American voters have the chance to make or break Donald Trump’s presidency on Tuesday, with midterm elections taking place across the United States.
They will decide the makeup of the US Congress, with hundreds of seats being contested across the House of Representatives and the Senate. This will determine how easily Trump can pass his political agenda and how much scrutiny his administration faces.
Elections will be also be held for state assemblies and governors, city mayors, councillors, officials and even judges.
But the vote is often viewed as a de facto referendum on the sitting President – and it isn’t looking good for Trump.
How getting your RDA (recommended dose of art) can transform wellbeing
Visiting a museum or art gallery every month for a “recommended dose of art (RDA)” can transform wellbeing, according to a report.
At least 60 minutes per month inside a gallery or museum could help cut depression, lower stress and improve health, according to the study from the Art Fund charity.
What do the figures tell us?
50%
Evidence in the report shows how a 2019 study on 2,148 adults found a 32 per cent lower risk of depression from going to museums, theatre and cinema every few months.
This rose to a 48 per cent lower risk for people who attended once a month or more, according to the data, taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.
- Daisy Fancourt, professor of psychobiology at University College London (UCL), who wrote the foreword to the report said adopting a monthly habit can make a difference.
The expert view
Regular engagement and meaningful encounters with art are now recognised as an important contributor to our health and wellbeing, and the evidence suggests they should be viewed as health-promoting behaviours, alongside having a balanced diet, regular exercise and spending time outdoors.
Daisy Fancourt
What other studies have also found
Another study published this year in the journal, , found “evidence that authentic art viewing engages biological processes linked to stress reduction and immune modulation”.
A further study found community cultural engagement was associated with a lower risk of developing dementia.
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Why Ryanair is warning customers to book summer flights now
The boss of Ryanair has warned travellers to book their summer flights sooner rather than later, with plane ticket prices set to “rise dramatically” next year.
The budget airline said it expects short-haul airfares – like those for trips from the UK to Europe – to increase tickets by 20 per cent.
Why are ticket prices soaring?
Fuel prices have increased dramatically due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Ryanair said it expects jet fuel prices to remain “elevated well into 2027”.
Short-haul airfares must therefore rise to reflect “much higher” cost of aviation fuel prices. There will also be fewer seats available as airlines reduce capacity to try to control costs, according to Ryanair.
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3 min read
But raising fares won’t fully cover spiralling fuel costs. The airline, therefore, is mulling pay freezes, reducing crew numbers and increasing its use of AI to cut costs.
“Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict we expect jet fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027,” said O’Leary.
A closer look at the figures
€2.15bn
The company revealed that profit after tax fell by 15 per cent to €2.15bn (£1.79bn) for the half-year to September, compared with a year earlier.
Revenues increased by 3 per cent to €10.08bn driven by 6 per cent increase in passenger numbers. But the firm saw operating costs lift by 10 per cent.
- Earlier this year, Ryanair said it would cut its traffic target for the year from 216 million passengers to 214 million in an effort to offset increases in unhedged fuel costs.
What you need to know about new Buy Now Pay Later rules
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) lenders – like Klarna and Clearpay – have been officially regulated since July, meaning their rules of use have quietly changed.
Here is what that means for you.
What you need to know
Stricter checks
The new regulation mean users have stricter background checks on their ability to repay loans.
Purchases blocked
If you fail, then your purchase via BNPL will be blocked.
Borrowing figure
There are different affordability checks for different purchases, partially based on how much is borrowed.
Shoppers given stronger rights
Why were the regulations needed?
- BNPL regulations are designed to help prevent people from falling into unaffordable debt.
- Lenders must now direct shoppers who fall into financial difficulty towards debt advice rather than immediately referring them to debt collectors.
- Treasury minister Rachel Blake said the rules deliver promised consumer protections.
Protecting consumers
It is not fair that people using these products have had fewer rights than if they had paid by credit card. These new rules protect the consumer — with proper checks before credit is offered, real rights when things go wrong, and support rather than pressure if someone falls into financial difficulty.
Rachel Blake, economic secretary to the Treasury
How to avoid being blocked
Sara Williams, a former volunteer debt adviser at Citizens Advice who posts tips as Debt Camel on social media, told the BBC just how consumers can avoid being blocked by BNPL lenders.
- Slow down your purchases: If your budget is tight, ensure that what you are buying is essential or see if you can postpone the spending.
- Be more careful about what you buy: Avoid needing a high credit limit to buy lots of clothes in different sizes.
- Cancel subscriptions: Escape the trap of having to use BNPL to make up for the cost of previous payments.
- Talk to debt charities: If you are using BNPL for essentials, speak to charities for help and access to food bank vouchers.
The midterm elections take place every two years, in the middle of a president’s four-year term of office. This year, all 435 members of the House will be elected for two-year terms. In the Senate, 35 of 100 seats are up for election, for six-year terms.
In the House, Republicans currently hold 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214. There is one independent member and two vacancies. In the Senate, the Republicans have 53 seats compared with the Democrats’ 45 – although two independents caucus with the Democrats.
Current polling suggests the are likely to lose the House of Representatives, and have a good chance of winning the Senate, with some suggestions these could be the worst midterm elections for any president, ever.
Data-modelling site Race to the White House gives the a 94 per cent chance of taking the House and a 76 per cent chance of winning the Senate. An NBC News survey conducted in the final days of October found Democrats generally ahead by 52 per cent to 45 per cent across the country.
Another poll found Democrats beating Republicans in nearly all of the seven battleground states that will determine who controls the Senate.
This is largely down to the soaring cost of living, which has been exacerbated by Trump’s , and consistently polls as the top issue for voters.
Dr Jonny Hall, a US foreign policy lecturer at the London School of Economics, said the midterms were “traditionally seen as a kind of referendum for the first half of a presidential administration”, especially if one party has controlled the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives – as has been the case for the last two years.
“The general pattern is very clear; incumbent governments tend to lose congressional seats in these elections,” Hall said. “As such, it is normally harder for presidential administrations to govern in the last two years of their term; congressional oversight may grow, and Congress, vitally, has the power of the purse which it can use to extract concessions.”
What could the election mean for Trump?
The midterms “are likely to signal the end of the second Trump presidency”, according to Professor Bill Durodie of the University of Bath.
“It would mean that, for the remainder of his presidency, he would effectively be a lame-duck president, unable to pass his policies into action.”
Greater Democratic power in Congress could make it “very painful for the President to push through their agenda”, and could trigger more investigations into potential corruption and abuse of power in the Trump administration, according to Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at the University of Essex.
With greater power in the House, the Democrats might also bring forward impeachment hearings focused on both the President and his cabinet officials. If the party takes the Senate, it could block any further nominations to the Supreme Court, America’s highest judicial authority, and other Trump appointees.
David Andersen, associate professor of US politics at Durham University, said Trump had “never relied on Congress to enact his agenda, and instead has always preferred to rely upon executive actions” – but a united Congress might be able to block some of his policies.
“We could see his tariffs rolled back, and the cuts to government agencies blocked,” Andersen suggested. “Democrats may also almost certainly attempt to stop Trump from his various development projects on federal land, such as the White House Ballroom and the Triumphal Arch.”
A strong midterms showing will also help set up the Democrats for the next presidential election – especially with a large majority. “Within the House, any majority is sufficient to control the chamber, but if the Democrats’ majority stretches to 20 or 30 seats, this provides them the comfort of being able to allow members in competitive seats to break from party-line voting if it will help their future electoral chances,” Andersen said.
However, the White House already appears to be preparing a Plan B. Trump has reportedly already made plans on how to govern with a minority government by focusing on policy areas that can be pursued without legislative approval, and he could well use the presidential veto for legislation of which he does not approve.
Some analysts fear that a painful midterm result could make Trump more impulsive on the international stage, where the presidency has greater power. “The only area that Trump will be left with unfettered control is foreign policy, and that could be where he tries to establish a legacy,” Andersen said.
A senior Ukrainian source told The i Paper that a bad election result “could make Trump more impatient” and that “a Ukraine deal is among very few wins he can deliver on his own”.
With the US President having already proven willing to entertain the Kremlin’s maximalist peace demands, and considering his continued lity to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, the source feared that Trump could force Kyiv into a peace deal in which it loses land or security.
Trump has also threatened to resume attacks on Iran, saying this week that he would use a “hammer” on Tehran. Some reports have suggested this could go as far as a nuclear strike, with right-wing US media personality Tucker Carlson claiming that Israel was putting pressure on the White House to consider using nuclear weapons.
Trump denied this month that he would use nuclear weapons against Iran, but said he was considering using a devastating conventional weapon, the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the MOAB, or “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear sites.
Races to watch
Some of the most revealing political battles have been taking place in the contest for the Senate, Andersen said, with Republicans “in tight races in places that they should not be” throughout the Midwest, including in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, where Republicans would normally enjoy double-digit leads.
“If the polls are correct, Republicans could be in for a shocking and historic loss,” Andersen said. “Even if the polls are wrong and Republicans do better than expected, they are still likely to have a very bad night. The best hopes for the GOP [Republican Party] right now seem to be that they might be able to win some close races and maintain a 50-50 split in the Senate, with Vice President [JD] Vance serving as the tiebreaker.”
Michigan and Texas are two key states to watch, according to Lindstaedt. “A win for the Democrats in Michigan will show the Democrats that a progressive [Abdul El-Sayed] can win, and a win in Texas would show the breadth of the Democratic brand,” she said, but added: “Everything would need to go the Democrats’ way, because these races are all really tight.”
But a resounding Democratic victory might not spell the end of the process. After Trump falsely claimed the 2020 presidential election had been rigged – a move that triggered his supporters to storm, smash and loot the US Capitol building in January 2021 – there are concerns that he may not accept a negative result.
He could decide to declare a national emergency, seizing voting machines and electronic voting records from unspecified polling locations, claiming the move was justified because of alleged fraud, Lindstaedt said – though these moves would most likely be found unlawful in court.
Trump and his Justice Department could also file lawsuits to try to prevent Republican losses, as he has done in Alaska – although this has now been tossed out by a judge – or encourage GOP candidates or other allies to file their own challenges.
“This could lead to a lot of delays in certification and in getting the results, which will cause tension if the Blue Wave [a huge Democrat victory] is not as big as predicted,” Lindstaedt said.
While Trump does not appear to be moving forward with some of his more extreme threats, such as sending troops to “secure the polls”, it is possible that he will urge his supporters not to accept an electoral loss, Andersen added.
“This could lead to more violence, like what we saw on 6 January 2021,” Andersen said.
“Given his weak approval ratings, and following on the heels of a potential Democratic landslide, this could make Trump the least popular president in history, and effectively prematurely end his ability to govern at all.”