End of the budget getaway to Spain and Portugal as the price of jet fuel soars

Budget holidays to Spain and Portugal could become a thing of the past for Britons as jet fuel prices hit record highs and airlines scale back capacity.

As the aviation industry enters its first winter since the outbreak of the Iran war, record-high fuel costs have led to airlines calling off hundreds of thousands of flights.

Customers with existing bookings either weeks or months away are being informed their departures have been grounded – many are not even rearranged for another date.

The winter period presents unique operating conditions as lower demand makes services more prone to higher costs, which now jeopardises the future of festive weekend getaways to popular holiday destinations from the UK, including Portugal and Spain.

Father fined after son’s fatal fall from Cyprus hotel

A British man has been handed a 3,000-euro (£2,500) fine after his two-year-old son fell nearly 40 feet to his death from the fourth-floor window of a hotel in Cyprus.

Joshua Foster arriving at Paphos District Court in Cyprus, for a sentencing hearing, after he pleaded guilty to causing the death of his two-year-old son who fell from a hotel window in Cyprus in July. Picture date: Friday October 16, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: James Manning/the Press Association

What happened?

Joshua Foster thought the window of their holiday apartment was closed when he placed the boy on a sill to show him the view of a waterpark and “lost control” of him, the court previously heard.

Joshua Foster arriving at Paphos District Court in Cyprus for a sentencing hearing, after he pleaded guilty to causing the death of his two-year-old son who fell from a hotel window in Cyprus in July. Picture date: Friday October 16, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: James Manning/the Press Association
File photo dated 05/10/26 of the King Evelthon Beach Hotel and Resort in Chlorakas, Cyprus. A British man is due to be sentenced for causing the death of his two-year-old son, who fell from a fourth floor window of a hotel in Cyprus during a family holiday. Joshua Foster had placed the toddler on a windowsill to show him the view of a waterpark, not realising the window was open, Paphos District Court previously heard. The 37-year-old pleaded guilty to causing death through a reckless, rash or dangerous act and will be sentenced at the same court on Friday. Issue date: Friday October 16, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Annabel Lee-Ellis/the Press Association

The boy fell from the fourth floor of the five-star on 12 July, the first day of the family’s holiday.

More details

  • Foster’s lawyer told the court the boy noticed a waterpark outside as the family waited for an elevator.
  • The lawyer said Foster pushed the lift button, placed the child on the windowsill and the “inconceivable” unfolded before he could react.
  • Foster thought there was protective glass and did not realise that section of the 2.85 metre (9.3ft) wide, 1.2 metre (3.9ft) high window was open, it was said.
  • The boy was taken to hospital but despite efforts to resuscitate him, he was pronounced dead.

The 37-year-old auditor, whose lawyer said he has no previous convictions and showed “clear” remorse, was held in custody for eight days immediately after the incident.

Foster appeared at Paphos District Court on Friday for sentencing having pleaded guilty to a charge of causing death through a reckless, rash or dangerous act.

After holding back tears as his sentence was read out at the 25-minute hearing, Foster hugged his lawyer and parents.

Joshua Foster (right) arriving at Paphos District Court in Cyprus for a sentencing hearing, after he pleaded guilty to causing the death of his two-year-old son who fell from a hotel window in Cyprus in July. Picture date: Friday October 16, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: James Manning/the Press Association
Heat pump on a facade with green plants

Why heat pump prices are set to fall


Boiler manufacturers could face having their targets for selling heat pumps more than doubled by 2030-31 – even as ministers consider cutting the grants that help households pay for them.

What’s the latest?

It was reported on Monday that Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has been asked to identify savings at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), with hundreds of millions of pounds potentially coming from the .

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 28: Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh speaks during day two of the Labour Party Conference at Liverpool Experience Campus on September 28, 2026 in Liverpool, England. Labour enters its annual party conference with a polling boost holding a four-point lead with 27% of the vote under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. He took over the leadership in July this year and has since driven a turnaround in the party's fortunes. (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)
Heat pump

The scheme offers towards eligible heat-pump installations – which can cost up to £15,000 – off the gas grid that replace oil or LPG heating.

Potential impact

80,000

Since 2022, the scheme has supported nearly 80,000 heat pump installations.

Heat pumps can involve higher upfront costs than conventional gas boilers.

What now?

The potential cuts could make heat pumps harder for some households to afford.

That’s because it comes as manufacturers face stronger incentives to obtain credits for qualifying installations.

Proposed changes

  • Ministers have proposed raising the target for heat pump installations in proportion to boiler sales – with payments required for falling short.
  • The proposed changes would raise the target from 8 per cent of relevant boiler sales in 2026-27 to 18 per cent by 2030-31.
  • Part of the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, the plans are subject to consultation and not yet final.

Lower prices?

However, industry insiders said that increased targets could actually lead to lower prices as manufacturers compete.

Recession Global Market Crisis Stock Red Price Drop Arrow Down Chart Fall, Stock Market Exchange Analysis Business And Finance, Inflation Deflation Investment Abstract Red Background 3d rendering
Air Source heat pump fitted outside a new home development

This happened with the electric vehicle mandate as makers offered bigger discounts if they were failing to reach their targets.

Part of wider plans

The Government says the targets were set on the basis that they could be met through supported installations in existing buildings, with eligible new-build installations providing an additional route to compliance.

The DESNZ estimates the proposed 18 per cent target would equate to up to 236,000 heat pumps in 2030-31. The Government’s wider ambition is to install over 450,000 heat pumps a year by 2030, including about 250,000 in existing homes.

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The numbers that show where Trump has really damaged his own party

Donald Trump’s popularity has plummeted this year, as the repercussions of his war with Iran drag on, hitting his Republican Party’s chances of holding on to power in next month’s crucial midterm elections.

Where Trump’s approval has fallen the most

In ruby red Texas, Trump has dropped 27 per cent from a net positive approval rating to a net negative of 21 per cent.

YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO - OCTOBER 12: U.S. President Donald Trump greets supporters during an election rally at the Covelli Centre on October 12, 2026 in Youngstown, Ohio. President Trump is holding the rally to campaign for local Republican candidates in Ohio. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
  • 55 per cent of voters in Ohio opted
    for Trump in 2024. Now polling shows
    55 per cent disapprove of his performance. Other states like Kentucky, Wyoming and Oklahoma have also seen sharp drops for the President.

A knock-on effect for Republican candidates

Trump’s popularity has taken a hit in every US state, but the most dramatic declines have been in parts of the country that backed him in 2024, leaving Republican strategists scrambling to manage the fallout.

In every key battleground state, his abysmal approval ratings seem to be harming Republican candidates, while boosting their Democrat rivals.

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Which seats are up for election?

Thirty-five of 100 seats in the Senate are being contested this year, with Democrats needing to make a net gain of four to take control of the upper chamber.

The east side of the US Capitol Building, with its grand neoclassical architecture, is a majestic sight before the influx of tourists. Located in Washington, D.C., the Capitol Building is the seat of the United States Congress and a symbol of the American government. Washington DC, USA. May 2024
President Donald Trump speaks during a dinner in the Rose Garden of the White House, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, with
the Democrats likely to win a majority. Trump’s Republican Party currently holds
a majority in both chambers.

Meet the youngest generation of Trump voters now turning their backs on Maga

For the young people whose first ever presidential vote was in 2024, the past few years have proved a brutal lesson in the realities of national politics.

Why everyone seems to be sick right now

In the past few weeks, more and more people have reported coming down with a bug – complaining of a streaming nose, cough, or temperature. I wasn’t imagining it: the flu season has started earlier this year.

Early flu season

  • Rates of flu infections in the UK are still relatively low, but they are rising, the UK Health Security Agency said – even though it is only October.
Woman lying on a sofa while having a flu and feeling sick.She using a heat pillow for her stomage and a bit of medicine standing on the table.

It means GPs – on top of the usual surge
in coughs and colds that happens when children go back to school – have seen
a broader rise in consultations for
respiratory viruses.

Why is there a winter peak?

Scientists still debate why respiratory viruses peak every winter. There are several possible reasons:

  • Viruses survive for longer in colder air
  • Human nasal cells may function less well in the cold
  • Our tendency to mix socially indoors rather than outdoors
  • Drier winter air may cause virus-laden moisture droplets to evaporate, shrink into tiny particles and float further

Global influence

Peak flu season is usually in December or January, but what’s going on in other parts
of the world can change that. Temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere experience the same cycle in reverse,
with a flu peak in their winter – June, July
and August.

The flu has got him working from home today

This is important because the circulating flu viruses accumulate small mutations all the time, called . The mix that predominates in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter predicts to some extent the mix that arrives in the UK a few months later.

Possible reasons

  • 1One reason for flu starting early this year could be that there has been a , one of the three main circulating flu strains, said Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a UKHSA epidemiologist.
  • 2Another explanation could be that Southern Hemisphere countries had a relatively late flu season in 2026, resulting in more people carrying the flu into the UK.

Keep an eye on it

An early start doesn’t mean the UK is necessarily headed for a worse flu season overall. The same happened last winter, yet the country ended up with a lower number of flu deaths than average.

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What to know as four dead in Oregon school shooting

A teacher and three children were killed in a shooting at a primary school in Bend, Oregon, on Thursday.

What happened?

Here’s what we know so far about the incident outside Bend’s Silver Rail Elementary School in central Oregon.

  • The shooting took place at around 1pm, local time (9pm BST) on Thursday.
  • Authorities initially responded to reports at 12.59pm of multiple gunshots fired at
    a car.
  • They later received calls the shooter had entered the school grounds.
  • Police subsequently directed the school to go into lockdown at 1.01pm.
  • The suspected shooter reportedly forced his way into the school by shooting through locked doors.
  • Upon arriving, officers found five people who “had succumbed to their injuries”, Bend Police Chief Mike Krantz said.

Victims as young as five

This included a teacher and three children aged five, eight and 11. A and a 54-year-old teacher were for treatment in . The police did not initially identify any of the victims and did not provide an age for the teacher who was killed.

Flowers are placed at a school sign, as people and a police officer stand nearby, following a shooting at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend, Oregon, US, October 15, 2026. REUTERS/David Ryder
ANKARA, TURKIYE - OCTOBER 16: An infographic titled "Oregon elementary school shooting" created in Ankara, Turkiye on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Elif Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Around 400 children are enrolled in Silver Rail, from kindergarten through fifth grade. About 40 people work at the school.

What else do we know?

  • The suspected shooter, a 16-year-old boy from Bend, was found dead inside the school when police arrived.
  • Authorities believe he was shot by “a community member” who saw him enter “and ”.
  • It is not yet clear whether the suspect, who has not been named, knew anyone at the school.
  • The armed bystander, also yet to be identified, was called a hero by Oregon Governor Tina Kotek.

Police response

Authorities cordoned off the school and have begun investigating the shooting, with an update expected on Friday. FBI Director Kash Patel said his agency would “make every resource they need available” in support of the investigation.

A vigil was held by local leaders on Thursday evening with other “opportunities to gather” planned for the coming days.

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‘We will stay with you’

We are horrified. This is the kind of things you hear about in other places and pray that it never happens here. To the families that have had loss tonight, we are with you and we will stay with you.

Steven cook, administrator of the local school district
Messages written on the ground at the site of a candlelight vigil at Drake Park for victims of the Silver Rail Elementary School shooting, in Bend, Oregon, US, October 15, 2026. REUTERS/David Ryder

Fuel prices surge

Since February, when the US-Israeli war with Iran war began, supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to the rocketing cost of fuel, which in turn threatens narrow profit margins for airlines. 

The International Air Transport Association has revealed that the price of a barrel of aviation fuel in Europe has almost doubled from $100 at the beginning of this year to $196.

EasyJet – Europe’s fifth biggest airline – claims its margins are as low as £6.08 per passenger and that coping with a further dramatic increase in fuel price is now no longer viable.

Only last month, Latvian airline airBaltic declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy as the cost of the Middle Eastern war “bites”. 

Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, told The i Paper that the Iranian conflict has forced oil traders to “rush” and “ship oil from other locations to Europe”.

He said: “We’re currently seeing record high rates, which also keeps prices up. Oil products and jet fuel can still be delivered but it remains pricey into 2027 and logistical mismatches could occur.”

“Short haul flights are the most likely to be affected as they’re more fuel intensive at the start and landing, and also cruise less,” he added. 

Currently, European jet fuel imports are operating at almost a third of their pre-war average, but consumption in the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy fell by just 0.2 per cent last year.

He said: “We’re coming across the end of the in-demand season so we should be well supplied. 

“We have more [fuel] from East Asia and supplies from the US and Nigeria, so we shouldn’t anticipate shortages but expect prices to stay relatively high.” 

Flight cancellations and reductions

So where and whom will be affected this winter?

Both easyJet and Ryanair – two of Europe’s low-cost airlines – have announced cuts to their winter schedule viewing it as cheaper to keep their aircrafts parked rather than run loss-making flights.

Ryanair intends to cut 2 million passengers during an “unprofitable winter” and are targeting mid-week flights in late November, early December and the middle of January –  when demand is traditionally weaker. 

The Irish airline said: “If high oil prices continue through to summer 2027, Ryanair believes short haul airfares in Europe will increase materially to reflect the higher prices.”

On the airline’s London Stansted-Palma route, Tuesday and Wednesday departures have been removed from the second week of November until the week before Christmas. 

Last week, Kenton Jarvis, CEO of easyJet, said a further 700,000 seats would be removed from the website. 

Alternatively, the airline – which offers more than 650 routes from 22 UK airports – appears to concentrate reductions on routes offering several daily departures, allowing passengers to use other services without major changes to their travel plans.

On its London Gatwick-Amsterdam route, easyJet offers up to six flights in each direction. 

A cancelled 3.15pm departure would allow affected customers to travel on the 1.40pm or 6.05pm service instead.

Passengers affected by cancellations have rights to refunds or alternative flights, although airlines generally owe no additional compensation when providing at least 14 days’ notice. 

Smaller airports at risk

Mike Malik, Chief Industry Officer at Cirium aviation, told The i Paper that in a fuel-shortage crisis, resources mostly reach larger hubs first as “that is where the volume and the commercial weight sit”. 

He said: “Smaller airports have fewer supply routes, less storage and less flexibility, so they feel it first. Through this entire episode, no major hub anywhere has run dry.

“The risk sits in the structure rather than any one place.

“I would watch out for European refineries going into planned maintenance through the autumn – nobody has refilled the storage that got the continent through the spring,” he added.

Leeds Bradford Airport shows that some compact regional airports are trying to mitigate these risks. 

REDS Group, a UK-based environmental services contractor and consultancy, announced three weeks ago that it had installed two new 200,000-litre aviation fuel storage tanks at the Yorkshire hub. 

It said: “The result is increased fuel capacity, improved operational resilience and upgraded infrastructure designed to reduce environmental risk.”

Original source End of the budget getaway to Spain and Portugal as the price of jet fuel soars

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