Fears of an uncontained escalation spiral are rising after Russia openly threatened attacks on the UK and other European countries amid a surge in suspected sabotage operations.
President Vladimir Putin said this week that any potential strikes on British military facilities would remain a “military secret”, after the UK agreed to provide Ukraine with missile blueprints capable of striking targets deep within Russia.
Thieves steal 11 sheep from Jeremy Clarkson’s farm
Jeremy Clarkson has said that 11 sheep have been stolen from his Diddly Squat farm in Oxfordshire.
Clarkson appeals to thieves
Clarkson, 66, said the Easycare sheep were worth more than £2,000 at market, and has urged the thieves to “put them back”.
He told : “The police have been very good, actually… I said, ‘I know it’s going to sound like I’m from 1856, but I’ve had some sheep stolen’.”
- Clarkson claimed the theft had occurred at night – or during the day when the farm was not being filmed for its Prime Video TV show.
- He said of recording days that there is “a film crew here all the time” and ”a drone in the air”, which may have deterred or even caught the thieves.
- Asked whether he believed the show had made his farm a target, Clarkson said: “It’s more likely to make you a target than less, but I still don’t think they’ve been stolen because they’re on Diddly Squat.”
- He added: “This is 1,000 acres, it’s a big farm. Anyone could be anywhere and you wouldn’t know.”
No arrests made as livestock theft costs farms £4.5 million
The theft was reportedly raised with Thames Valley Police by Cooper and land manager Charlie Ireland. No arrests have been made and the force has appealed for anyone with information to contact them.
The National Farmers Union (NFU) reported in May that livestock theft had increased by nearly a third in 2025 – costing British farmers £4.5 million.
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Taking a trip abroad? Beware the EU change coming in next week
A journey into the European Union may soon take travellers significantly longer as the bloc prepares to reintroduce Entry/Exit System (EES) checks.
The fingerprint scans led to reports of six-hour-long airport queues earlier this year and threaten to disrupt journeys during the October half-term.
- The EU allowed member states to delay the full rollout over the summer in the event of sizeable disruption.
- However, this flexibility will be removed from Monday, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) trade group.
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Missed flights and connections
Delays caused by EES, which was launched in April, have resulted in people missing flights, being offloaded from aircraft and missing connections.
Border checks criticism
The new checks have received widespread criticism from travel industry figureheads.
Kenton Jarvis, the boss of easyJet, warned that the EU risked putting Britons off visiting altogether if they were forced to queue for hours or risk being stranded after missing their return flight.
Thomas Reynaert, head of external affairs at the IATA, said the scheme would only work once the technology is reliable and all installed booths are operational.
Even then, staff numbers must be sufficient to take over the manual processing of passengers should the system break down.
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EES gives Europe ‘bad rep’
These are real impacts being felt by passengers. That’s bad if you’re travelling alone and even worse if you’re travelling with family and small children. It gives Europe a bad reputation. When systems fail, passengers lose trust in the system and when people are late, airlines pay a high cost.
Thomas Reynaert, head of external affairs at the International Air Transport Association
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How AI is surging fraud cases to £10m a year
AI has enabled fraud losses to swell to nearly £10m this year, up from £1.2m the year before, the City of London Police Report Fraud study has found.
It comes amid a general increase in fraud, as the force reported that more than £3.2bn was lost to fraudsters in that period, up 26 per cent on the previous year.
How is AI making fraud worse?
AI is making common investment and romance scams much more sophisticated, meaning they appear more legitimate and real than they did in the past.
- Romance fraudsters can use AI to create fake but realistic dating and social media profiles, build relationships using real-time translation tools, and create fraud scripts for “automated relationship management”, the study said.
- Cases of “facetiming” make it “almost certain” that real-time AI generation is being used to dupe victims, it added.
- AI can also be used to create imitations of trusted public figures endorsing investment opportunities, while AI-cloned voices are being used to bypass banking security measures.
AI fraud on the rise
Breaking down the numbers
20%
The rise in investment fraud
The amount lost to romance fraud
Romance fraud rose by 15 per cent in the last year
Criminals are using -generated adverts, celebrity deep fakes, synthetic identities, voice technologies to make their approach to victims more and more compelling and believable on an ongoing basis, and I think is clearly a leader in that space.
City of London Police’s service delivery director Chris Bell
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Why yellow fever mosquitoes are now breeding in the UK
An invasive mosquito species known to spread yellow fever, dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses has been found breeding in some east London homes.
While it is the fourth time the Aedes aegypti insects have been detected in the UK – it is the first time they have been discovered reproducing.
Accidental hitchikers
These insects are usually found in countries with tropical and subtropical climates and are believed to have been transported into the country accidentally in baggage, on vehicles, or in nursery plants.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said the risk to the public was low and there was no evidence of humans being infected.
Measures are now in place to destroy the larvae, and surveillance and trapping have been stepped up as part of the UKHSA’s Mosquito Watch scheme.
Too cold to survive in UK
Despite recent heatwaves, the overall UK climate is too cold for this species to survive long-term, the UKHSA said.
However, some expects warn that the UK would continue to see cases of invasive mosquitoes. As the climate warms, there may also be increased reports of them being able to survive.
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There is no evidence that these mosquitoes have caused human infections and importantly, to date, there is no evidence of the mosquitoes or larvae being detected in nearby public areas.
UKHSA’s head of medical entomology, Dr Jolyon Medlock
Hidden stowaways
Insects and other hidden stowaways such as lizards, geckos, and snakes can accidentally enter the UK inside shipments.
The massive volume of global plant trade means shipments move too fast for customers to catch every small creature or minuscule larvae.
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What to know as Argentina threatens Falkland Islands oil fields
Argentina’s President has said he will impose sanctions on oil drilling off the Falkland Islands amid heightened tensions between the UK and Argentina.
In a national address, Javier Milei said the “winds of change” favoured Argentina’s claim to control over the British territory, as the US reviews its position on the dispute.
Milei seeks oil firm sanctions
- The Argentine President said he would boost efforts to levy penalties against the companies, as well as their shareholders, directors and suppliers.
- Milei pledged to increase defence resources to build a naval base in the nearby Tierra del Fuego province.
- He has also promised to send Congress an urgent “national sovereignty defence” bill aimed at strengthening Argentina’s response to what he called unauthorised operations around the islands.
Urgent threat to Argentine interests
“If we do not act swiftly, in a few months they will have the material capacity to access the oil that lies underneath our sea – something that has never happened before.
Milei said Argentina had determined that the Sea Lion offshore project, operated by Navitas Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration, could begin oil development in the coming months.
Long-running soveriegnty dispute
The Falkland Islands have been a self-governing British Overseas Territory subject to a long-running sovereignty dispute with Argentina since the 19th century.
Argentina invaded the islands in 1982. The conflict lasted 74 days and ended in Argentine surrender after claiming the lives of 649 Argentine military personnel, 255 British military personnel, and three Falkland Islanders.
In a 2013 referendum, Falkland Islanders voted overwhelmingly to remain a British overseas territory, with 99.8 per cent voting in favour – and just three votes against.
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‘Falkland Islanders choose to be British’
In a statement on X, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said: “The Falklands are British because Falkland Islanders choose to be British.
“Our commitment to the Falklands is absolute and unshakeable.”
Trump suggests he would not help UK in Argentina invades Falklands
Milei’s comments follow a suggestion by Donald Trump that he would not back the UK if Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.
Trump, who has strongly criticised the UK’s stance on the US-Israeli war on Iran, told GB News: “Your country was not there to help me.”
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Inside the BBC meltdown over licence fee’s future
Scrambling to find £500m
The BBC is scrambling to cut £500m from its budget after executives discovered a gap in finances which shocked even new director-general Matt Brittin.
It comes as the number of households paying the £180-a-year licence fee fell by half a million last year to 23 million, the latest BBC accounts show.
The previous year, accounts showed a 300,000 drop in licence fee payers.
The BBC’s chief financial officer, Bérangère Michel, said earlier this year that the drop in TV licences had “resulted in an unsustainable financial position”.
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More job cuts to come
The BBC must cut £500m from its budget by 2028 – with £160m to be delivered immediately. The corporation has already announced 550 job cuts in news, nations and TV and radio content as part of the first stage in its savings plan.
Other cost-cutting options include cutting BBC Four arts and its archive channel and moving its content to BBC Two. The BBC Three youth channel could also be under threat.
‘Every part of BBC affected’
- More shows are set to be axed, following this week’s decision to scrap , insiders said.
- In a staff memo, seen by The i Paper, interim BBC head of news Jonathan Munro, said the 200 job closures announced in June would be followed by “further post closures (in news)” in the coming months.
- “Every part of BBC News will be affected, including senior leaders, and we’re reviewing some on-air roles,” said Munro.
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Familiar faces set to depart
There will be familiar faces leaving, presenters, on-screen correspondents. They will be looking for a small number of expensive on-air people who they might try to persuade to leave sooner than they expected. It’s all up in the air.
A leading news figure told the i paper
Apprentice jobs also hit
- Apprentices were also told they could no longer expect jobs, as a result of the cuts.
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Four things to know as Reform reported to the police over ‘funding breach’
Reform UK has been reported to the police over allegedly breaching political donation rules.
The allegations
In the Channel 4 report, Reform’s Dan Jukes, discusses with a donor ways to allegedly get around electoral rules by securing a £500,000 donation via a foreign source.
The report, carried out by Verbatim Investigations, appears to show head of policy James Orr, suggesting the donor’s father could pay for polling. The report claims Reform commissioned three polls £32,500 in total and that the public was not told who commissioned or funded them.
The law
Under UK law, foreign companies are not a permissible source of funding for political parties, including payments for studies and research. Accepting donations from them could constitute a criminal offence.
Reform claimed it was the victim of a hoax and denied any wrongdoing.
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Reform’s response:
Reform UK has been the target of a hoax perpetuated by foreign-funded, climate change activists posing as would-be party donors. The party denies any wrongdoing.
A Reform Spokesperson
Reform UK has a robust vetting process for prospective donors approved by the Electoral Commission.
Who reported Reform?
- The Lib Dems have written to the Met Police and Electoral Commission saying that James Orr, a senior adviser to Farage, facilitating the donation from an impermissible donor would breach the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act.
- Labour also intends to report the matter to the police, it is understood, while the Greens have called for an investigation.
- The Met said it is assessing the reports.
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‘No money reached Reform UK at all,’ says Orr
Orr, Reform’s policy head who is at the centre of the allegations, said that “no money reached Reform UK at all”.
“It was a public poll arranged by an independent person paying an independent pollster, and those polls were published immediately for the general public,” he said in a video posted to X.
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Aides step down
Both Orr and Jukes have stepped down from their roles. Farage said Reform UK has “broken no laws” and has not “taken any dodgy money” amid allegations the party breached political donation rules.
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Two rescued a week after Nepal floods
Two people have been rescued alive from a hydropower tunnel in Nepal, nine days after
a catastrophic flash flood killed more than 1,200 people.
Some 39 workers are still believed to be trapped inside the Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project, according to Suresh Raut, a senior official of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).
Rescued workers named
Authorities have named Sanjaya Shah, a mechanical foreman with the NEA, as the first person to be rescued from tunnels.
The second person rescued is Kabir Maharjan, the BBC reported.
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Injuries to hands and feet
- Both workers have injuries on their hands and legs, thought to be from crawling through the tunnel.
- They are also suffering from lack of oxygen, authorities said.
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Huge rescue mission
Hundreds of the more than 5,000 still missing are labourers working in a vast network of tunnels at hydropower sites along the river.
Engineers have been pumping air into the hydropower tunnels as part of the huge rescue operation. Aside from the tunnel, it is estimated that over 5,000 people remain missing in Nepal and Tibet.
The rescues inject hope into an otherwise gruelling mission through thick mud.
A tunnelling expert told the news agency that teams had already dug through debris blocking the tunnel for 50-60 metres (164-196 feet) before finding survivors.
They were hoping for a breakthrough, said Arnold Dix, president of the International Tunnelling and Underground Space Association.
“After a week of 24/7 heartache, we might, just, be back in miracle country.”
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Germany then announced that Russia was responsible after explosive-packed drones were found last month near a Ukrainian cargo plane at a German airport. The government described it as part of a “well-established pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe”. Russia called the accusation “absurd”.
Moscow has waged a covert campaign against its perceived enemies for years, and the UK’s assessment on the threat from Russia has not presently changed, The i Paper understands.
Western officials told The i Paper that Russia has a “very clear appetite” to conduct grey-zone attacks on Nato countries – incidents aimed at disrupting or damaging a country below the threshold for all-out war – but stressed that they believed the Kremlin wanted to avoid direct confrontation with the alliance.
Political sources said they were unsurprised by Russia’s recent threats, adding that they reiterated previous menacing statements and were designed to scare Nato allies into reducing support for Ukraine and fracture Western unity.
However, there has been a recent uptick in suspected attacks, particularly this year, increasing the risk of such an incident resulting in casualties or other major consequences.
That has prompted fears that a miscalculation could spark uncontained escalation that could lead to all-out war between Russia and Nato countries.
Political sources acknowledged that Europe-Russia relations were at a “very low ebb” and that there was a risk that Russia could miscalculate in its aggression.
There are several scenarios that could see Russia’s attacks inadvertently – or deliberately – rise above the threshold for war.
Ethreatening an airport
A serious sabotage or arson attack on a Nato country, particularly on a sensitive site such as an airport, could lead to escalation. Russia is already taking steps in this direction.
The discovery of an explosive-laden drone at Leipzig airport last month rang alarm bells in Europe, with German authorities blaming Russia. The device failed to explode due to a fault, but is believed to have been one of three Russian drones in or around the airport over the same period.
Russia’s military intelligence service is also believed to be behind a series of parcels which exploded in the UK and Europe. One caught fire at Leipzig airport in 2024 just before it was due to be loaded onto an aircraft, with the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency saying it was simple luck that the device had not ignited mid-air.
Another parcel ignited inside a DPD truck as it was crossing Poland, while another caught fire at a DHL depot near Birmingham.
Polish prosecutors have said that the exploding parcels were rehearsals for sabotaging flights to the US and Canada. Investigators found two test packages sent to the US and Canada and two in Amsterdam.
Polish authorities are also investigating if foreign intelligence services were involved in a fire at a drone component factory this week.
Ed Arnold, a senior associate fellow at the defence think-tank Rusi and a former British Army officer, said that although sabotage had long been part of the Russian playbook, there had been a “shift” in the nature of the attacks and an increased risk in recent months.
If a Russian attack succeeded in destroying a plane, potentially with civilian casualties, which was a risk of the incident in Leipzig, then Europe would “really have to respond”, Arnold said.
Russia has previously launched deadly attacks on civilian airliners that killed hundreds of passengers. In 2014, Russian-backed forces fired a Buk missile at Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board. A UN investigation found Russia responsible.
After the crash, the EU hit Russia with wide-ranging sanctions.
Then in 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 crashed in Kazakhstan after being hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile while approaching Grozny in Chechnya. Of the 67 people on-board, 38 were killed. The crash prompted a crisis in relations between Baku and Moscow.
Retaliation for an attack on a European plane or airport would not be in kind, targeting Russian civilians, Arnold said. More probable options would include cyber attacks or assistance for Ukraine to inflict further damage on Russia.
Russia could also seek to sabotage military targets, such as ships in a port.
“If it’s Kremlin deliberate policy to test Nato and that window of opportunity, according to US intelligence, has already started, then it’s going to start with hybrid attacks,” Arnold said.
“You’re going to start with targeting the things that are going to Ukraine. You’re going to start with targeting Nato ships while they’re in port because they’re static. You don’t have to destroy the ship, but if you take out a frigate’s radar, then you basically disable the frigate.”
The Nato response to a civilian or military sabotage incident would likely fall below a declaration of war, but could involve steps towards that outcome.
In the case of a serious attack, Nato would convene an emergency meeting under Article 4, which allows for emergency consultation whenever a member’s “territorial integrity, political independence or security” is threatened.
That could lead to discussions of whether or not an incident is serious enough to invoke Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, and is the basis for a collective military response.
Drone incursion
Russia could also take Europe to the brink of war by flying a drone into the airspace of a Nato country and killing citizens or seriously damaging crucial infrastructure.
Putin’s forces have already sent a series of drones into alliance airspace, most seriously when a drone hit an apartment building in Romania in May, injuring two people and sparking a major fire. In September 2025, Poland called an urgent meeting after multiple Russian drones entered its airspace, and in the same month, three Russian fighter jets flew over Estonia.
To cause an all-out conflict with Nato, the attack would have to constitute “a meaningful incursion on territorial integrity, and/or accompanied by loss of life”, said Melanie Garson, a professor of international security at UCL.
“It would have to be something that was sufficient to trigger a country needing to respond in self defence, like a substantial drone attack,” she said. “Something that sparked an accidental fire, or appeared to be a stray missile, might not meet the threshold and could still come under sabotage. I think it would have to be clear, deliberate, targeted.”
“That’s why grey-zone conflict works,” she added. “It creates that instability without really triggering the need for kinetic self-defence.”
Russia will be trying to keep up that grey-zone conflict without prompting an Article 5 Nato response.
If a drone caused significant damage in a Nato country, Russia could deny responsibility, or claim that interference with the drone’s guidance led it to stray off course.
To escalate to all-out war, Nato would need to analyse the remains of the drone, including its payload, to draw a conclusion on its origins. But it may also put the burden of proof on Russia to explain the drones – and why it wasn’t warned.
“Russia is using precision technologies all the time,” Garson said. “If it wasn’t deliberate and attributable, it would have been on the Russians to give a warning – to say, ‘we’ve lost control of it, but we don’t want this to be construed as an attack,’ and possibly to make a public apology afterwards.”
A drone strike that caused serious damage or casualties, with clear evidence pointing to the Kremlin, with no prior warning, could plausibly lead to invocation of Article 5.
Land grab
There are several possible sites that could be vulnerable, including Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, Finland’s Åland islands, and Sweden’s Gotland island. Security analysts have also speculated about a potential incursion into the Baltic states, with a recent visit by CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow prompting a wave of speculation about potential Russian plans to target Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania.
The most likely target is Lithuania, as part of an attempt to build a land corridor between Russia and Kaliningrad, Arnold suggested.
Russia may also now perceive Nato members to be easier prey due to disinterest – and sometimes hostility – from the Trump administration towards Europe, raising doubts over whether the US would come to their aid.
Arnold said the Kremlin might see a window of opportunity. “My assessment is that Putin has an opportunity here to defeat Nato because of, ultimately, [Donald] Trump and [Secretary of War Pete] Hegseth. I think he genuinely thinks he’s not going to get a better shot at this,” he said.
“Russia understands that it can’t defeat Nato militarily, but they can defeat it politically. And to do that, it has to be a land grab, because if you blow up a commercial airliner, European resolve hardens – it doesn’t weaken.”
“If Europe struggles to react, you expose Article 5 as hollow, and Putin effectively defeats Nato,” he said.
But if Nato did enforce the protocol, it would be face-to-face with Russia in a hot war.