Andy Burnham is facing pressure from Labour grandees to rejoin the European Union.
Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, told The i Paper he wants Britain to return to the customs union “almost straight away” and a clear commitment in the next Labour manifesto to reverse Brexit without a second referendum.
It follows a call from Tony Blair for the Government to start working to re-enter the EU over the next decade.
However, Brexit experts are sceptical. Despite polls showing that a narrow majority of Britons support the idea of rejoining, it may require a much bigger shift in favour of EU membership, they told The i Paper.
More than half of international students are influenced by British fictional characters when deciding to study at universities here.
2,500 UK-based students from the US, China, India, Pakistan and Nigeria were surveyed for the British Council.
What are the key findings?
- It found that 83 per cent of international students said British culture was an important reason why they decided to study here.
- 59 per cent said fictional British characters were a draw, with 19 per cent citing Peppa Pig and 21 per cent Mr Bean as examples.
- British cultural icons like Princess Diana and David Beckham were also a major influence.
2 min read
Importance of soft power
A majority (62 per cent) of respondents said the UK music scene had been a major or strong influence on their decision to study here.
Among those who cited music, Ed Sheeran was the top named artist with 18 per cent, followed by Dua Lipa, Coldplay and Harry Styles.
What does this mean?
Catriona McCarthy, the British Council’s interim director for education, said the results tell us it is “crucial” that Britain remains “culturally vibrant” in order to retain its status as a global leader in higher education and attract the best students from around the world.
3 min read
How AI could help screen for type 2 diabetes
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology could be used to analyse speech to screen people for the disease, a study suggests.
What you need to know
- The tool was trained using more than 63,000 voice samples from more than 21,000 people in the UK and US.
- It was trained to detect changes in speech which have been linked to type 2 diabetes, such as increased hoarseness and an inability to control breath.
- The study found that the speech model gave a higher risk score to those who reported having type 2 diabetes 80 per cent of the time.
5 min read
How effective is it?
Giedre Cepukaityte, research scientist at tech company thymia, said the technology “opens a new route to screening for diabetes”. But she emphasised it is “not a replacement for a blood test”.
The technology performed well across different ages and genders, but its performance was lower on black patients.
It also wasn’t as effective with recordings from people with heart disease, high blood pressure or obesity.
2 min read
AI gets a cautious welcome
Dr Lucy Chambers, head of research impact and communications at Diabetes UK, said: “AI-based technologies could help identify more people who may benefit from diagnostic blood tests, but it’s crucial that they are rigorously designed and tested to make sure no-one slips through the net.”
5 min read
How quickly triple lock could end – and possible replacement
The future of the triple lock has been thrown into question after reports Andy Burnham is being told to scrap the scheme to fund his social care plans.
Experts say that at some point, the policy will have to be replaced with a way of increasing the state pension that is “more sustainable”.
A ‘double lock’
- A double lock linked to either earnings growth or inflation has been suggested as a possible alternative.
- Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell, said the starting point for this would determine what a “reasonable value” for the state pension should be, most likely as a percentage of median earnings.
- After deciding that figure, Selby said, you put in place “a sensible plan to reach that level”.
Link to earnings
Maike Currie, vice president of personal finance at PensionBee, said the simplest replacement would be an earnings-only link. This would mean the state pension broadly maintains its value relative to working people’s incomes.
But the Institute for Fiscal Studies has previously recommended introducing the ‘smoothed’ earnings link, which means pensioners receive inflation protection if inflation exceeds earnings.
Simple link to inflation
- Former pensions minister, Steve Webb, said another approach could link the state pension to inflation.
- This approach would create “big savings”, he said.
- But it would also substantially weaken the state pension at a time when millions of retirees are coming up to state pension age with very modest private savings.
2 min read
Who will be the most affected?
Currie said the triple lock being scrapped would impact people of all ages.
“For someone close to retirement, scrapping it could have a more immediate impact on their expected income,” she said.
As for younger generations, “the effect could potentially be greater over the long term, as smaller annual increases compound over decades”.
3 min read
3 min read
The northern pub chain offering £3 pints in London
Amber Taverns is adding a boozer in Bromley, a southeastern suburb of London, to its repertoire of 175 pubs, mainly based in the North West and North East of England.
It comes as pubs get increasingly expensive in the capital, where almost two pubs are closing every day.
Bromley’s new local
The Blackpool-based chain pours pints as cheap as £2.50 – a stark difference for Londoners accustomed to an average £6.50 per pint.
It keeps costs down by buying “unloved” former pubs and sticking to the basics. No hot food means no kitchen and no extra costs.
The Saving Grace will open on the former site of the Barrel and Horn on Bromley High Street.
It follows a spate of new openings in the south of England, including The Erasmus Wolfe in Gosport, Hampshire.
The future of pubs
James Baer, chairman of Amber Taverns, said: “People do still want to very much go to the pub, it’s just a matter of offering good value and a warm welcome. Amber remains a testament to the validity of thriving community pubs.”
He added he thinks there will be more opportunity for the chain to expand in the south of England in the future.
4 min read
7 min read
Angela Scanlon takes over Sara Cox’s Radio 2 drivetime slot
Angela Scanlon will take over the 4pm to 7pm slot on BBC Radio 2 every weekday from November.
Scanlon emerged victorious from a raft of presenters who covered the show over the summer, and will replace DJ Sara Cox.
What you need to know
Since Cox took up the mantle of BBC Radio 2’s breakfast show, the drivetime slot has been up for grabs.
Scanlon, who has previously hosted a Sunday morning programme on the station, has been appointed her successor.
She is also known for presenting The One Show, This Morning, the Get a Grip podcast and for starring in cing in 2023.
‘Every weekday, I’ll be in your ears’
Scanlon said it was “properly exciting” to host the show, adding: “Every weekday, I’ll be in your ears, your cars and your kitchens – on the school run, on the way home, or standing at the hob wondering what on earth to feed a small but hungry mob.”
BBC Radio 2 controller Helen Thomas said she was chosen because she is “incredibly warm and quick witted”.
4 min read
Putin’s drone threat to France should be a wake-up call
Russian affairs commentator
Russia has a wide range of choices if it continues stepping up its campaign against Europe.
It could develop its more furtive programme of attacks targeting countries including France, Italy and Britain with actions that are akin to low-grade state terrorism.
The shadow fleet threat
Spanish newspaper described Russian plans to mount attack drones in containers on its shadow fleet, to launch them against France, Spain and Italy.
The plot was disclosed following what’s been widely described as a warning to those countries from the CIA, although both France and Italy denied receiving any specific warning from the US.
4 min read
The weakest parts
- This month, Emmanuel Macron called leaders into the country’s crisis centre for a briefing on Russian threats.
- Many previously imagined that lying at the far end of Europe from Russia, France was not in immediate danger.
- But that overlooked Russia’s long-term investment in delivering damage at enormous distances through cyber and proxy attacks.
- That means Putin can strike not just at those parts of Nato that it can drive to, but at the weakest parts of the alliance.
Putin’s grey war
- A Russian “attack” can mean everything from a full-blown invasion of a Nato country, to what is already happening, like sponsoring more and bigger proxy and cyber attacks far behind the front lines.
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service has said there are no signs Russia is preparing for an “invasion” of another neighbour, but that the risk of some other form of military attack is “low but growing”.
Sunday morning’s arrests in a small village near RAF Fairford, with the involvement of counter-terrorism police, show the threat of hostile action in the UK is real.
It could also take five to 10 years to get back in, they warned – even if the Government was able to show that returning was the “settled will” of the British people. Here’s how rejoining might look.
A second referendum?
A second vote is not technically necessary for the UK government to apply to rejoin the EU. Labour could, in theory, apply to rejoin if they won the next election on a manifesto commitment – as Khan has suggested.
However, leading experts think that is unrealistic. A referendum would likely be needed to provide a stable mandate to start negotiations with the EU – something that would be expected to last beyond another general election and a possible change of government.
“It would be difficult, politically, to rejoin without a referendum,” said Professor Catherine Barnard, an expert in EU law at the University of Cambridge. “The EU would want to see that it was the settled will of the UK. Why would the EU commit to serious negotiations if there was chance of a different government being elected and pulling out?”
Dr Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU relations and a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, agreed that it was “politically tricky” without another vote by the British people. It’s not an obligation. But almost all member states joining in recent decades have had a vote to show clear public support.”
Joining the Euro and Schengen
If the UK applied to rejoin, the EU would need to ensure the applicant met the 1993 Copenhagen Criteria – offering basic democratic freedoms, a functioning market economy and the capacity to implement EU laws.
This shouldn’t be an issue, say experts. However, if talks then began, there would be a series of big issues to resolve.
The EU could demand that Britain use the Euro and become part of the Schengen Area, the borderless travel zone that is one element upholding the bloc’s principle of freedom of movement.
The UK previously had opt-out agreements for both the Euro and Schengen – and it is possible the EU would be willing to let Britain rejoin under the same deal, suggested Dr Thomas Sampson, economist and Brexit expert at LSE.
Joining the Euro and Schengen area have been typical requirements for countries looking to join the EU. However, “you could pledge to join the euro one day, with everyone understanding that it probably wouldn’t ever happen,” Sampson said. “That would be one way of getting an opt-out.”
Barnard, though, thinks the UK would be “expected” to sign up to the euro, and that getting an opt-out on Schengen would be “unlikely”.
Anand Menon, director of think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said a Schengen opt-out was possible, but it might be more difficult with the euro.
“There will be people inside the EU saying we should make them join the euro because it will make it harder for [us] to ever leave,” he added.
The European Commission, which would be driving talks from Brussels, would need to approve any deal for the UK to rejoin. A majority of MEPs in the European Parliament would also have to vote in favour.
All the bloc’s member states – who collectively make up the European Council – would also have to agree.
Barnard thinks the negotiations themselves could take “at least four to five years” before a ratification process, which “may then take another few years” – particularly if some members were not enthusiastic.
“You could be looking at a decade,” she added.
If would mean that if talks did not start until after a Labour general election victory in 2029 – or following a referendum in favour of rejoining soon after 2029 – it could be 2040 before Britain was back in the bloc.
Hughes is slightly more optimistic, saying negotiations could be completed in three years, with ratification taking two more.
“If you started the process in 2030, you could be looking at 2035 – why not?” she suggested. But she added: “If there are member states going to be difficult about it, it could take longer.”
Menon said it would be “very unlikely” and “really hard” to complete the process “in one parliamentary term” of five years.
The i Paper understands Burnham’s Government wants a closer relationship with the EU – but plans to maintain the core Labour manifesto “red lines”, which rule out rejoining the EU, its single market, customs union, or freedom of movement.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has also said that restarting the debate about reversing Brexit risks reopening the “political paralysis and uncertainty” the UK underwent when it was leaving.
The chances of rejoining, rated
The i Paper asked the experts to rate, on a scale of one to 10, the likelihood of the UK rejoining the EU. Many suggested there was a lack of sufficiently strong public opinion to justify such a seismic change.
“It doesn’t feel very likely without another a big political shift in favour.”
4/10“I think it’s desirable. It’s certainly possible one day. But it feels unlikely to happen anytime soon without a further political shift in favour of rejoining.”
5/10Renwick – professor of politics at the UCL Constitution Unit – said there would still need to be “quite a dramatic change” in public opinion for any government to feel like there was an “overwhelming support” to push to rejoin.
5/10Menon said rejoining the EU felt “more likely than at any point since we voted to leave” and a desire for an economic boost, and to forge closer ties with traditional allies in a time of uncertaintym had given the push to reverse Brexit some momentum. However, he added that it “still feels very difficult for a Prime Minister to commit to… It would take up a lot of political capital, and the benefits would only be felt 10 years down the line.”