Andy Burnham could lose support from Labour voters at the next election with his radical pledge to remove the state pension triple lock, a poll for The i Paper has revealed.
The Prime Minister used his conference speech in Liverpool to water down the funding mechanism to a double lock, under which the annual state pension will rise in line with either inflation or 2.5 per cent.
The money will help fund a national care service, which Burnham said would be funded by everyone to be available for anyone that needed it.
More than half of all voters – 53 per cent – want to see the triple lock remain in place, while 13 per cent are opposed, according to the survey by BMG Research.
Snooker champion Graeme Dott jailed for child sex abuse
Former snooker world champion Graeme Dott has been found guilty of sexually abusing two primary school-age children.
In August, he was found guilty of two counts of lewd, indecent and libidinous behaviour and on Tuesday he was sentenced to seven years in prison.
What you need to know
The High Court in Edinburgh heard how Dott subjected a girl and a boy to multiple incidents of abuse, with the girl targeted between 1993 and 1996 and the boy between 2006 and 2010.
The jury heard Dott exposed himself in front of both children, touched them inappropriately and kissed them.
What did the victims say?
- One of Dott’s victims, now in her 40s, told the court Dott had sexually abused her on multiple occasions.
- The second victim, now in his late 20s, also said he was sexually abused on multiple occasions.
- Lord Harrower, the judge, told Dott he had “robbed the complainers of a significant part of their childhood”.
- He added the behaviour bore “the hallmarks of grooming”.
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Men feel happier than women about how they look, study finds
Researchers at the BI Norwegian Business School also found men overestimated their IQ, while British people generally rated themselves less attractive than other nationalities.
What did the study find?
- Men consistently gave themselves higher ratings for physical attractiveness than women.
- Participants scored themselves between 0 and 100.
- On average, men scored 6-8 per cent higher than women.
- How attractive the participants were considered by other people was not part of the study.
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A closer look at the study
The study also found that men and women with higher IQs tended to rate themselves as less attractive.
Britons generally rated themselves less attractive than their American, Australian, Canadian and South African counterparts. Researchers suggested this could be a symptom of British manners, with more emphasis on “modesty or understatement”.
What does this mean?
Professor Adrian Furnham, who led the study, noted men often overestimate their IQ, while women typically underestimate it.
He said the similar gap in attractiveness self-ratings could be another indication of “male hubris versus female humility”. He added that more intelligent people could be “more honest”.
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How the UK could rejoin the EU, step by step
Labour grandees have urged Andy Burnham to start preparing to reverse Brexit – but high hurdles would have to be overcome.
Why is it coming up now?
Sadiq Khan said he wants Britain to return to the customs union “almost straight away” and provision in the next Labour manifesto to reverse Brexit without a referendum.
However, experts are sceptical. Polls indicate a narrow majority of Britons support the idea of rejoining, but it may require more support before we could rejoin.
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What the process could look like
Experts warned it could also take five to 10 years to get back in.
Here’s how rejoining might look:
- A second vote is not technically necessary but leading experts think a referendum would likely be needed to provide a stable mandate to start negotiations with the EU.
- If the UK applied to rejoin, the EU would need to ensure the applicant met the 1993 Copenhagen Criteria.
- If talks then began, there would be a series of big issues to resolve.
- The EU could demand that Britain use the Euro and become part of the Schengen Area.
The expert analysis
Experts disagree on the likelihood the UK could be allowed to opt-out of either the Schengen Area or the Euro. Dr Thomas Sampson, economist and Brexit expert at LSE, suggested it is possible the EU would be willing to let Britain rejoin under the same deal.
But others suggested the EU would want to lock the UK into the Euro to “make it harder for [us] to ever leave”.
- The European Commission would need to approve any deal for the UK to rejoin. A majority of MEPs in the European Parliament would also have to vote in favour and all the bloc’s member states.
- Professor Catherine Barnard, an expert in EU law at the University of Cambridge, thinks negotiations and ratification could take as long as a decade.
- If talks did not start until after a Labour general election victory in 2029, it could be 2040 before Britain was back in the bloc.
Watch more from The i Paper
New treatment for ultra-rare ‘second skeleton’ disorder
Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) is a “devastating, irreversible” genetic condition.
What is FOP?
- According to the charity FOP Friends, there are around 70 known people with FOP in the UK.
It is one of the rarest diseases in the world, affecting around one in a million people.
FOP is a genetic condition which leads to the body creating extra bones in locations where they should not form, including inside muscles, tendons and ligaments.
What is the treatment?
A new “disease modifying” treatment has been shown to reduce new bone growth by more than 90 per cent, reduce flare-ups and potentially offer hope for new surgical options in the future.
The drug garetosmab is an antibody that blocks a protein called activin A, which has been found to be critical in the development of new abnormal growth development in people with FOP.
63 adults were involved in the trial, which saw a massive reduction in flare-ups in the groups which received the treatment.
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Writing in , the authors said they expect the drug to enable “long term preservation of mobility and function”.
Chris Bedford-Gay, FOP Friends founder, said the community “has desperately waited for a way to stop FOP in its tracks”. He added this “is the moment a life-changing treatment comes that bit closer”.
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More than half of international students are influenced by British fictional characters when deciding to study at universities here.
2,500 UK-based students from the US, China, India, Pakistan and Nigeria were surveyed for the British Council.
What are the key findings?
- It found that 83 per cent of international students said British culture was an important reason why they decided to study here.
- 59 per cent said fictional British characters were a draw, with 19 per cent citing Peppa Pig and 21 per cent Mr Bean as examples.
- British cultural icons like Princess Diana and David Beckham were also a major influence.
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Importance of soft power
A majority (62 per cent) of respondents said the UK music scene had been a major or strong influence on their decision to study here.
Among those who cited music, Ed Sheeran was the top named artist with 18 per cent, followed by Dua Lipa, Coldplay and Harry Styles.
What does this mean?
Catriona McCarthy, the British Council’s interim director for education, said the results tell us it is “crucial” that Britain remains “culturally vibrant” in order to retain its status as a global leader in higher education and attract the best students from around the world.
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How AI could help screen for type 2 diabetes
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology could be used to analyse speech to screen people for the disease, a study suggests.
What you need to know
- The tool was trained using more than 63,000 voice samples from more than 21,000 people in the UK and US.
- It was trained to detect changes in speech which have been linked to type 2 diabetes, such as increased hoarseness and an inability to control breath.
- The study found that the speech model gave a higher risk score to those who reported having type 2 diabetes 80 per cent of the time.
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How effective is it?
Giedre Cepukaityte, research scientist at tech company thymia, said the technology “opens a new route to screening for diabetes”. But she emphasised it is “not a replacement for a blood test”.
The technology performed well across different ages and genders, but its performance was lower on Black patients.
It also wasn’t as effective with recordings from people with heart disease, high blood pressure or obesity.
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AI gets a cautious welcome
Dr Lucy Chambers, head of research impact and communications at Diabetes UK, said: “AI-based technologies could help identify more people who may benefit from diagnostic blood tests, but it’s crucial that they are rigorously designed and tested to make sure no-one slips through the net.”
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How quickly triple lock could end – and possible replacement
The future of the triple lock has been thrown into question after reports Andy Burnham is being told to scrap the scheme to fund his social care plans.
Experts say that at some point, the policy will have to be replaced with a way of increasing the state pension that is “more sustainable”.
A ‘double lock’
- A double lock linked to either earnings growth or inflation has been suggested as a possible alternative.
- Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell, said the starting point for this would determine what a “reasonable value” for the state pension should be, most likely as a percentage of median earnings.
- After deciding that figure, Selby said, you put in place “a sensible plan to reach that level”.
Link to earnings
Maike Currie, vice president of personal finance at PensionBee, said the simplest replacement would be an earnings-only link. This would mean the state pension broadly maintains its value relative to working people’s incomes.
But the Institute for Fiscal Studies has previously recommended introducing the “smoothed” earnings link, which means pensioners receive inflation protection if inflation exceeds earnings.
Simple link to inflation
- Former pensions minister, Steve Webb, said another approach could link the state pension to inflation.
- This approach would create “big savings”, he said.
- But it would also substantially weaken the state pension at a time when millions of retirees are coming up to state pension age with very modest private savings.
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Who will be the most affected?
Currie said the triple lock being scrapped would impact people of all ages.
“For someone close to retirement, scrapping it could have a more immediate impact on their expected income,” she said.
As for younger generations, “the effect could potentially be greater over the long term, as smaller annual increases compound over decades”.
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But among people who voted Labour at the last election, support for the measure – under which the state pension rises by whichever is highest out of average earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent – is a more substantial 56 per cent.
There is also overwhelming support for the measure among Reform voters, suggesting Burnham’s fight to fend off Nigel Farage on polling day could be all the more difficult if he chooses to gamble with scrapping the triple lock.
The scale of Burnham’s battle
Four times as many people support the triple lock as oppose the triple lock – 53 per cent to 13 per cent. Some 19 per cent neither support nor oppose it, while 16 per cent said they did not know.
This underscores the scale of the Prime Minister’s battle to convince voters that losing the cast iron protection, first introduced by David Cameron’s coalition government in 2011, is worth it to fund a full social care service for all who need it, free at the point of use.
However, there has been a shift towards opposition to the triple lock. The proportion of all voters who support it has fallen slightly since May 2025, when 57 per cent of people backed it. And the proportion of Britons who oppose it has risen over the same period – from 7 per cent in May 2025 to 13 per cent now.
While public opinion is still stacked against scrapping it, it shows that some of the support is soft and could be further eroded over the next three years.
Those who said they “strongly support” the triple lock make up 30 per cent, while 23 per cent say they “somewhat support” it.
Younger voters could hold the key
Unsurprisingly, the youngest voters, 18 to 24-year-olds, are the only age group more in favour of scrapping the triple lock than keeping it. Just 23 per cent of them support the mechanism, while 29 per cent are opposed.
After the age of 25, more voters are in favour of the triple lock than are against it.
Burnham’s courting of the youth vote, through viral clips on TikTok, is well documented. And the next election will be the first ever in the UK where 16 and 17-year-olds have the vote.
There is also a strong argument to be made that, by the time of the 2029 election, pensioners will have enjoyed nearly two decades of their state pension incomes protected, while younger generations have struggled with a combination of rising rents, higher youth unemployment and gloomy prospects due to poor economic growth.
Among 25 to 34-year-olds, 40 per cent are in favour of the triple lock while 14 per cent oppose it.
This breakdown is broadly the same among voters up to the age of 54, according to the BMG poll.
But after the age of 55, backing for the triple lock soars as people contemplate retirement. Among the 55 to 64 age group, 63 per cent support the measure while just 7 per cent are against it.
And for those aged 65 and over, 80 per cent are in favour while just 4 per cent are opposed.
Scrapping the triple lock will be a key 2029 battleground
The poll shows that support for the state pension mechanism is stronger towards the right of the political spectrum – suggesting that Reform and the Conservatives could lean into this issue to shore up their power bases at the next election.
It also shows the risk of the political gamble Burnham could be prepared to take on. Labour will be desperate to win over Reform voters at the next election, as well as appeal to wavering voters who are sceptical about it being scrapped.
Among those who voted Reform in 2024, 68 per cent support the triple lock, while just 5 per cent are opposed. For those who say they plan to vote for Farage’s party at the next election, backing for the triple lock is still substantial – 62 per cent, with 9 per cent opposed.
Among those who voted Tory in 2024, 70 per cent support the triple lock, while just 9 per cent are opposed. People planning to vote Conservative in 2029 are still overwhelmingly in favour of keeping it – 69 per cent versus 12 per cent.
Some 56 per cent of 2024 Labour voters are in favour of the triple lock, compared to 14 per cent against. The figures do suggest an opportunity for Burnham, however: support for the triple lock among those who plan to vote Labour in 2029 has dipped slightly, to 52 per cent, with 14 per cent opposed.
What would the public want instead?
If Burnham does decide to ditch the triple lock at the next election, the public would likely be divided over what should replace it, the poll suggests.
However, these figures do suggest that, if there is a proper debate about alternatives, voters would appear to accept a “single” or “double” lock version which still offered some protection to the state pension.
Three in five voters would be happy for a “single lock” under which the state pension would rise in line with average wages. Around a quarter – 24 per cent – say it should rise higher than average wages, while 6 per cent say it should increase at less than that rate.
If presented with a menu of options, a link to inflation would be the most popular possible replacement – 28 per cent would back this option.
Some 16 per cent would want it to rise in line with wages, while a further 16 per cent say it should rise with wages in the long run but would want it to be protected in the years when prices rise faster than wages – a form of double lock.
Just 8 per cent would want it to go up by 2.5 per cent a year, even if wages and prices were rising more slowly.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,515 British adults between 23 and 24 September. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.