Five options for reversing Brexit and the political risk

Andy Burnham has set the Brexit hares racing again with a series of statements on closer ties with the EU.

On Monday, he raised eyebrows by saying he’d like to see the UK rejoin in his lifetime – caveating that he would not run ahead of the voters on the issue and that it wouldn’t be in this Parliament.

This followed an interview in the in which he opened the door to a future deal with Europe reintroducing freedom of movement, saying that he wanted to have an “honest discussion about those things”.

Why you’re set to pay thousands more in income tax

Workers could lose thousands of pounds more from their incomes over the next few years – unless Chancellor John Healey acts to reverse his predecessor’s “stealth tax” rule.

What is the ‘stealth tax’?

FILE PHOTO: British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Finance Minister John Healey react during the Labour Party's annual conference in Liverpool, Britain, September 28, 2026. REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo

The personal allowance – the amount people can earn before paying income tax – has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021, and the freeze was extended at last year’s Budget.

This creates a so-called “stealth tax” as salaries grow to keep up with inflation, causing workers to pay more in income tax and national insurance over time.

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How your tax bill will be affected

The biggest rises in tax are seen for those on salaries of around…

This is because every extra pound these people earn is effectively taxed at 60 per cent until they earn £125,140.

When you earn an extra £2 in this bracket, you pay…

40%

… higher rate income tax on it (costing you 80p), and you lose £1 of your tax-free allowance.

Total tax and lost allowance equal £1.20 out of every £2 earned.

Will Burnham change things?

Experts say it is unlikely Burnham will take action to increase the tax thresholds at the Budget, largely because of the cost.

However, reports this weekend have suggested there could be changes made for some pensioners.

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Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado greets supporters upon her arrival in Caracas on October 25, 2026. Machado returned to her home country on October 25, 2026, after almost a year in exile, greeting ecstatic supporters at a church in the city of Barquisimeto. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP via Getty Images)

María Machado returns after months in exile – what we know


The Venezuelan opposition leader has finally come home to crowds of ecstatic supporters after more than 10 months away.

A triumphant return

On Sunday, she was spotted attending mass in the Lara state after being repeatedly barred from re-entering her home country.

She later travelled to Caracas where she was mobbed by jubilant crowds.

Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado greets supporters after her arrival in Caracas on October 25, 2026. Machado returned to her home country on October 25, 2026, after almost a year in exile, greeting ecstatic supporters at a church in the city of Barquisimeto. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP via Getty Images)
CARACAS, VENEZUELA - OCTOBER 25: Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is welcomed by supporters upon her arrival in Caracas, Venezuela, on October 25, 2026. Machado returned to Venezuela on Sunday after spending months in exile in Panama. (Photo by Diko Betancourt/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Machado wrote on X: “Night of reunion in our Caracas. For the reunion of each family, for the Freedom of each political prisoner, for the Freedom of Venezuela.”

Where does this leave Venezuela?

  • In December 2025, Machado left Venezuela in secret to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in Norway.
  • In January, US forces abducted former president Nicolás Maduro, her authoritarian political opponent.
  • Maduro is now in jail in New York and due to be tried in June 2027. He denies all charges.
  • He was replaced by deputy Delcy Rodríguez, the interim President.

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The American outlook

Machado’s return to Venezuela needed US approval.

The opposition figure gave Trump her peace prize in January after he made it clear he felt he had been snubbed.

Trump said: “I think she’s a very nice woman. She gave me her Nobel Prize, so how can I say anything else? And I hope she’s safe.”

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado meets U.S. senators after her meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon

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US singer Chris Brown arrives at Southwark Crown Court where he is due to be sentenced after pleading guilty to affray over an incident in which prosecutors said he attacked a music producer with a bottle in a London nightclub in 2023, in London, Britain, October 26, 2026. REUTERS/Chris J Ratcliffe

Chris Brown avoids jail over London nightclub attack


The singer was handed a suspended sentence after he admitted hitting a man with a tequila bottle in a central London club.

CCTV footage was shown where Chris Brown struck Abraham Diaw, connecting twice with his head, and then hitting his shoulder.

What you need to know

The 37-year-old admitted to affray earlier this year after attacking his former friend in Mayfair in February 2023. The incident lasted around 20 seconds and started at around 3am, the court heard.

On Monday at Southwark Crown Court, Brown was sentenced to eight months’ imprisonment, suspended for 12 months.

Court artist sketch by Elizabeth Cook of Chris Brown appearing in the dock alongside Omololu Akinlolu (right) at Southwark Crown Court, London, for sentencing after they pleaded guilty to affray following a bottle attack on Abraham Diaw in February 2023. Picture date: Monday October 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Elizabeth Cook/Press Association

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A ‘plainly dangerous’ attack

Brown’s vocal coach, Omololu Akinlolu, 40, who joined the attack, was sentenced to four months’ imprisonment, suspended for 12 months, and both men were ordered to pay £1,500 costs.

Omololu Akinlolu arriving at Southwark Crown Court, south London, where he along with R&B singer Chris Brown are due to be sentenced sentencing after they pleaded guilty to affray following a bottle attack on Abraham Diaw in February 2023. Picture date: Monday October 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: James Manning/Press Association
R&B singer Chris Brown arrives at Southwark Crown court for being sentenced over a nightclub attack in London, Monday, Oct. 26, 2026.(AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)

Judge Tony Baumgartner called the attack “plainly dangerous” and warned that “commercial success does not attract preferential treatment” in court.

PORT HURON, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 25: Singer Nicki Minaj greets President Donald Trump during a campaign rally at McMorran Place Sports & Entertainment Center on October 25, 2026 in Port Huron, Michigan. President Trump traveled to Michigan to rally for local Republican candidates ahead of next week's midterm elections. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX ***

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Rapper Nicki Minaj joins Trump onstage at Michigan rally

The musician joined the Republican campaign ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November.

What did she say?

Minaj, who has shown support for Donald Trump in the past, called herself his “number one fan”.

On Sunday, she flew into Port Huron on Air Force One, before she addressed the rally. She said: “We really need all these great people to be elected, because this is a major turning point for our country.”

HARRISON TOWNSHIP, MI - OCTOBER 25: Singer Nicki Minaj arrives with U.S. President Donald Trump on Air Force One at Selfridge Air National Guard Base on October 25, 2026 in Harrison Township, Michigan. President Trump is traveling to Michigan to rally for local Republican candidates ahead of next week's midterm elections. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Nicki Minaj covers her face as President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at McMorran Place Sports and Entertainment Center, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, in Port Huron, Mich. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Rallying support for the GOP

Trump called the rapper “beautiful” and “smart” before adding: “By the way, I looked at a beautiful ass before. Nicki Minaj. That’s hard to miss.”

He also hit out at Democratic senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, alleging he would “invite jihadists” to the US.

People listen to President Donald Trump speak during a campaign rally at McMorran Place Sports and Entertainment Center, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, in Port Huron, Mich. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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Locked in a tight race

El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are locked in an extremely tight race just days ahead of the midterm elections.

Former president Barack Obama lent his weight to the Democrat campaign at a rally on Saturday.

Former US President Barack Obama speaks during a midterm campaign rally as he campaigns alongside Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit, Michigan on October 24, 2026. (Photo by Bill Pugliano / AFP via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MICHIGAN, US - OCTOBER 24: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic candidate for Michigan's US Senate seat, speaks to a reporter during a Get Out the Vote rally in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., on October 24, 2026. (Photo by Katie McTiernan/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Campaigning in Ohio and Michigan, Obama told crowds: “This election is our last best chance to at least rein in some of the foolishness of this administration.”

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers' Party (PT) candidate for re-election, gestures as he addresses supporters after his victory in the presidential runoff election, at Paulista Avenue, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 26, 2026. REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Brazil’s President Lula wins fourth term – what we know


The left-wing incumbent has prevailed after a bitter election campaign, but his right-wing opponent Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded.

Lula clings on to presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won 51.79 per cent of votes in the run-off agianst Bolsonaro, who gained 48.21 per cent.

Lula celebrated a “historic victory”, his fourth after serving as president from 2003 to 2010, then again from January 2023.

SAO PAULO, BRAZIL - OCTOBER 25: Supporters of Presidential candidate and incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil celebrate with a hand gestures of an 'L' in honor of him after the results of the general election day on October 25, 2026 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. According to official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, Lula Da Silva has 51.79% of the votes, while Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 48.21% with 99% of the votes scrutinized. Brazilians voted for the president who will run the country for the next 4 years. (Photo by Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images)

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Bitter road to victory

  • Bolsonaro had beaten Lula in the first round vote on 4 October.
  • Observers thought it might not be possible for the incumbent to turn his fortunes around in less than a month.
SAO PAULO, BRAZIL - OCTOBER 25: Supporters of Luiz In??cio Lula da Silva celebrate aboard a subway train heading toward Avenida Paulista after Lula defeated Fl??vio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, during general election day on October 25, 2026 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. According to official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, Lula Da Silva has 51.79% of the votes, while Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 48.21% with 99% of the votes scrutinized. Brazilians voted for the president who will run the country for the next 4 years. (Photo by Luca Meola/Getty Images)

But Lula’s camp successfully utilised popular demonstrations and a significant social media drive.

Bolsonaro refuses to accept defeat

BRASILIA, BRAZIL - OCTOBER 25: Presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro speaks after the results of the general election day on October 25, 2026 in Brasilia, Brazil. According to official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva has 51.79% of the votes, while Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 48.21% with 99% of the votes scrutinized. Brazilians voted for the president who will run the country for the next 4 years. (Photo by Ton Molina/Getty Images)
  • The son of the former president criticised the extension of polling by two hours.
  • He told supporters he would try and get the election annulled.

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Who will be hit badly by the Budget?

John Healey will deliver his first Budget as Chancellor on Wednesday, but he may have little room to manoeuvre due to surging Government debt costs.

Any new spending will probably have to be paid for with trade-offs elsewhere.

Who will be worse off?

  • Business sources suspect Healey is set to pause Labour’s pledge to bring rates for young workers on minimum wage into line with over-21s.

    Healey signalled concern about the impact on jobs.

  •  reports that Healey is considering reversing former chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s cut to the surcharge.

Worse off: people who owe tax

It can currently only do so where a debt exceeds £1,000, and must leave at least £5,000 in the account – but under the reported plans the threshold would fall to as little as a few pounds.

NHS pensions are DB pensions meaning they pay out a guaranteed income for life

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Who will be better off?

  • For the first time, the full new state pension is set to rise above the personal allowance.
  • This means will be better off as they will not pay income tax.
  • Households struggling with energy bills are also anticipated to have some relief.
  • Healey is expected to expand the Warm Home Discount, which takes £150 off bills for households on means-tested benefits.

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Who else?

Burnham and Healey are committed to replacing the Lifetime ISA with a new ISA, The i Paper has been told, which would pay a government bonus when savers buy their first home.

The decision to leave capital gains tax untouched will be beneficial for , too.

File photo dated 08/06/16 of two women studying the house price signs in an estate agents window. Getting on the property ladder in your 20s may seem unattainable for many aspiring homeowners but in some parts of the UK the average first-time buyer age is as young as 27, analysis by a major mortgage lender has found. Nestled in picturesque countryside in the north west of England, the Ribble Valley in Lancashire has an average first-time buyer age of 27 - five years younger than the average age across the UK of 32, according to Lloyds. Issue date: Monday May 18, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Yui Mok/PA Wire

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And at Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool last month, the Prime Minister said that Brexit had done “more harm than good” and that later this year he wanted to set out “what I believe the different options are for Britain’s long-term relationship with our European partners”.

While there is still considerable uncertainty about what type of relationship Burnham will eventually plump for, here are the main options which are likely to be on the table.

Reverse Brexit fully, rejoin the EU

The most radical option – though potentially the ‘cleanest’ one in technical terms – would be to fully reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU.

Burnham has been careful not to rule this maximalist position out. On Monday, he told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he would like to see Britain rejoin in his lifetime.

“In my lifetime I would like to see that happen but I am not going to move ahead of the public, I am not going to dictate,” he said.

Rejoining would require a standard application under Article 49, and then, assuming EU members unanimously backed candidate status, negotiation over membership terms.

Major sticking points would be whether the UK would have to adopt the euro and join the Schengen area, which allows for passport-free travel. In theory, Britain would have to sign up to both, but it is possible Brussels could give us back our former opt-outs. Burnham told : “I can’t see myself ever recommending anything that would involve joining the euro or Schengen.”

The big advantage of rejoining is that Britain would return to being an EU ‘rule-maker’, helping to shape the rules governing the bloc.

Political risk: There is no doubt that public opinion has turned against the decision to leave the EU – the latest BMG polling for The i Paper put rejoin on 45 per cent to 38 per cent for stay out. But this was the narrowest lead for several months. To rejoin would require a referendum and the two camps would fire up their campaign machines again. It could either put the issue to bed for a generation, or reopen old wounds.

Rejoin customs union

Another option would be to rejoin the EU’s customs union. The customs union involves a single tariff area for all goods imported from outside the EU, allowing goods to move freely between member states, with all members applying a common external tariff to imports coming into the bloc.

The main advantage to the UK from rejoining the customs union is that the external tariff removes the need for goods traded within the EU to prove their origin. This would cut much of the bureaucracy created by Brexit, with UK exporters no longer having to meet rules of origin to qualify for tariff-free trade with the EU, cutting admin costs.

However, the UK would have to give up its post-Brexit freedom to strike its own trade agreements. Rejoining the customs union would also not remove all post-Brexit border checks and red tape, because the UK would still be outside the single market.

Political risk: Carries the danger that it will please neither side, while doing little to improve the complications of trade.

Rejoin the single market

Rejoining the single market would reduce trade friction and improve the UK’s access to the EU market. However, it would come with major trade-offs.

Firstly, the UK would become a “rule-taker”: we would have to adopt the vast bulk of EU legislation but would not have the formal power to steer the creation of those laws ourselves. We would also almost certainly have to reintroduce freedom of movement, meaning Europeans would once again be able to travel freely to live and work in the UK (and vice versa).

In his interview with , Burnham said that freedom of movement had “very significant challenges associated with it”. However, he suggested “it was a type of immigration that perhaps wasn’t as difficult [as now]”, with some evidence suggesting post-Brexit migrants are more likely to bring family dependants and wish to settle permanently in the UK, compared to those Europeans who came before the referendum.

Political risk: Freedom of movement carries not just a danger in the form of attacks from Reform UK and the Conservatives – there are those in Burnham’s cabinet who are believed to be opposed to it. This option could risk ministerial resignations, and a divided Labour Party.

Swiss-style model

A variant of the aforementioned option would be for the UK to agree a Swiss-style deal with the EU.

Switzerland is not a member of the EU but has frictionless access to the single market via a web of bilateral agreements with Brussels. However, it still has to accept freedom of movement and make a contribution to the EU’s coffers, so it is not clear how superior this would be to the single market access which Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein have as European Free Trade Association (EFTA) states.

Political risks: It could prove difficult to persuade voters that Britain should pay into the EU and accept freedom of movement without having a say in EU policy.

Burnham could try to secure a tailor-made agreement with the EU rather than opting for other “off-the-shelf” models.

In some ways, this is what the UK is already pursuing. As part of the ongoing Brexit “reset” process which he inherited from his predecessor Sir Keir Starmer, Burnham is currently negotiating a deal with Brussels covering food and drink, carbon emissions trading and under-30s migration. The deal is expected to be unveiled at a UK-EU summit in Brussels on 20 November.

Burnham could continue the process of trying to move the UK closer to the EU on an incremental basis by making specific agreements with the bloc. Potentially, this could at some stage be badged up as the UK having some sort of EU “associate membership”. Brussels is already discussing the idea of associate membership with Canada, but it is not yet really clear what this would entail. In any case, senior European diplomats think that Britain would likely have a closer relationship to the EU than Canada because of our geographical location and history as a former member.

Political risk: The least riskiest option. Starmer has laid the groundwork, so the public is well prepared. Easier trade and a youth mobility scheme are not unpopular. A deal-by-deal process would allow public opinion to be weighed as negotiations move along.

Would there need to be a second referendum?

Politically, it is difficult to imagine the UK rejoining the EU without a second referendum.

If Burnham opted for a less radical option – such as membership of the customs union – then a referendum might not be necessary. Instead, Burnham could put a pledge to rejoin the customs union in Labour’s next manifesto. If he won the next general election, he would have the mandate to make it happen.

Rejoining the single market would be more complex, because it would likely involve freedom of movement. On Monday, Burnham said that he would not reintroduce freedom of movement without a referendum. The Prime Minister told broadcasters he would “never move ahead of the British public when it comes to Brexit”.

Later on Monday, a Downing Street spokesperson tried to play down the Prime Minister’s remarks, saying that no decisions had yet been made about the new relationship or the process for getting the public’s backing for it.

The spokesperson said: “The Prime Minister isn’t proposing a return to freedom of movement or any option. He is saying that it’s time for us to discuss what kind of long-term relationship with Europe is best for Britain, and he is referring to the types of areas that that agreement and long-term future could cover. But he is crucially not leaning either way, and that will be for the British public to decide.”

For now at least, the Government’s official position is that it will stick to the red lines in Labour’s 2024 manifesto for the whole of this Parliament: no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.

Original source Five options for reversing Brexit and the political risk

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