Not so long ago Nigel Farage was riding high in the opinion polls and blithely picking out new curtains and cushions for No 10. But despite this week’s words of defiance, and the claim that Andy Burnham has just given him the biggest boost to his electoral career, you have to wonder whether the bubble of boast and bombast has burst for Farage.
A series of jaw-dropping financial allegations have besieged Farage – throughout which he has denied any wrongdoing – and he’s been attacked on all sides, with some of the most vicious slings and arrows coming from other right-wingers.
Added to Farage’s woes is that there has, of course, been a change of prime minister. Burnham is still being given the benefit of the doubt, mainly because, against the usual expectations we have of our modern-day politicians, he acts and sounds like a relatable human being. His speech to the Labour Party conference was stripped of the usual cliches and dog whistles and he sounded both genuine and sincere.
This used to be the Farage USP. His schtick was being the straight-talking man of the people who cut through the political waffle with a pint in his paw, a fag in the corner of his mouth and a quip on his lips. Burnham does it far better, without the cigarettes.
And our newish Prime Minister has also dared to bring up the formerly taboo subject of the UK rejoining Europe. While only in the sense that Burnham is thinking about taking the nation’s pulse on the issue, rather than implementing any tangible road map for change, Burnham even broaching the subject shows how much Farage’s grip on the country has loosened.
After David Cameron was browbeaten into an EU referendum because he feared the rise of Ukip, successive prime ministers have treated Brexit like kryptonite, scared to take on the might of Farage for fear of losing to him. Burnham’s move would appear to show a willingness to go toe-to-toe and take him on. Farage has claimed that by even mentioning rejoining Europe, even in the vaguest of terms, Burnham has handed him a massive boost and has re-energised Reform UK – claiming yesterday that Burnham has “put me back into the debate”.
I’m not so sure about that. Reform might still be high in the polls, but Farage’s reputation is becoming increasingly tarnished. We are going to be seeing a lot more of him as he effectively launches his campaign for the next election, something which he believes could be as soon as the spring. But surely he must know that every time he makes a speech he will be questioned about alleged dodgy donations.
He has denied there is anything untoward about any money given to his party. He is very good at deflection and will brazen it out, but the stench of those allegations will not simply go away. Making his constituents go through another by-election was an own goal that will come back to haunt him, and he will always have to firefight some of the more extreme fruit loops who huddle under the Reform banner and will inevitably say something blatantly racist, deeply offensive or profoundly stupid.
He must also be looking over his shoulder at the Tory party. Not all that long ago it seemed as though it had been eviscerated by Reform, with a clutch of ship-jumping Tory MPs leaping on board HMS Farage and discontented Conservative voters considering joining Reform out of desperation and disappointment.
Despite all the noise, Tory Party leader Kemi Badenoch has stood firm and weathered the Reform storm, and slowly but surely looks like she is regaining the trust of disillusioned backbenchers and those wavering heartland Tory voters.
Farage has always been good at making promises about issues like immigration to people who genuinely feel disenfranchised. He gives his own brand of hope to those who feel neglected and left behind. Promising the earth without any real power is a very easy way to grandstand, but when Reform did win big in the local elections, it has already started to unravel.
They gained control of Durham council last year, for instance – albeit with a dismal turnout – but this victory has turned into a hot mess with Reform councillors resigning amid infighting and the party in danger of losing its majority. It shows that when asked to roll up their sleeves and sort out local issues like bin collections and potholes, they are way out of their depth.
So despite his new campaign for power, Farage is looking increasingly like yesterday’s man, shouting into a gale, while many of us shrug our shoulders and get on with our lives. It looks increasingly like he has peaked too soon. Seeing his party dip in actual bona fide opinion polls, and watching the prospect of real power slipping through his fingers, must be his worst nightmare.
No matter how much he bleats about conspiracies and stitch-ups, he’s no longer the force he once was.
This week…
I continue to be deeply concerned about our greatest living explorer, Sir Ranulph Fiennes. I interviewed him for our podcast with my daughter Rosie in 2022. This was a year before he was apparently shuffled into a series of care homes by his second wife, with all of his friends – including King Charles – effectively banned from any contact.
We both noticed he had a slight tremor due to Parkinson’s disease but Sir Ran was as sharp as a tack and kept us entertained with stories from his eventful life for well over two hours.
Maybe he has told his second wife, who has power of attorney, that, due to becoming sicker and frailer, he doesn’t want to see anyone anymore. But that seems very out of character, and why doesn’t she simply issue a statement to that effect and put everyone’s mind at rest?