Just hours after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel in a bid to combat rising US fuel prices, Ukrainian strikes set one of Russia’s key oil terminals ablaze.
The Yug Rusi oil-loading terminal in Russia’s Rostov region in southern Russia, which acts as a key export hub and critical to Moscow’s war efforts, was hit in a 50-drone strike.
Ukrainian drones also damaged a railway bridge connected to the 3.5 million tonne capacity plant.
Following a phone call between Trump and Vladimir Putin, the US Department of the Treasury issued a temporary license enabling Russian diesel to be sold to global markets from April 2027, with Trump announcing on Truth Social that Putin would release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, rising to 3 million “in a short period of time”.
The deal marks an easing of the sanctions which limit global trade with Russia following and comes after months of increasing deadly attacks on Ukraine.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky labelled the deal a “happy birthday present for Putin”, later writing in a post on X: “It plays into Russia’s hands – allowing it to kill more, wage war for longer, have even less respect for America, and inflict even greater losses and damage on the world.”
US intelligence sharing
Ukraine’s strikes have focused on the infrastructure that sustains Moscow military operations such as chemical production plants, datacentres and oil. The aim is to halt war efforts and force Russia to divert resources.
The strikes have relied on intelligence on western allies, in particular the United States.
According to the , during a meeting with Ukrainian officials, Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner warned intelligence would be cut off unless Kyiv halted strikes.
One US official also told Axios that in continuing to attack oil refineries, Zelensky is “misreading the room” and “eroding the good will that he has built with Trump over the last six months”.
Hours later, Ukraine launched strikes on on the oil terminal.
Without vital intelligence from the US, Ukraine may be forced to slow down its strikes which have dented the Russian economy.
Trump’s mid term headache
Back home, with the US elections looming and the cost of diesel soaring owing to the Iran war, diesel has become central to Trump’s attempt to win votes.
The latest polling suggests the Republican Party is facing a much broader threat than expected. RealClearPolitics figures published on Monday put Democrats ahead for Senate seats in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine and New Hampshire.
If the Democrats win control of Congress, Trump’s agenda would be greatly constrained for the last two years of his term.
Scott Lucas, professor of American studies at University College Dublin’s Clinton Institute, said Trump had “gotten himself into trouble over the war on Iran”, which has resulted in the doubling of the US diesel price from last year, to set a record high of $6.51 per gallon last month.
“The Republicans are in running into some serious trouble and even some states where they should normally have no problems,” Professor Lucas told The i Paper.
The Iran was has also drained military supplies and the number which might be avaialable for Ukraine.
With Trump desperate to focus on domestic policy, he may use any lever possible to restore public opinion and move off focusing on a peace deal.
This may see fewer fund shipped to Ukraine or tariff threats in order to get allies to pressure Ukraine themselves to stop strikes on Russian energy sites.
Ukraine has pledged only to halt attacks on Russian oil if a reciprocal deal forces Russia to also cease strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
In one of the most unprecedented events in the history of the White House, Trump and Zelensky infamously clashed with the Ukrainian leader.
The clash immediately sparked concerns the US could pull all support for Ukraine and was instead more in favour of Russia.
Relations have since improved with Trump meeting Zelensky in Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral.
Trump afterwards questioned Putin’s desire for peace adding that Russian strikes “makes me think that maybe he [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?'”.
But that improved relations and therefore, overall US support is risked by Ukraine refusing to heed US warnings and indeed, criticisng the diesel deal.
As Trump announced the deal on Friday, his envoys were meeting Ukrainian officials in Miami to discuss finding a way to end the war.
Later denouncing the peace efforts as a “smokescreen”, Zelensky labelled the diesel deal a “weak decision by strong partners.”
As tensions grow between Zelensky and Trump, the US president signifying that he is once again happy to do deals with Putin is dangerous for Ukraine.
Caught in a catch-22, if it carries out further attacks on Russian oil the US may cut ties altogether. If it doesn’t, it leaves its own energy system open to attack.