If there is one state in the US that Republicans had thought was entirely safe terrain for them in November’s midterm elections, it was the Sunshine State of Florida.
At the start of this year, Democrats gave no thought to the possibility of flipping the state and turning it blue. After all, their Republican opponents currently control 20 of Florida’s 28 seats in the House of Representatives, both seats in the US Senate, and the Governor’s Mansion. Democratic Party grandees had sensibly written it off.
But suddenly, such is the American public’s disquiet over Donald Trump’s stewardship of the nation and the economic crisis that his war on Iran has ignited that even Florida is in play.
The Reform MPs who face losing their seats according to new poll
Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are among four Reform UK MPs who would lose their seats if a general election were held tomorrow, fresh polling by YouGov shows.
Falling behind the Tories
Tory defector Danny Kruger and Sarah Pochin – who beat Labour in a 2025 by-election – would also be unseated, according to the leading UK pollster’s first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.
Although the party’s numbers of MPs would hugely increase, it would have fewer seats than the Tories overall, marking a significant fall when compared to last year’s polling.
How a Labour government could be formed
The poll predicts that Labour would be the biggest party in a hung parliament.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey recently ruled out forming a coalition with Reform or the Tories but stopped short of excluding a coalition with Labour.
However, to form a Parliamentary majority in this scenario, Burnham would also need to work with the SNP or Plaid Cymru.
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Reform expanding its operations
The polling comes as Reform is preparing a huge expansion of its operations around the country, targeting London, the South East, the South West and the East of England.
- Analysis of Reform job adverts by The i Paper suggests the party is pumping resources into areas where it wants to keep its high-profile Tory defectors.
There’s turmoil in the Liberal Democrats. And MPs are struggling for direction
Stagnant in the polls but still a potential kingmaker, the party’s at a crossroads – even its own members are asking what comes next.
Record number of assaults on Britain’s trains – what to know
Assaults on Britain’s railways have hit record levels, new figures from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) have revealed.
The numbers
The data published on Thursday showed there were 13,464 reported assaults on people who were not railway workers between April 2025 and March 2026, an increase of 36 per cent compared to the previous year.
- 11,289 assaults on rail workers on mainline networks were also recorded, an increase of 12 per cent. This included 6,390 incidents of verbal abuse, 2,487 physical assaults and 2,412 threats.
Working to make railways safer
No-one on the railway should be subjected to violence, threats or abuse. We’re working with industry and our trade union colleagues to address work-related violence and harassment, including through recent guidance which sets out what we expect from rail employers.
Richard Hines, ORR’s chief inspector railways
Walkers reveals three new crisp flavours
Three new “gold” flavours of Walkers are now available for crisp lovers. The new snacks mark the brand’s biggest revamp in 80 years.
What are the flavours and how much are they?
The new flavours are black truffle, sea salt and olive oil and Somerset mature cheddar and onion.
Each pack is branded as “Premium Potato Crisps”.
The crisps come in 140g bags and can currently be bought for £2 each.
Where you can buy them
The entire range launched on Ocado officially today, but from October 12, they will be widely available in major UK supermarkets for a cheaper price of £1.50.
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With fewer than 40 days left in the midterm campaign, last week Byron Donalds, the Republican Party’s candidate to succeed Ron DeSantis as Florida’s governor, suddenly removed virtually every reference to Trump from his campaign website. Donalds, a former congressman who is so close to Trump that in November 2023 he was considered one of the top candidates to serve as vice president in a second administration, is now running from his political mentor as fast as his legs can carry him.
Endorsed by Trump, Donalds had proudly emblazoned the President’s backing of him on all his campaign communications for months. Now, voters visiting Donalds’ website are hard-pressed to find the candidate making any mention of the President at all.
The found that at least eight references to the President were removed from the site, including one that said Donald’s first priority as governor would be to “Enact the Trump Agenda”. Instead, he is now vowing to take on the issue of “affordability”, a word that Trump claims that Democrats have concocted to describe economic travails that he insists do not exist.
The ad eviscerates Trump’s policy of mass deportations, observing that in July 50 per cent of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainees had no criminal convictions or pending charges, despite the President’s insistence that he is removing “the worst of the worst” from US soil. “Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” warns Salazar. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today,” she says, reflecting the growing hostility to Trump among Latino voters that she is encountering on Miami doorsteps.
Under normal circumstances, Salazar would be a shoo-in to return to office. She won her district by 20 points two years ago, has risen to the position of assistant Republican whip in the House, and earned Trump’s endorsement for re-election as early as February.
“SHE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN”, he gushed on Truth Social.
Now, she may feel doubly let down by him. In addition to the drag his policies are placing on her re-election efforts, over the weekend Trump amplified far-too-late efforts to ditch “backstabber” Salazar as the Republican Party’s candidate in her district, signifying his displeasure with her disloyalty.
In battleground states across the country, Republican candidates now find themselves with a choice: stand by Trump and lose or make an 11th-hour effort to salvage their campaigns by breaking with him.
In Michigan, the Republicans’ Senate candidate Mike Rogers has dropped his long-standing support for the Iran war, urging Trump to end it as soon as possible. Other candidates making similar demands include Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee for governor of Wisconsin (“we should be exiting Iran… it’s time to move on”), Senator Jon Husted seeking re-election in Ohio (“the war needs to come to an end as soon as possible”), and Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson seeking a return to the House of Representatives (“Iowans… shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout for the war”).
Trump is immovable, announcing this weekend that he has rejected a seven-day ceasefire proposal offered by Iran, calling it “unacceptable”. Far from focusing on wrapping up the war, he once again threatened to expand the conflict as soon as the midterms are over, a move that is likely to further doom Republican prospects in key swing states.
That Florida could now be a swing state should be setting off alarm bells in the White House. Former Florida Republican congressman Carlos Curbelo told Politico on Friday that the party’s candidates were “bracing for the worst”.
The loss of Trump’s home state – and seat of his unofficial court at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach – would be an extraordinary and humiliating loss for the President.
And Democrats know that if Trump’s party is in trouble there, it is facing a possible wipeout when the votes are counted all over the country in just over five weeks’ time.