The World Cup and record hot weather in June helped Britain’s economy remain resilient in the second quarter despite Iran war cost pressures, but warnings are mounting over a year-end hit to growth.

Official figures showed gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.4% between April and June, with better-than-forecast growth of 0.3% in June as hospitality and leisure firms received a boost from football fever and the prolonged hot weather.

It marked a slowdown from 0.6% growth in the first three months of the year, but the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said growth remained “relatively robust” in the quarter, ending a buoyant first half of the year in spite of the Middle East conflict.

The growth in June came against expectations for a flat performance and followed no growth in May, revised down from 0.1% growth previously estimated, and a 0.1% contraction in April.

Food and drink firms were among those to benefit from the start of the World Cup on June 11, while television and advertising also benefited from the event, which saw England reach the semi-finals in July.

Hot weather also helped boost retailers, as well as some manufacturing firms, hotels and those in the amusement and recreation sector.

But the data comes amid worries over the impact of the Middle East conflict.

It emerged on Wednesday that Treasury experts briefed the Prime Minister to expect the economy to barely grow next year if disruption to the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Iran war continues until the end of 2026.

Internal modelling from the Treasury suggests UK GDP could see growth as low as 0.3% in 2027, according to Government sources.

Experts said after the latest GDP data that resilient growth is set to pull back sharply during the final six months of 2026.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the Item Club, cautioned growth will be “very weak” in the second half as energy price hikes and soaring fuel costs weigh on consumer spending power.

Ofgem’s energy price cap increased 13% at the beginning of July and is expected to rise again in October as the Iran war sends wholesale costs surging, although some of this will be offset by the Government’s move to cut VAT from power bills.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, added: “The economy is likely to shift down a gear over the second half of the year, despite a temporary boost from the World Cup and the hot weather.

“The pressure on household finances – and for Government do something about it – will only grow.”

Responding to the GDP figures, Chancellor John Healey said: “I know people are worried about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on their cost of living, which has been too high for too long and it has added pressure on British businesses.

“This is an active, hands-on Government, putting British interests first – giving breathing space to those feeling the strain, making our country more resilient and bringing hope back.”

The ONS figures showed the dominant services sector grew by 0.4% in June, though this was partly offset by falls of 0.5% in manufacturing and 0.1% in construction.

While some firms were helped by hot weather, June’s extreme heatwave – which saw three consecutive days of record-breaking temperatures peaking above 37C – also knocked parts of the economy, with some construction firms reporting a hit, while in education, many schools were closed because of the heatwave.

Over the second quarter as a whole, the services sector grew by 0.5%, with 0.3% expansion across construction and 1% growth in manufacturing.