Andy Burnham’s ambitions to build tens of thousands of new council houses is under threat because of a labour shortage caused by Brexit, industry leaders have warned.
A lack of skilled workers and the impact of millions not being able to work here since Brexit means more than 200,000 EU workers have left the industry since 2019, according to Checkatrade's UK Trade Skills Index.
It comes as the latest Office for National Statistics figures show there were 31,000 vacancies in the construction sector between May and July this year – a rise of 2.3 per cent from the same period last year. That figure has, however, fallen since a record 51,000 vacancies in 2022 after Covid.
The crisis is worsened by an aging workforce, with just one in five workers aged under 30 – compared to 35 per cent aged over 50, with many are expected to retire over the next decade, according to the skills index.
It estimates around 1 million additional workers will be needed to replace those leaving and to meet the additional demand for housebuilding over the next decade. Around 206,000 of those are needed by 2030 from 2025, an upscale of 1.6 per cent in workforce, to meet forecasted demand.
Clive Dickin, chief executive of the National Access and Scaffolding Confederation (NASC), warned that there is a forecast shortage of 40,000 scaffolders alone over the next five years and said that the reflected wider problems in skilled labour since the UK left the EU.
Mr Dickin described the combination of Brexit and Covid as “a perfect storm” which saw thousands of skilled labourers, including scaffolders, leave the country when changes to immigration rules after leaving the EU were brought in, meaning most did not return.
The warning comes as the prime minister unveiled £10bn of funding to build 70,000 new council homes across England feeding into a wider Labour Party target of 1.5 million new homes built by the next election in 2029.
The announcement came just hours after Mr Burnham confirmed that he would stick to Keir Starmer’s controversial “red lines” on Brexit, which rules out rejoining the EU, single market or Customs Union and a return to free movement of people.
Mr Dickin told : “At the moment we are looking at about a 40,000 vacancy rate. We've got about 130,000 scaffolders, and 40,000 more over the next five years is what we're estimating to meet the demands of the varying house building targets, net zero, cladding initiatives. You know, all of these subject areas are putting greater demands.”
He added: “The council house building announcement is certainly not going to help the situation.”
Explaining the link to Brexit, he said: “One of the biggest factors of that was ultimately Covid and Brexit, the perfect storm, seeing many skilled and qualified scaffolders that had been within the UK, leaving to go home. Then, of course, the changes around the exit of the Europe Union resulted in people not being able to return easily back to the United Kingdom, so as a result we've, we've got a significant shortage of very skilled scaffolders.”
He also noted that stringent, high level qualifications needed in the industry means that it takes five years to qualify as a scaffolder, meaning that training up new people will not fill vacancies in the short term.
Scaffolding is involved with multiple areas including home building and theatre productions, and already the petrochemical and offshore industries are struggling to recruit workers to do it.
Marley Morris, associate director for migration, trade and communities at the Institute of Public Policy for the Regions (IPPR), agreed that the construction industry had been particularly hit by shortages since Brexit.
Its 2017 report on the impact of Brexit, during the negotiations for Britain leaving the EU, warned that the UK would need to invest in skilled workers in the construction industry but that has failed to happen.
He noted that the end of free movement had been temporarily mitigated against by a “more liberal migration policy” in the first few years after Brexit but now that the government is tightening up there are more problems.
He said: “It's quite striking that when the Migration Advisory Committee published their temporary shortage list it was dominated by construction roles.
“I think that reflects that many of the key strategic occupations are construction dominated, and that reflects the government's priorities and the kind of cross-cutting nature of construction.”
The warnings are also supported by data from a Federation of Master Builders survey, which showed that almost a fifth (18 per cent) of the 493 respondents said their workforce had decreased in the second half of 2025.
Of the roles the hardest to fill, almost a third (30 per cent) reported difficulty in finding carpenters, compared to 33 per cent in 2020. More than a quarter (29 per cent) had difficulty getting bricklayers, 23 per cent in getting plumbers and 22 per cent in getting roofers.
Other challenging vacancies to fill were electricians (21 per cent), plasterers (20 per cent) painters and decorators (16 per cent) and scaffolders (12 per cent).
Almost three-quarters (72 per cent) of firms said they were affected by a lack of skilled tradespeople in the second half of 2025, compared to 61 per cent in the first half. Shortages caused job delays for half of those questioned, with almost one in four (22 per cent) saying they had led to job cancellations.
According to the Skills Training Group, the number of skilled manual workers has shrunk significantly in many of the key occupations for homebuilding from a decade ago.
The body's trade trends report published five years ago found that there were 35 per cent fewer bricklayers in 2020 compared to 2005, 23 per cent fewer plasterers, 18 per cent fewer painters and decorators and 17 per cent fewer carpenters and joiners.
The crisis in skilled labour has seen Mr Burnham adopt recommendations on vocational training from former health secretary Alan Milburn putting it on a par with getting a degree at university.
A report by social enterprise group Places for People last year warned that 250,000 new apprenticeships are needed to solve the crisis.
It warned: “The UK construction industry is facing a severe skills shortage, with over 140,000 job vacancies stalling essential housing and infrastructure projects. Despite skilled trades – such as bricklaying, plumbing, and roofing – comprising 10 per cent of England’s workforce, demand far exceeds supply.
“By 2035, over one-third of construction workers will retire, worsening the crisis. This shortfall puts the UK government’s ambitious 1.3 million new homes target at serious risk. With over 159,000 children living in temporary housing, urgent action is needed to boost recruitment, training, and retention in the construction sector.”
A Conservative spokesman said: “Once again, Andy Burnham is making promises with no plan for delivery.
“The numbers behind this announcement don’t add up and the government have said nothing about the funding profile. And there are clearly major gaps in the workforce that will stop homes getting built.”
The government has been approached for comment.