'End of days' atmosphere at Stormont as party relationships deteriorate

A picture of Stormont on a sunny day, with blue skies.

Take Stormont, throw in a looming assembly election, add fresh rows over the Irish language and the ingredients for another Christmas crisis are all there.

It's certainly a tried-and-tested recipe and one some feel is about to be repeated, with Alliance Party Agriculture Minister Andrew Muir saying there's an "end of days" atmosphere about the place.

There's no doubt relations between the largest parties sharing power - Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - are as bad as they can be and have been deteriorating for months.

What was already a difficult form of doing government has undoubtedly been made even harder by the fallout from the Drumcree parading dispute.

When the DUP leader Gavin Robinson said it could not be business as usual at Stormont after First Minister Michelle O'Neill's alleged lawbreaking by participating in protests blocking the Orange Order from marching down the Garvaghy Road, he meant it.

The party has stopped all joint executive engagements with O'Neill and refused to grant permission for the first minister to attend an economic summit with the prime minister last month.

This week the DUP initiated the latest step in its response aimed at frustrating business with Sinn Féin, moving a veto mechanism known as a petition of concern, in a bid to block Sinn Féin legislation around Irish medium education.

It was immediately lambasted by Sinn Féin, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), Alliance Party and others who accused the DUP of disrespect and sectarianising the Irish language.

Now where have we heard that accusation before?

Even the most casual observer of Northern Ireland politics can remember the shadow cast over Stormont by the Líofa scandal, incidentally the 10th anniversary of which is next month.

Just two days before Christmas 2016, then-Communities Minister (now Education Minister) Paul Givan cut funding for the Irish bursary scheme, prompting a scathing political backlash.

It was deemed the final straw for Sinn Féin's then-Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness to pull his party out of government just weeks later, amid a major row with the DUP over the botched cash-for-ash scheme.

Sinn Féin later said it would not re-enter power-sharing without an Irish language act, with then-DUP leader Arlene Foster rejecting the demand, saying: "If you feed a crocodile it will keep coming back for more."

It was a soundbite that set the tone for the election campaign and surge in Sinn Féin support that followed, with the resulting fallout leaving Stormont dormant for three years before its resurrection in early 2020, only to collapse again in 2022 after the DUP pulled out of power-sharing, this time due to the Brexit debacle.

Getting it back after that took another two years.

Former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood addresses the media following a meeting at Stormont Castle.

On Tuesday, former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood took to social media criticising the DUP over its latest tactic, saying: "Do they not remember the Líofa grant? It's just act of self-harm after act of self-harm."

The circumstances Stormont finds itself in right now may certainly seem dismal, but still feel a good deal removed from the makings of a Líofa or crocodile 2.0 moment.

Sinn Féin is adamant it will not be the one to pull the institutions down this time.

Having secured the first minister role for the first time in 2022 with the campaign slogan of making O'Neill a "first minister for all", the party's mantra this time is "no going back".

Buoyed by an energised nationalist base over how it responded to Drumcree, Sinn Féin doesn't appear worried by the DUP's tactics and appears to have calculated that it stands to gain more next May by remaining in office and pushing for reform of the institutions.

DUP leader Gavin Robinson speaking to the media at Parliament Buildings, Stormont in Belfast.

The DUP for its part has been putting pressure on the government to legislate for sanctions against Stormont ministers who breach their code of conduct or break the law.

Robinson remains of the view that taking his party out of the executive, although it would remove O'Neill from power too, would only punish the public and lead to Westminster taking decisions over Northern Ireland's head.

On Wednesday, he said there were "fundamentally important things" that the executive still needs to do including agreeing a budget and getting pay awards made to public sector staff - though right now the chances of getting agreement on that appear particularly slim.

It was telling though that Robinson chose not to be definitive when asked several times if that meant he would not crash the institutions, instead saying his party's participation should not be "taken for granted".

As the countdown to the assembly and council elections gets closer that position may become harder to sustain, with dissenting voices in unionism calling for tougher action against O'Neill.

Robinson has had a relentless couple of years in charge of the DUP and is also facing into a dual electoral threat from rival unionists.

The strategic gamble is whether walking away would help the DUP prevent potential bloodletting to the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), or risk sending more moderate unionist voters in the direction of the Ulster Unionist Party's (UUP) Jon Burrows.

For now the DUP remains reluctantly wedded to its position inside the executive but will that position hold into 2027?

O'Neill is talking. Her blond hair is down. She's wearing a white top and a checked jacket. The background is blurred.

There is a growing view among some that it would equally suit the DUP and Sinn Féin if the other party was to pull the plug on power-sharing this time.

One Stormont source summed up the situation as such: "They're poking each other in the eye as much as possible and pushing each other to the brink, but they want the other one to jump off it first."

In truth a collapse might also help the Alliance Party, which has tended to do well when Stormont isn't functioning by "demanding better".

Its critics say that party can't demand better when it holds two ministries in this iteration of the executive whose job it is to deliver change.

If nothing else suspending power-sharing would merely lead to a highly polarised campaign, after what has already felt like full-blown election mode for most of this year.

Whether Stormont falls or stays standing until next May, what happens after the election is also providing plenty of food for thought.

And given the tensions, it's increasingly hard to see a new executive rising to the occasion next year.

Original source 'End of days' atmosphere at Stormont as party relationships deteriorate

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