A leading lawyer has set out what could happen next for Nigel Farage and his party after police launched a criminal investigation into allegations that Reform breached foreign funding donation rules.

The Metropolitan Police is probing allegations from an undercover sting by the Verbatim investigative group broadcast by Channel 4 News.

Footage appeared to show senior Reform figures arranging for a US company to fund three influential polls, costing £32,500, which were published in the media.

One poll made the front page of under the headline: “Reform vote in unions at same level as Labour.”

Foreign political donations in the UK are banned. It is also illegal to conceal a donation that has come from a source that isn’t allowed.

The Met Police investigation – led by its special inquiry team – is expected to focus on two Reform aides caught in the sting. But The i Paper understands that Farage is also likely to be interviewed as part of the investigation.

But what are the potential legal implications for cases such as this? And what might the ballot box fallout be for Farage and Reform?

What the law says …

A plot for a foreign donor to fund polling commissioned by a political party could amount to a criminal offence, a leading KC has said.

Gavin Millar, an election law specialist KC at Matrix Law, said donations that are accepted – and are found to not be permissible – should be paid back within 30 days.

If charges over the polling payments in such a case were brought, the trial could be held in a magistrates court, with a maximum prison sentence of six months, or crown court, where the maximum jail term would be a year, he added.

Both courts could also impose an unlimited fine.

There would also be the possibility that offences of evading the law on donations may be being investigated under Section 61 of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

“[This] is an offence that you commit where you enter into an arrangement that facilitates or is likely to facilitate an impermissible donation,” Millar added.

Not telling a political party treasurer about an impermissible donation with intent to deceive them could also lead to a charge, he said.

Millar said there could also be charges of conspiracy brought in such a case – which can carry a maximum sentence of up to a year in prison.

He said a key line of inquiry will be what was discussed between Reform figures and the party treasurer in relation to the donations.

Farage and Reform deny wrongdoing.

What the voters say …

Despite the allegations, top pollster Sir John Curtice said the impact on Reform has so far been “zero”.

The party had taken a hit in the polls in July amid allegations over a £500,000 donation made to Reform by the mother of convicted fraudster George Cottrell, a close associate of party leader Farage.

The Met’s special inquiry team is also investigating this payment – which led to Farage calling a by-election in his Clacton-on-Sea seat.

YouGov data on perceptions of Reform and Farage at the time showed a 2.5 per cent drop in the polls.

The proportion of people who regarded the party as untrustworthy was also higher than previously, Curtice added.

But a repeat poll in the wake of the Channel 4 broadcast found “opinion hadn’t shifted”, the professor of politics at Strathclyde University added.

“On the evidence so far of the impact of the sting itself… it has not had any immediate impact.”

He suggested this was because the latest investigation had “not told voters anything they thought they didn’t already know”.

However he added: “We now wait to see what the polling says that is after the announcement about the Met Police.”

If there were charges in the case – the electoral impact may depend on who was charged, Curtice said.