This time last year Rachel Reeves walked up to a podium in Downing Street for one of the most bizarre press conferences in British political history. Scheduled for the surreal time of 8.10am, it involved the Chancellor publicly leaking her own Budget. And furiously trashing the previous one.
Twelve months before, she had pledged she would not demand additional tax rises, either from the British people or British business. Now those promises were being junked. In order to rectify the economic mess she had created, ‘we will all have to contribute’, she declared. ‘Each of us must do our bit.’
On Wednesday, John Healey will unveil his own Budget. There has been significant speculation in the past few weeks over which grand economic philosophy will underpin it. Some have claimed it will be a Keynesian attempt to kickstart growth. Others have suggested it will borrow heavily from Anthony Crosland, the former president of the Board of Trade and guru of the 1960s Labour social democrats, who Healey referenced in his party conference speech.
But the reality is he has taken his inspiration from a more recent Labour chancellor. According to a senior minister: ‘John’s looked at what Rachel Reeves did. And has made sure he does the opposite.’
This stark difference in approach has initially been seen in the pre-Budget presentation. The run-up to the 2025 statement was characterised by a series of increasingly chaotic and contradictory leaks and counter-leaks, culminating in the Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally publishing its analysis – including all the relevant data tables – before Reeves had even started speaking.
Everything has been kept tightly under wraps this year.
On Wednesday, John Healey will unveil his own Budget. There has been significant speculation in the past few weeks over which grand economic philosophy will underpin it
An official told Dan Hodges: 'Rachel and Keir lost control in the run-up to the last Budget. Andy and John were very clear we need to keep things properly managed'
‘We’re not going to be holding any emergency breakfast press conferences,’ one official told me. ‘Rachel and Keir lost control in the run-up to the last Budget. Andy and John were very clear we need to keep things properly managed.’
The same level of self-discipline has extended to the wider Budget framing. ‘Hope For Britain’ will be the tagline of Wednesday’s statement. And while this latest iteration of the Burnham ‘Hopey-Changey-Vibey-Thing’ will generate a collective groan from hard-bitten Westminster watchers, it represents a clear and deliberate break from the doom-mongering that characterised the Reeves Budgets.
‘Rachel was too negative,’ a minister explained. ‘She basically talked down her own economy. All the “black hole” talk undermined growth. John isn’t going to make the same mistake.’
The more optimistic tone is also set to draw a clear line between the Chancellor and his political rivals.
‘He’s going to directly challenge Nigel Farage and the people who he sees as constantly talking Britain down,’ one Healey ally explains. ‘Farage is supposed to have this banking and business background, so he should know you can’t sell Britain internationally if you are constantly undermining the British brand.’
Learning the lessons of Reeves’ failure will also extend to the substance of this week’s speech.
One of the key measures will be further steps to flesh out Andy Burnham’s cherished devolution agenda. More details will be given of the way he intends to distribute a proportion of the income tax take to elected mayors, and how he intends to broaden the plan to areas that do not have the same devolved structures. A second area will be a much clearer stance on taking the difficult political decisions necessary to get to grips with stuttering growth and the cost-of-living crisis.
As The Mail on Sunday reports today, Burnham and Healey have decided to give the green light to drilling the Rosebank oil field.
Former ministers, including Peter Kyle, have briefed journalists that they wanted to see more from the Government to boost the economy and tackle the cost of living crisis
According to a minister: ‘Both Andy and John have decided Rosebank needs to go ahead. The economic and energy security case is so strong, and the Energy Wealth Fund will help mitigate concerns around the environment.
‘The unions are strongly behind the decision, and so are the bulk of the Parliamentary Labour Party. It’s the only sensible decision.’
Again, this represents a markedly different approach to the strategy pursued by Reeves and Keir Starmer. In their increasingly desperate efforts to stabilise their Government, they careened from one contradictory stance and policy announcement to another. And in the process of attempting to please everyone, ended up satisfying precisely nobody.
‘What you’ll see this week is the economic and political strategies aligning,’ one No10 insider explained. ‘There’s going to be a clear expansion of the devolution agenda. And there’s going to be further evidence that Andy is going to lead a Government that is prepared to take tough choices.’
Which will again set both the Prime Minister and his Chancellor apart from their predecessors.
In the past couple of weeks an effort has been launched by Reeves and her supporters to begin to try to recast her tainted legacy. They have pointed to the recent IMF report which upgraded some key economic and growth statistics. A week ago she stood up in the audience of an Oxford economics seminar to defend her record, and received a round of applause.
But within No10 and No11 there is currently minimal appetite to embrace Reeves Revisionism. Partly this is because there is a feeling that the last Budget, and the disarray that accompanied it, drove the final nail into the Starmer administration.
There has also been frustration at the agitation last week from former ministers Steve Reed, Darren Jones and Peter Kyle, who briefed journalists that they wanted to see more from the Government to boost the economy and tackle the cost-of-living crisis.
This follows on from an intervention last month from Kyle, the former Business Secretary, in which he said: ‘I think we need to up our ambition.
‘I think we need to act with more urgency when it comes to economic growth.’
The reality is that neither Burnham nor Healey are currently minded to take lectures from the ministers who they feel helped guide Keir Starmer on to the political rocks.
As one friend of the new Chancellor observed: ‘One of the problems Rachel had was she was too reluctant to challenge the prevailing Treasury orthodoxy.
‘John has found there is definitely a group-think to this place. And you need to be very strong in pushing back on it.
‘That was one of the big areas where Keir came unstuck. He wasn’t prepared to properly take on the established way of doing things.’
This week John Healey delivers his first Budget. It’s not yet clear what details will be contained within the famous red box. Except for a slightly abstract message of optimism and hope.