Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s Secretary of War, came out swinging on Tuesday, called the move to impeach him a “farce” and a “stunt”.

“This is not patriotism, this is sabotage,” he told a press conference at the Pentagon, adding that it “tells our enemies, Iran, the cartels, every adversary watching, that the United States will actually punish its own warriors and its own civilian leadership for successfully executing lawful military operations”.

“What one disgruntled and defeated Congressman is attempting is not oversight, and it’s not accountability,” Hegseth added.

The fate of one of the main architects of Trump’s war on Iran has come to the fore after the disastrous midterm election results for the President’s Republican Party. The Democrats elected last week don’t take their seats in Congress until January – but the repercussions against senior White House officials have already firmly started.

Thomas Massie, a Republican congressman, has laid out articles of impeachment against Hegseth, and it’s possible there will be enough votes to pass the motion in the House and trigger a full trial in the Senate – effectively putting Trump’s wildly unpopular Iran war further under the microscope.

“I hope he addresses the eight articles [of impeachment] and doesn’t get up and misquote the Bible in Quentin Tarantino fashion and do some pull-ups and, you know, call everybody fat and gay,” Massie said of Hegseth, adding: “I may have just given you half his speech.”

Hegseth, for now, is talking tough, and Trump is sticking by him, in public at least. “Really, what has Hegseth done?” Trump asked, vowing to “stand by” his cabinet appointee.

The move against Hegseth – from a Republican, no less – is likely just the beginning of what will prove to be a form of loyalty test for those around Trump, as his presidency enters a new phase after a humiliating loss. Some will expect to be fired, some will eye the exits and others will look to stay on.

Trump himself, of course, is secure until January 2029, barring truly extraordinary circumstances, such as his removal from office through impeachment – which would require the vote of two-thirds of the Senate – or the 25th Amendment being invoked, which would require his own Cabinet to turn on him.

But the calculus for those around him is very different. There is also pressure on Trump to find scapegoats for the disastrous electoral results, and to publicly fire them to show voters – and Republican lawmakers – that he understands the need to change course.

That suggests some high-profile firings could be on the way. Hegseth would be an obvious early firing or scapegoat.

Similarly, Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s mass deportations policy – which saw Hispanic support swing away from Republicans by more than 25 points nationwide – would be another obvious candidate. Instead, he has been promoted to White House chief of staff, making him more prominent than ever.

Miller’s elevation was made possible by the departure of Susie Wiles, the veteran political operative who held the role. But if Wiles has been fired and blamed for the disastrous results, the White House has kept that very quiet. Wiles has faced little public criticism, and it was even suggested she chose to walk away.

That would make Wiles the most prominent official to leave before the pressure really heats up, but she’s not alone. Already, several prominent Department of Justice officials have announced their exits: the head of its national security division, its civil rights unit head and the official who led a probe into those who investigated Trump have all resigned.

Others may follow before Democrat lawmakers take their newly won majorities in January and kick off the expected rounds of probes and investigations into actions by the Trump administration.

By then, the President will hope to have secured his core group of staffers – those who will be with him in the bunker for the final years of his presidency as he wages a war of attrition against his political foes.

The power of a US president always diminishes in the final months of his second term, for the simple reason that everyone knows he will soon be gone. Attention moves to the contenders for the throne. When a president is deeply unpopular and his party doesn’t control Congress, that happens all the quicker.

Trump will need a hardcore group of loyalists willing to push the Constitution to its limits to further the more controversial aspects of his agenda over the next two years – and will rely on his last and most essential power to keep them onside.

Officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have some distance from the President – they aren’t in the White House daily, don’t know where the bodies are buried and might decide their futures lie apart from Trump. But those in the core operation itself – Miller, Natalie Harp and others directly around the Oval Office – face a different kind of calculus.

Trump can – until the last moment before he leaves office – issue blanket pardons for anyone he wishes. This is a wonderful tool to hang over the heads of his core team: if you leave early, will Trump still remember your name when he comes to drafting his final pardon list?

Pardons help Trump change the equation for those deciding whether sticking around or a hasty exit is best for their own prospects. Some will feel like they don’t have much of a choice.

For Trump, between now and January he’ll be looking for loyalists who’ll likely be with him until the end. Increasingly, it seems like he’s choosing who will get a berth alongside him in the bunker.