Andy Burnham’s promise of the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war period will be undermined for years by an extended surge in Right to Buy sales, as councils struggle with a backlog of applications.
Tens of thousands of tenants applied to buy their council homes after the discounts on offer under the scheme were cut in 2024, fuelling a 90 per cent jump in sales last year to 14,275.
The Government expected sales to drop dramatically after the initial surge, allowing councils to start building thousands more homes than they lost through the Right to Buy.
But because of the backlog, The i Paper has found that sales did not slow to the 1,650 annually the Government expected, and councils are on track to sell five times that number this year and three times as many in 2027-28.
Holborn by-election results as Polanski vows to ‘carry on’
Labour has held former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer’s old seat of Holborn and St Pancras, with Zack Polanski vowing to carry on as Green Party leader despite losing to Sagal Abdi-Wali.
Greens increase vote share but fall short of majority
The Greens increased their vote share by about 23 per cent compared to the 2024 general election result, when Starmer held the seat. However, Polanski ultimately fell short of victory by over 3,000 votes in Thursday’s 15-candidate by-election, which saw a 38.76 per cent voter turnout.
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The results
- Labour’s Abdi-Wali won with 12,292 votes (45.17 per cent).
- Green leader Polanski earned 8,928 votes (32.81 per cent).
- The Tories’ Ewan Cameron was third (1,922 votes, 7.06 per cent).
- Reform UK’s Peter Newman came fourth (1,612 votes, 5.92 per cent).
What next for the Greens?
Polanski vowed to “carry on as leader of the Green Party”, saying “of course I can” when asked about a potential leadership threat following his loss. However, he conceded that it would ultimately be up to members to decide if continues in his role during a scheduled leadership election next year.
The Greens described the result as “incredible” for the party, adding: “We are here to stay and just getting started.”
Watch: Polanski reacts to defeat
Victory a testament to diversity, says Abdi-Wali
“I hope this moment also says something about who gets to belong, for people who look like me…our diversity is a strength”
Labour’s winning candidate and leader of Camden Council spoke about the area’s “cohesion” in her victory speech. Meanwhile, party chair Bridget Philipson said: “Britain is backing Labour’s message of hope.”
Watch more from The i Paper
What next for Andrew after police warrant legal claim win
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has won a legal challenge against Thames Valley Police, but the former prince’s court battle is set to continue.
New developments
- At a hearing on Thursday, police accepted the search warrants used to raid the ex-prince’s residences in February were “unlawful”.
- But the force has retained the material seized under the warrants while legal proceedings continue into whether it can be used in ongoing investigations.
- Warrants being quashed “does not bring an investigation to an end, or mean the whole investigation was unlawful,” the judge said.
- The wrong type of warrant was used by police, the judge ruled.
- It did not include the power to seize documents under legal privilege.
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What happens now?
Thames Valley Police still hope to use materials seized from the 66-year-old’s addresses in the ongoing criminal investigation into him over alleged misconduct in public office.
Thames Valley Police made an application in June which would allow them to keep the evidence taken during the searches. Mountbatten-Windsor opposes the force’s bid to retain the evidence, with a hearing in the case set to be held privately next year.
How does Andrew live now?
While isolated publicly from the Royal Family, Mountbatten-Windsor is said to be leading a comfortable lifestyle “of the upper echelons” at Marsh Farm, his new home on the Sandringham Estate in Norfolk, whilst footing substantial legal bills. How is he staying afloat?
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A much-anticipated Government review, the first of three aimed at cutting the welfare bill, has found the conditions are on the rise as more young people seek support.
Have ADHD and autism been overdiagnosed in recent years?
The Government’s review by Professor Peter Fogey, published today, concluded ADHD and autism are not overdiagnosed “at scale” but a growing number of people are incentivised to seek a diagnosis as the main way to access support. It found diagnosis has “risen dramatically” in recent years and the current system brings a “serious risk of overdiagnosis” in the future.
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What did the review recommend?
Take action now to help those in need of support
Prepare for benefits cuts
A needs-led approach should focus on participation rather than diagnosis.
Fast-track waiting lists
People on lists should be reviewed and support offered to those waiting.
Reduce medication
Deprescribing and regular medication reviews should be widespread practice.
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Streeting wrong about overdiagnosis, says author
“There has been a rise in distress and mental ill health amongst young people which is very, very real…. We need to support young people’s mental health early… Rebuilding this support must be a priority”
Professor Peter fonagy, author of the report which was comissioned by then-health secretary wes streeting
Watch more from The i Paper
Local authorities in London, and major towns and cities in the Midlands, Yorkshire, and the South West will be hit the hardest by this extended rise in sales, with councils still working their way through thousands of applications.
Housing experts welcomed the 2024 reduction in discounts but said the new data showed that the Housing Secretary, Angela Rayner, would have a “leaky housing bucket” for years.
The i Paper analysis of council papers and responses shows that more than 14,000 homes will be sold this year and next against the 10,450 replacements the Government predicts over the same period.
Birmingham expected to sell 1,500 homes this year but has managed just 314, with 5,000 queued up and 100 new applications arriving each month as it considers recruiting more lawyers to help clear its backlog.
Wolverhampton council said it had a “high number” of applications awaiting a decision from the district valuer, part of HM Revenue & Customs’ Valuation Office Agency, which helps to assess the value of homes before sale.
Leeds forecasts 1,150 Right to Buy sales over the next two years. Sheffield expects to sell 420 homes over the same period after receiving an “unusually high” number of applications before the cut to discounts was put in place.
“As a result, Right to Buy applications and sales are being processed across several financial years,” a spokesperson for Sheffield said. “The council, along with stock-holding local authorities from across the country, has called on the Government to enact further restrictions to the Right to Buy scheme so we can protect this vital resource for future generations.”
Other councils told The i Paper they had “significant concerns” about the loss of their homes as they continued to process applications. Two authorities – Hull and Gateshead – said they have lost much-needed family-sized homes through the Right to Buy surge.
Councils can keep the income from sales and have been told they should “quickly” deploy it to build replacements, the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government said. The Government’s Right to Buy reforms would give councils “breathing space” to replace the homes they lost, a spokesperson added.
But Caroline Jackson, leader of Lancaster City Council said that asking councils to pay for replacements with sales receipts was “specious”.
“There is a big percentage of local authorities which are struggling to use the receipts from Right to Buy to replace homes lost through Right to Buy,” she said. “It takes the income from three homes to replace just one new home and there is no top-up funding from Government.”
Alistair McIntosh, chief executive of Housing Quality Network, a consultancy which advises councils on Right to Buy, said the surge in sales had made a “mess” of the Government’s ambitions to boost supply. “Right to Buy can help people who are relatively poor to get their foot on the ladder, but it is a hole in the bucket of housing supply,” he said. “We are losing homes quicker than we are building them. It isn’t getting families out of bed & breakfasts.”
Following the 2024 reduction in discounts, the Government is planning further restrictions in the Social Housing Bill, which it says will further reduce sales.
A spokesperson for the housing ministry said its overhaul of Right to Buy will result in “more social homes [being] built than sold over the next decade… We will also get councils building again by investing £39bn in social and affordable homes, prioritising social rent homes and council housebuilding”.