The major climate phenomenon El Niño could bring a wet, stormy winter to the UK and risks disrupting vital global supply chains as experts warn of its “unprecedented” strength.
American scientists have predicted the high likelihood of a “super” El Niño, the most powerful since 1950, with the potential for flooding and drought in some countries.
El Niño is part of a natural cycle and forms when warmer waters spread across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is associated with widespread changes in the climate system that can last for up to a year.
Economy grows by 0.4% – what you need to know
The UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, new data has shown.
What is driving the growth
The growth comes after a first quarter in which the economy expanded by 0.6 per cent and has been boosted by the summer sun and sports events, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Computer programming, advertising and the pharmaceutical industry were areas of strength, the ONS said, but this was offset by falls in power generation and sewerage.
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Housing nightmares
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Growth likely to slow
The economy is now 1.2% bigger than a year ago, but economists warn growth is likely to slow in the second half of the year.
Speaking to the , Fergus Jimenez-England, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said: “Both inflation and unemployment are set to rise in the coming months while business sentiment remains fragile and could dampen further with ongoing energy price volatility.”
I’m a pension expert with a £300,000 pot – here are my golden rules for saving
Kirsty Ross has been working in the pensions industry for 15 years but says experts have the same fears and anxieties as everyone else.
How ‘black hole stars’ could explain mystery of the early universe
Strange red spots in images from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) may be a newly discovered type of object called a “black hole star” that is larger than our entire solar system.
Supermassive blackholes
Astronomers have said the objects may help to explain how supermassive blackholes formed so early in the history of the universe.
They lie at the hearts of galaxies and play a key role in determining their growth and evolution.
Solving a puzzle for cosmologists
Supermassive blackholes appear to have formed very soon after the birth of the universe, puzzling cosmologists over how they had time to grow so much during the universe’s infancy.
However, the red dot found by the JWST, which is believed to have formed 660 million years after the Big Bang, may be an infant black hole surrounded by a “cloak of gas” that feeds it as it grows, according to analysis published in the journal .
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The organ in your chest that could be key to living longer
The thymus was once thought to be nearly useless in adults – now scientists think it could be vital for our health.
Nurses ‘collapsing on shift’ due to heatwave – what we know
Nurses are collapsing during shifts amid “inhumane and impossible” conditions caused by extreme heat, their union has warned.
Union warns of unsafe conditions
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) has become the latest union to warn of unsafe working conditions for its members as the number of days over 30°C is already at a new record of 35 this summer.
The union has said some staff have collapsed, while others were left dizzy, nauseous or at risk of fainting while dripping with sweat “from head to toe”.
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What is being done about it?
The NHS has been ordered by health secretary Yvette Cooper to prepare for the effects of heatwaves each year in the same way that it prepares for winter.
Earlier this year, the Climate Change Committee of MPs said that the government should ensure cooling measures are installed in all hospitals and care homes by 2035.
Nurses are being ‘failed’
When nursing staff are collapsing, feeling dizzy, sick or even being admitted to the very hospitals they work in because their workplaces cannot handle the heat, it shows just how badly they are being failed.
RCN chief executive and general secretary Professor Nicola Ranger
Stunning solar eclipse dazzles Europe – in pictures
From Aberdeen to Penzance, from Aberystwyth to Hull, skywatchers were out in force yesterday to see the best solar eclipse in a generation.
In pictures
The spectacle continues
A once-in-a-lifetime experience for many
The event sparked huge interest for people across the UK as the Moon covered more than 90 per cent of the Sun.
It was the first time for many, with the last full eclipse occurring in August 1999. However, eclipse enthusiasts will have to wait until 23 September 2090 for the next one.
A scramble for eclipse glasses
Looking directly at the eclipse with the naked eye, or even sunglasses, can cause permanent damage, so a scramble for eclipse glasses ensued around the country.
Huge queues formed at shops which still had stock left, while many had already sold out and were forced to turn away customers.
Temperatures to hit 38°C today as amber warning expanded
Sweltering temperatures of up to 38°C are set to hit the UK today.
The Met Office has today issued an updated amber extreme heat warning for areas across the UK lasting from 9:00 to 23:00.
The relentless heat means that this summer is likely to be the hottest on record.
A dangerous period of heat
The sweltering temperatures forecast today mark the peak of the UK’s latest heatwave.
Tropical nights, where temperatures fail to drop below 20°C, are also expected as humid air spreads into western areas, which can place additional stress on the body.
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An extraordinarily dry period
The lack of rain has piled pressure on farming, freight shipping and energy production, after the UK saw its driest July in 190 years.
Up to 27 million people find themselves under water-use restrictions and 1,017 wildfires have devastated vegetation across England and Wales so far this year, according to the National Fire Chiefs Council.
Temperature records likely to be beaten
More long-standing temperature records are likely to be broken over the coming days.
- Wednesday became the first day in August to reach 35°C or more, making it the 4th consecutive month to reach this temperature.
- If temperatures reach 36°C or higher, 2026 will become the first year to record four separate days at or above that threshold.
- If temperatures reach 38°C today, there is a chance that the record for the hottest August day, which currently stands at 38.5°C, could be broken.
- Provided August temperatures remain average or above for the month, this summer will replace 2025 as the warmest on record.
The heatwave in pictures
Firefighters call for water bomb aircraft to tackle wildfires
Firefighters have called for “wildfire-fighting aircraft” to help combat spate of blazes as Britain braces for another heatwave, with temperatures set to rise above 35°C, possibly reaching 38°C.
Universities at risk of going bust before 2026 freshers finish their degrees
Some universities are at risk of going bust before 2026 freshers have finished their degrees, experts have warned.
Bankruptcies, mergers and course closures are expected to accelerate from 2030 because of a projected decline in the population of 18-year-olds.
Why are universities struggling?
An immigration crackdown on lucrative oversea students and limits on tuition fees for British students has taken a financial toll on universities.
- Analysts previously said at least 119 higher education providers, accounting for 43 per cent of the sector, are “struggling financially” because of budget deficits.
Looming mergers
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) think-tank, said that more mergers between institutions will “definitely” happen.
- Hillman said it is predicted that over the next five years, student numbers will drop despite a record number of 18-year-olds securing their first choice this year.
- The Russell Group of elite universities will likely snap these up and could mean that less prestigious universities lose over 25 per cent of their undergraduate student fee income, according to a report by HEPI.
Courses closing
Mergers and a decline in applications to specialist institutions could see a decline in the number of courses available.
This is already being seen, with around 27,000 courses available in clearing this year, compared to 30,000 reported in previous years, according to Ucas.
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The ‘dangerous’ scam tricking users into authorising
Concerns have been raised by the consumer group Which? over a “dangerous” scam that tricks victims into authorising card payments.
Familiar tactics
Which? warned that scammers may use similar tactics to those used in authorised push payment (APP) scams – where people are manipulated into making a bank transfer.
However, in this scam, victims are instead convinced to approve card payments.
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Victims may face difficulty in getting their money back
Which? warned that victims may struggle to claim for payments they have authorised to a legitimate company, as the company has provided the intended services, even though it is part of a chain of fraud.
How to protect yourself from scams
- Never share sensitive information.
- If you receive an unexpected call, ring your bank immediately.
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How stair walking could slash early death risk
Avoiding escalators or lifts could cut your risk of an early death as well as staving off heart attacks, heart failure and stroke, according to a study.
What you need to know
Stair study
Choosing the stairs is an “overlooked” way to get daily exercise, found researchers from the University of East Anglia.
Less likely to die
Regular stair climbers were 24 per cent less likely to die from any cause compared with those who don’t use the stairs as often.
Heart health
The findings suggest stair climbing may be linked to a fall in heart attacks and stroke.
What scientists say
It’s a good option for people who don’t have much time or easy access to exercise. Even brief bursts of physical activity have beneficial health impacts.
Dr Sophie Paddock of UEA’s Norwich Medical School
Why campaigners are encouraged
Juliet Bouverie, chief executive of the Stroke Association, said a stroke was the fourth most common cause of death in the UK.
Bouverie said it was “encouraging that something as simple as taking the stairs could reduce the risk of early death and may also be linked to fewer cardiovascular health problems including strokes”.
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It typically occurs every nine to 12 years for up to a year alternating with La Niña and cooler Pacific temperatures water temperatures, as part of a cycle called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Enso).
Despite occurring far from the UK, its effects are felt worldwide – potentially exacerbating the impact of climate change.
A milder, wetter and stormier UK
He said: “There’s nothing definite, but in general we would expect a milder, wetter, and stormier autumn, a colder winter, and then a possibility of a hotter summer next year.”
El Niño will strengthen towards the end of the year with a 97 per cent chance it will last through early spring 2027, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).
The El Niño of 1998 is the strongest of this century so far and saw more storms in the UK and the warmest year on record at the time.
Dr Alison Ming, research fellow in the Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics Group at Cambridge University, said: “What we do know is global thermal temperatures are rising, so you have an increase to your baseline.
“The super El Niño is likely to also give you another sixth of a degree increase on top of that to your global depth temperatures.”
However, she warned that the direct impact of El Niño on Europe is “a lot more uncertain” due to its distance.
The Met Office warns that El Niño is “just one (albeit very important) influence on climate variability”.
It adds that the weather response to El Niño “should not be seen as inevitable” and “should be regarded as shifting the odds in favour of the typical response which may, for example, increase the risk of heavy rainfall and consequent damage in a particular region or season”.
The more severe impact of El Niño on other countries could also have a knock-on effect on the economy and daily life in the UK.
Kelman said: “Perhaps more of concern is that El Niño definitely affects the weather in other places around the world, and so that can impact UK supply chains.
“We may see certain weather happening elsewhere, which then can lead to perhaps turbulence when we’re flying, perhaps increased flooding in certain places, which impacts electronic supply chains, and we may see consequences for imported food.”
Rice, sugar or coffee imports could be affected by potential flooding in South America. The shift of rainfall brought on by El Niño can also cause severe droughts in South East Asia and Australia.
“There is always a potential, for example, whether it’s wine or more exotic fruits and vegetables, to be less common on the UK shelves”, added Kelman.
Major floods near Bangkok in 2011 showed the potential impact on global electronic and manufacturing supply chains with a World Bank estimate of $46.5bn (£34.5bn) in total economic damages.
What is a super El Niño?
Scientists at Noaa announced in June that a new El Niño phase had started after recording sea surface temperatures more than 0.5°C above average in the central tropical Pacific.
They gave an 81 per cent chance that between October and December the occurrence “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950”.
Dr Ming said: “This is unprecedented. This is a very, very strong El Niño event.”