As Reform UK activists bopped to Boney M’s “Rasputin” at the party’s conference in Birmingham, the lyrics offered an oddly apt soundtrack to the turmoil engulfing the party.

The song tells the story of a man who got dangerously close to power, acquired extraordinary influence over a ruler and ultimately overstepped the mark.

Only hours earlier, Nigel Farage had sacked two senior aides after a undercover investigation appeared to show them discussing the possibility of accepting foreign donations – leading to claims the party had breached electoral law.

The men at the centre of the sting were not bit-part players. Dan Jukes, Farage’s senior political adviser, and James Orr, Reform’s head of policy, were both members of the leader’s inner circle, with Farage’s ear and a hand in running his increasingly ambitious political operation.

Yet, despite the latest scandal to hit the party, Farage appeared in remarkably good spirits when he joined members of his inner circle for breakfast on Friday morning. The previous night’s revelations had produced another round of lurid headlines. But around the breakfast table there was levity and laughter.

The source of their amusement was the rather curious choice of spokesperson for the morning round. Why, they wondered, would you send Lee Anderson – described as a “hung over grumpy miner” – out to face the music at one of the party’s moments of greatest peril?

The joke belied the seriousness of the situation.

Broadcast on Thursday night, the investigation filmed Jukes and Orr allegedly discussing arrangements for a US source to fund £32,500 of polling commissioned by Reform.

It also recorded discussions about a proposed £500,000 donation from a supposed American businessman, via his UK-based son. The money was never paid, and Reform has dismissed the entire operation as a “hoax” carried out by “foreign-funded, climate change activists posing as would-be party donors”, pointing to links between , the group behind the investigation, and climate campaigners.

One source close to Farage described the affair as a “storm in a teacup”. But even if Farage believed the sting was little more than a political nuisance, he knew that, under the relentless scrutiny now facing Reform, the boil needed lancing and so he sacked two of his most senior aides.

Damaging revelations about Reform’s finances

Farage is renowned for his loyalty to friends and has stuck by Jukes through thick and thin. But among those close to the Reform leader there was a sense that his long-serving aide had finally outlived his usefulness.

One party insider accused Jukes of making “too many enemies” and said he had become too fond of the power that came with his proximity to Farage. “The irony about Jukes is that he is married to the daughter of an American billionaire, so he should have been able to spot a fake one from 100 yards,” the source joked.

Neither man, according to those close to Farage, is likely to be welcomed back into the fold any time soon.

Surprisingly, however, George Cottrell, remains in favour.

Known as “Posh George”, the former Farage aide and friend has no formal role in Reform. Yet he continues to occupy a lofty place in the leader’s orbit, retaining his access and affection despite a history that might have made any another political operator radioactive.

His mother, Fiona Cottrell, is at the centre of a police investigation into £500,000 of donations made to Reform in 2024. She made two £250,000 donations directly to the party and later transferred £1 million to Britain Means Business, a fundraising vehicle associated with Reform, from which £500,000 was subsequently transferred to Reform.

Cottrell was reported to have had lunch with Farage in Mayfair earlier this summer. Sources close to Farage jokingly say Cottrell decided to give this year’s Reform conference a miss after a summer in which the money swirling around the party has come under intense scrutiny.

Farage is under investigation by Parliamentary Standards Commissioner Daniel Greenberg over whether he should have declared a £5m gift from cryptocurrency businessman Christopher Harborne.

The probe was paused after Farage resigned as an MP in July and triggered a by-election in his Clacton seat. His decision to call the contest was seen as an attempt to secure a fresh mandate from voters and draw a line under the controversy surrounding the donation.

‘Nobody wants a second by-election’

He won convincingly, taking 63.3 per cent of the vote, and returned to Parliament. But the investigation remains unresolved.

Last month, reported that Reform insiders believed Farage had been poorly advised over the decision to call the by-election. One senior source claimed that “young advisers” around Farage had failed to establish whether the Standards Commissioner’s investigation would continue after the contest and had incorrectly assumed it would not.

Those close to Farage strongly denied the claim, telling The i Paper: “How stupid do you think we are?”

According to Farage’s allies, the gamble has nevertheless paid off. They believe there is little appetite for putting Clacton through another by-election, even if he is ultimately found to have breached parliamentary rules over the donation.

The stakes are high. The Standards Committee could recommend sanctions ranging from an apology or repayment to suspension from Parliament – and, in the most serious cases, expulsion. A suspension of 10 sitting days or more could trigger a recall petition in Clacton, potentially forcing another by-election.

One Farage ally believes the Standards Committee will stop short of the toughest sanction. “There won’t be a second by-election,” the source confidently predicted. “No one wants that, especially after Nigel won so convincingly.

“The by-election achieved exactly what he wanted. It gave him an even stronger mandate, as well as six weeks off from having to talk about the donation day after day. It also allowed him to get back to doing what he does best, which is getting out and about and having the kind of conversations that really matter to his supporters.”

Farage and his allies continue to insist that he has done nothing wrong and did not need to declare the donation. They argue that, when he accepted the money in April 2024, he had no intention of returning to politics or becoming an MP.

They also say the party commissioned a legal opinion which concluded that he did not need to declare the gift, initially described by Farage as money intended to pay for his security and later characterised as a reward for his campaigning for Brexit.

Farage has yet to be interviewed by Greenberg, according to allies, amid claims that the investigation could drag on for months as the list of allegations surrounding him and his party continues to grow.
According to those close to Farage, only “about three people” knew the full details of the donation.

Tensions exposed inside Reform

The fact that sensitive financial information known to such a small circle has subsequently appeared in the press has fuelled alarm inside Reform. Senior figures are increasingly convinced that confidential information is being accessed or leaked from somewhere within their operation.

Farage and Richard Tice are now suing the National Crime Agency (NCA), alleging that confidential information about their financial transactions was leaked to the media.

The information included details contained in suspicious activity reports, or SARs, which banks are required to submit to the NCA when they suspect transactions may involve money laundering or other criminal property. The NCA has not accepted responsibility for the alleged leak and is investigating the circumstances.

But the emergence of the information has left Reform trying to work out how it got into the public domain.

Some in Reform believe the party has been hacked and that the NCA is a “red herring,” others suspect an insider and that Farage should be looking closer to home.

“The question has got to be who stands to benefit most if Nigel blows up?” asked one senior party insider.

Tice, Zia Yusuf and Robert Jenrick are all seen as potential successors to Farage, and the jockeying to succeed him is already exposing tensions within Reform.

The suspension of Tim Montgomerie after he accused Yusuf of behaving “like a child” laid bare some of those tensions, particularly between Reform’s original populist camp and the former Conservatives who have since joined the party.

‘Who benefits most if Nigel blows up?’

Those close to Farage are watching the infighting closely.

“Nigel is going nowhere,” said one ally. “And even if he did decide to give it all up, Yusuf is deluding himself if he thinks he will become leader.”

Another source was equally dismissive of Tice. “He is just so boring. He hasn’t got any charisma.”

Yusuf has faced criticism for calling former defence secretary Ben Wallace a “traitor” over his handling of the evacuation of Afghans from Kabul – a remark that even Farage said had gone “over the top”. But his allies insist his combative style is precisely what Reform supporters want.

“Zia is Zia,” said one senior Reform source. They said members wanted a Home Secretary with “mettle” – someone who “does what they say they’re going to do and isn’t cowed”.

“This is what Reformers are like. This is how we are. This is what we believe in. If you don’t like it, don’t vote for us.”

For now, Farage, who was given a hero’s welcome by activists at this year’s annual conference, remains firmly in control.

But the man long regarded as politically untouchable is looking more vulnerable as the vultures begin to circle.

Rasputin was the great survivor of the Russian court, famed for seeming impossible to kill even as his enemies plotted against him.

Similarly, Farage has a reputation for being a great survivor with a Teflon touch. The question now is whether his luck is finally beginning to run out.