pat McFadden, the Work and Pensions Secretary, refused to be drawn on the timing of any legislation that may follow its publication and said they were “unaware” of any decision made to delay it to the next Parliamentary session.
The Milburn review is expected to focus particularly on young people who are not in education, employment or training, with the aim of shifting the balance of spending towards employment support.
Reports have suggested that Milburn could recommend changes to the way UC is used to support young people, potentially including stronger expectations around engaging with employment support.
One proposal exclusively revealed by The i Paper is to restrict access to some elements of UC for young people who are not engaging with support.
The thinking behind the review is that the Government should spend more on helping people into work rather than simply supporting them through benefits.
The Timms review is taking a separate look at disability benefits. Its recommendations are likely to have implications for both PIP and the health-related element of UC. The Government has already introduced changes to the UC health element for new claimants, with the higher rate now subject to stricter eligibility requirements.
Timms has previously stressed that his review is not intended simply as a cost-cutting exercise. Nevertheless, its interim findings have concluded that PIP is “not fit for purpose”, leaving open the possibility of significant changes to the way disability support is assessed and delivered.