“He’s a turncoat”, said Kate Wood, an optometrist and artist from Newark-on-Trent. “He should have resigned when he defected, that’s how our political system should work.”

The 67-year-old is talking about her MP, Robert Jenrick, who had represented this East Midlands constituency as a Conservative since 2014 but who defected to Reform UK this year.

Recent polling predicted the Conservative Party would retake the seat if a general election were held “tomorrow”, taking 37 per cent of the vote to unseat Jenrick, one of Nigel Farage’s close allies.

Many residents of this small town echoed this view – underlining the precarious position Reform finds itself in as it pours resources into seats held by high-profile defectors to ensure Conservatives don’t take them back.

Newark has long been a Tory stronghold. When Jenrick defected, it was the first time a non-Conservative had represented the Nottinghamshire constituency since 2001.

Mandy Brunning, who manages a cafe in the town centre, is a Conservative voter who plans to stick with the party instead of the candidate in a next election.

She said the polling predicting a Tory victory is “probably right”.

“I think people will think, we might be better off with the devil we know,” the 56-year-old said, speculating that many Conservative voters wouldn’t jump ship to back Jenrick. “I think it was a mistake, him defecting. He’s got his faults but he did try and work hard for the area.”

Keith Girling, leader of the local Conservative Association, agreed that many Tories won’t feel they can back Jenrick anymore after his defection.

“It’s gone down really poorly, the way he tried to leave [the party],” he said. “There’s nothing genuine about him.”

Nathan Chaney, 23, a Green voter, is confident Jenrick will lose his seat, so much so that he doesn’t think he would need to vote tactically for the Conservatives to get him out.

“People are going to vote Tory because that’s what they’ve always done,” the barista said. “Looking at the local Facebook page, I don’t think many people have nice things to say about Robert Jenrick. It’s a lot of ‘he’s only out for himself’, which I tend to agree with.”

“Robert Jenrick’s changed since he became a Reform MP. I think a lot of people in Newark don’t like that abruptness and the issues he talks about,” he said.

Not all residents feel that way. Chris Dunn, 80, long-time Conservative voter, thinks Jenrick has earned some personal loyalty, calling him “accessible” and saying he’d “done a lot” for the town, including easing traffic by building a new link road.

A keen runner impressed with Jenrick for joining the Newark Park Run, Dunn believes any impending election in the area would be a “hard call” but that the MP would still win, with some long-time Conservative voters like himself switching to Reform to back Jenrick.

“He’s a very popular man,” he said. “He’s got the name.”

Reform has indeed seen a recent victory in the area. It won a by-election in East Markham – which doesn’t cover Newark-on-Trent but forms part of the wider constitutency – on 15 September 15 with 49.6 per cent of the vote, taking the seat from the Conservatives.

A Reform spokesman said: “Only recently, Reform won a by-election in Robert Jenrick’s constituency with a 44 per cent swing from the Tories. Selective quotes by The i Paper don’t change the fact that when real votes are counted, Reform is beating the Conservatives across the country, including in Newark.”

Jenrick did not respond to a request for comment.

Benefits record splits voters

Andy, 60, who declined to give his surname, is delighted to have a Reform MP, saying that any alternative to the Conservatives and Labour is “absolutely fantastic”.

He particularly welcomed Jenrick’s proposal to reassess out-of-work benefits, saying the welfare bill needs to come down. “I know people who’ve never worked a day in their life, and now the youngsters can’t get jobs,” he said.

He said he and his wife used to vote Labour but have now “seen the light” and will be voting Reform from now on, echoing many of the party’s talking points. “We need change – someone who can stop the boats, scrap foreign aid, lower the retirement age,” he said.

However, Jenrick’s record on benefits has unnerved some voters. More than 6,000 people in his constituency claim personal independence payments (PIP). By contrast, Jenrick won on a majority of 3,571 in the 2024 election.

Since joining Reform he has become the face of its economic policy, announcing plans to cut the welfare bill by £50bn. But the party has given little detail on how it would deliver these savings.

Brunning, the cafe manager, feels Jenrick was good as a constituency MP, but is concerned by what he has said about cutting disability benefits, including withdrawing support to nearly three million people on PIP.

Brunning used to work in the care sector and says people “genuinely do need” benefits. “I understand they’ve got to cut welfare, but I think they need someone with a bit of compassion and empathy,” she said. She doesn’t think Jenrick has that.

Marie Glover, 64, didn’t vote in the last election and isn’t sure she will next time. She said she can’t vote for Jenrick because he doesn’t understand the issues his constituents face.

“He’s always in London now, not here where he’s supposed to be. He’s let people down,” she said.

While Glover says she gets “enough” to get by, her daughter, who also receives benefits, has been waiting for two years for a house for her and her children.

“If [Jenrick] went on single benefit for a month, lived in a flat with nothing in it – I’d like to see him try to pay for his bills and his taxes,” Glover said. “He seems to favour the rich more than anyone else.”

Other voters The i Paper spoke to voiced concerns over the £72m Reform received in donations from cryptocurrency billionaires.

Dave Everington, 71, a retired primary school headteacher who declined to share his voting history, agrees that Jenrick has lost the faith of constituents.

Everington thinks illegal immigration needs to come down and the benefits system reformed “in a fair way”, but has “no time” for how Reform and Jenrick are going about it.

“Where will the money come from? … We know what they’re going to do with the money they cut from the benefits bill – it’ll go on tax cuts for the rich,” he suggested.

He also said the defection made Jenrick look “two-faced” and “shifty”.

“He’s looking after himself,” Everington said, adding of Reform: “I don’t trust them at all.”