Americans vote today in the midterm elections of Donald Trump’s second term, with the whole US House and a third of the Senate on the ballot. The polls suggest Democrats are poised for big gains and possibly a takeover of Congress. If they’re right, readers in Britain should prepare for what comes next, because I’ve seen the preview.
A few weeks before the 2018 elections, midway through Trump’s first term, I was summoned to the White House for a meeting that didn’t appear on any public schedule. It was a huddle of top agency heads, and the subject was what to do if Republicans lost the House of Representatives. The polls were pointing to a “blue wave” for the Democrats, and the president’s advisers wanted a plan.
What emerged from that meeting was sensible enough. The goal would be to keep him focused on governing by treating the coming Democratic investigations as background noise. White House lawyers advised that they’d help stonewall where possible, co-operate where unavoidable, but above all minimise the probes as much as possible so the president didn’t get sucked into them. It seemed to me that it was a strategy that depended entirely on Trump’s self-discipline, and anyone who’d spent time around him knew how that would end.
Tenerife footballer dies aged 30 after on-pitch collision
Jesús de Miguel suffered a serious injury after colliding with the opposition goalkeeper in a match on Monday.
What happened?
The 30-year-old CD Tenerife forward was playing in a second-division match against Andorra, when he was struck in the chest by their goalie, Jesús Owono.
De Miguel suffered a cardiac arrest and was rushed to hospital. He died at 8am on Tuesday, according to his club.
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The sequence of events
- Owono’s knee appeared to collide with De Miguel while challenging in the midfield, according to reports.
- It occurred in the final minutes of the game, which at that point was drawn 2-2.
- The forward reportedly lay motionless on the pitch and distressed players called for medical aid. He was treated for more than five minutes on the pitch before being rushed to hospital by ambulance.
What the club has said
There are no words of comfort – there is absolutely nothing that can lessen this overwhelming sadness. We stand with his grieving family, with his loved ones, with all of Tenerife who mourn this cruel loss today.
CD tenerife, in a statement today
When the BBC licence fee could be axed
Ministers are set to announce proposals to reform the £180-a-year charge in a White Paper setting out the terms of a new BBC charter next month.
A few of the options
New charter by 2028
Insiders believe the licence fee could gradually transition to something new over several years.
Streaming tax
The Government is considering extending the charge to streaming services – which could cost £6.25 a month.
Broadband levy
This would cost £11 per month, £4 a month cheaper than the current licence fee.
What else is on the table?
- BBC director-general Matt Brittin has suggested that the BBC could use a German-style funding model.
All households in Germany pay €18.36 per month (£15.70) to fund all public TV and radio broadcasters across different states.
Brittin predicted the scheme would enable the current fee to be reduced by 20 per cent from its current level.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport has looked at whether the BBC should be allowed to take advertising around some of its services.
A final option could be to let the licence fee continue its decline and give the BBC the commercial freedom to raise more funds itself.
A BBC spokesman said: “The current funding model is outdated and needs reform. We will continue to engage with government to secure a new charter.”
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Watch more from The i Paper
How rapid delivery services are ‘fuelling’ alcohol harm
A group of MPs, health leaders and charities have argued the availability of strong and cheap alcohol should be tackled via minimum unit pricing (MUP) in England.
What does the letter say?
- In a letter to Health Secretary Yvette Cooper, 55 experts said that the evidence from Scotland and Wales, where MUP has already been introduced, is “clear and compelling”.
- The letter reads: “Very strong, very cheap alcohol is available everywhere in this country, from our supermarkets to our corner shops and increasingly via online rapid delivery services.”
- They argued the current conditions allow for “escalating alcohol harm”.
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The story in numbers
Between 2019 and 2023, deaths in England increased by a “staggering”
42%
and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels since.
The authors said that alcohol harm is estimated to cost
£27.4bn
a year, with £4.9bn of this “shouldered by the NHS”.
Human and economic costs
Labour MP Cat Smith said: “The human and economic costs are now far too high to ignore.”
Professor Sir Ian Gilmore, chair of the Alcohol Health Alliance, warned England “is in danger of becoming the UK’s alcohol harm outlier”.
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Mahmood announces new immigration rules – what we know
The Home Secretary was forced to back down over proposals to make care workers wait 15 years to qualify for permanent residence.
What you need to know
Shabana Mahmood revised plans to force many low-paid workers, including carers, to wait up to 15 years before being granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
On Monday, she scrapped these plans for care workers. But other professions have not seen the same reversal.
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Why the change of heart?
Mahmood introduced the carve out for care workers after intense backlash from Labour MPs. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner called the retrospective plan “un-British”.
Workers in a set list of public service jobs – such as doctors, nurses and teachers – will also be able to qualify for ILR after five years, even if they do not meet the new salary threshold of £50,271.
Routes to settlement
Under the new system, legal migrants will be able to settle on the following timelines:
- 3 years: additional rate taxpayers earning over £125,141, as well as highly skilled individuals on Global Talent and Innovator Founder visas.
- 5 years: higher rate taxpayers earning over £50,271, as well as skilled public service workers.
- 10 years: the new standard route for everyone else.
- 20 years: anyone who claims certain benefits while in the UK or commits a visa offence.
Watch more from The i Paper
How getting your RDA (recommended dose of art) can transform wellbeing
Visiting a museum or art gallery every month for a “recommended dose of art (RDA)” can transform wellbeing, according to a report.
At least 60 minutes per month inside a gallery or museum could help cut depression, lower stress and improve health, according to the study from the Art Fund charity.
What do the figures tell us?
50%
Evidence in the report shows how a 2019 study on 2,148 adults found a 32 per cent lower risk of depression from going to museums, theatre and cinema every few months.
This rose to a 48 per cent lower risk for people who attended once a month or more, according to the data, taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.
- Daisy Fancourt, professor of psychobiology at University College London (UCL), who wrote the foreword to the report said adopting a monthly habit can make a difference.
The expert view
Regular engagement and meaningful encounters with art are now recognised as an important contributor to our health and wellbeing, and the evidence suggests they should be viewed as health-promoting behaviours, alongside having a balanced diet, regular exercise and spending time outdoors.
Daisy Fancourt
What other studies have also found
Another study published this year in the journal, , found “evidence that authentic art viewing engages biological processes linked to stress reduction and immune modulation”.
A further study found community cultural engagement was associated with a lower risk of developing dementia.
4 min read
Why Ryanair is warning customers to book summer flights now
The boss of Ryanair has warned travellers to book their summer flights sooner rather than later, with plane ticket prices set to “rise dramatically” next year.
The budget airline said it expects short-haul airfares – like those for trips from the UK to Europe – to increase tickets by 20 per cent.
Why are ticket prices soaring?
Fuel prices have increased dramatically due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Ryanair said it expects jet fuel prices to remain “elevated well into 2027”.
Short-haul airfares must therefore rise to reflect “much higher” cost of aviation fuel prices. There will also be fewer seats available as airlines reduce capacity to try to control costs, according to Ryanair.
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But raising fares won’t fully cover spiralling fuel costs. The airline, therefore, is mulling pay freezes, reducing crew numbers and increasing its use of AI to cut costs.
“Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict we expect jet fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027,” said O’Leary.
A closer look at the figures
€2.15bn
The company revealed that profit after tax fell by 15 per cent to €2.15bn (£1.79bn) for the half-year to September, compared with a year earlier.
Revenues increased by 3 per cent to €10.08bn driven by 6 per cent increase in passenger numbers. But the firm saw operating costs lift by 10 per cent.
- Earlier this year, Ryanair said it would cut its traffic target for the year from 216 million passengers to 214 million in an effort to offset increases in unhedged fuel costs.
What you need to know about new Buy Now Pay Later rules
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) lenders – like Klarna and Clearpay – have been officially regulated since July, meaning their rules of use have quietly changed.
Here is what that means for you.
What you need to know
Stricter checks
The new regulation mean users have stricter background checks on their ability to repay loans.
Purchases blocked
If you fail, then your purchase via BNPL will be blocked.
Borrowing figure
There are different affordability checks for different purchases, partially based on how much is borrowed.
Shoppers given stronger rights
Why were the regulations needed?
- BNPL regulations are designed to help prevent people from falling into unaffordable debt.
- Lenders must now direct shoppers who fall into financial difficulty towards debt advice rather than immediately referring them to debt collectors.
- Treasury minister Rachel Blake said the rules deliver promised consumer protections.
Protecting consumers
It is not fair that people using these products have had fewer rights than if they had paid by credit card. These new rules protect the consumer — with proper checks before credit is offered, real rights when things go wrong, and support rather than pressure if someone falls into financial difficulty.
Rachel Blake, economic secretary to the Treasury
How to avoid being blocked
Sara Williams, a former volunteer debt adviser at Citizens Advice who posts tips as Debt Camel on social media, told the BBC just how consumers can avoid being blocked by BNPL lenders.
- Slow down your purchases: If your budget is tight, ensure that what you are buying is essential or see if you can postpone the spending.
- Be more careful about what you buy: Avoid needing a high credit limit to buy lots of clothes in different sizes.
- Cancel subscriptions: Escape the trap of having to use BNPL to make up for the cost of previous payments.
- Talk to debt charities: If you are using BNPL for essentials, speak to charities for help and access to food bank vouchers.
On election night 2018, Democrats flipped 40 House seats, their biggest gain since the Watergate era in the 1970s. I was with the president the following day, and his demeanour validated my expectations about whatever post-election “poise” White House staff were hoping for from the boss. In private, he was a grievance machine, venting about the investigations he knew were coming. Then he marched into the East Room for a press conference and warned that if the new majority used its subpoena power against him, he’d adopt a “war-like posture”.
The press conference lasted an hour and a half. It was like watching a drunk man waving around his steak knife at a dinner party. Staff cringed and averted their eyes as the spectacle lurched from threats to gaffes and back again. Eventually Trump got into a shouting match with reporters. He railed against the political opposition. By that afternoon, he had forced out his attorney general, Jeff Sessions, and by evening the White House had revoked the press pass of CNN’s Jim Acosta, who’d asked tough questions.
A week and a half later, Trump was in arguably worse shape. I was back in the Oval Office to brief him on a bill he was about to sign, creating the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, America’s first dedicated civilian cyber defence agency, which we’d spent months pushing through Congress. He signed it, listened for perhaps a minute as we tried to explain what the bill actually was, and then called the press in. Instead of cybersecurity, he raged about “witch hunts”, the investigations against him and the Russia “hoax”. He couldn’t hold the subject at hand in his head. The paranoia that was always there had become acute, almost to the point of being disabling.
What followed over the next two months is instructive. He pushed out his chief of staff, John Kelly, and his interior secretary, Ryan Zinke. He announced a withdrawal from Syria that nobody had planned for, which prompted the resignation of his defence secretary, Jim Mattis, within a day. He triggered a government shutdown over Christmas that ran for 35 days, then the longest in American history. He asked aides whether he could fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve while markets suffered their worst December since 1931.
Many of us began to sense that the presidency was coming off the rails – and that’s when Trump still had advisers who’d say “no” and an upcoming re-election bid, which kept him at least partly in check.
Neither restraint exists now. Trump cannot run again. The people around him were chosen for loyalty. And Democrats are preparing to investigate far more than his collusion with Russia. They’re signalling far-reaching probes into the Trump family, his pardons of the wealthy elite, the prosecutions of his critics, his taxpayer-funded vanity projects, questionable foreign deals and more. Trump appears rightfully worried about spending the rest of his life under subpoena and watching his legacy taken apart.
So I expect him first to do whatever he can to deny, delay or disrupt a handover in Congress. That includes contesting close counts, pressuring state officials over certification, and pointing his Justice Department to take action in districts he claims were stolen. Much of that may fail. If it does, he’ll get angrier and seek more drastic remedies. I’ve joined a veteran senior Democrat – former House majority leader Dick Gephardt – in warning about the possibility of Trump invoking what are known as presidential “doomsday” powers to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.
In the aftermath of these midterms we could see a resurgence of the ideas his own people have temporarily talked him out of. These range from a wider “counterterrorism” campaign aimed at domestic political opponents, to more direct action to shut out or shut down news outlets he dislikes. What’s more, a president who feels backed into a corner at home often goes searching for a new stage abroad. Ex-Maga figures such as Tucker Carlson have warned that Trump could order a nuclear strike on Iran, a claim the White House dismissed but which tells you plenty about where his former allies believe his head is. Meanwhile, I expect Nato’s future to come back into play and that Trump will abandon Ukraine more abruptly than anyone is prepared for.
I believe he’ll fight hardest for the things that look most trivial: the White House ballroom, the triumphal arch he wants across the Potomac, the reflecting pool he’s had painted American flag blue. They’re easy to dismiss as sideshows, but they’re not. On Monday afternoon, in what his aides had billed as his closing argument for the midterms, he stood in front of the reflecting pool and spoke for more than 25 minutes about it, as well as his new granite helipad on the White House lawn, the soaring arch he says he’s building in honour of himself, the public golf course he’s ripping up, and the troops he’s put on the city’s streets… all before he got round to mentioning the election.
He sees those projects as his legacy. Democrats have made them a priority precisely because they’re the most visible symbols of alleged corruption in this administration – of the misuse of power and taxpayer dollars for self-aggrandisement, in a way we’ve seen from no American president in history – and I expect him to defend those vanity projects to the point of potential lawbreaking and in defiance of court orders. It sounds absurd to think America might face a constitutional crisis over monuments to one man’s ego. Yet there’s a good chance that’s what happens.
In any other administration, a lame-duck president would be thinking about how to secure a few more legislative wins through bipartisan co-operation, and exploring ways to cement other policy victories, including passing the torch to a capable successor. But Trump will rage against the dying of the spotlight. He can’t imagine losing it, so he’ll find any way possible to keep it. And for those exhausted by all of this, I’m afraid it doesn’t stop here.
Once the midterms are done and the investigations are opened, the conversation in Washington will turn to 2028 and a taboo question: Will Trump leave voluntarily? Either way, it will not be quietly.