Iran war is reaching a tipping point – and Trump is being pushed into a corner

President Donald Trump has rejected a new ceasefire proposed by Iran’s foreign minister that would see the crucial shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz reopened within a week.

The proposal put Donald Trump in awkward position: had he accepted it, he would have been seen to backdown over the rising political pressure and support, but rejecting it has made Iran look like the peacemaker while a costly war continues.

Although experts say Trump may resume bombing the country within weeks, Iran may still count its rejected offer as a strategic victory.

“It’s a win-win,” Professor Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told The i Paper. “They get to test the waters and see if President Trump wants an off-ramp, but if he refuses it they are signalling to the international community, particularly the Gulf states, that Iran is genuine about finding a diplomatic solution.”

The Reform MPs who face losing their seats according to new poll

Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are among four Reform UK MPs who would lose their seats if a general election were held tomorrow, fresh polling by YouGov shows.

Falling behind the Tories

Tory defector Danny Kruger and Sarah Pochin – who beat Labour in a 2025 by-election – would also be unseated, according to the leading UK pollster’s first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 11: Reform MP Sarah Pochin speaks at a Reform UK Press Conference in Westminster on August 11, 2025 in London, England. Female Reform UK members including Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire Andrea Jenkyns and Reform MP Sarah Pochin are holding a press conference on crimes that affect women as part of their summer Crime campaign. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Former Conservative MP Danny Kruger, who has defected to Reform UK, speaking during a press conference in Westminster, central London. Picture date: Monday September 15, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire

Although the party’s numbers of MPs would hugely increase, it would have fewer seats than the Tories overall, marking a significant fall when compared to last year’s polling.

How a Labour government could be formed

The poll predicts that Labour would be the biggest party in a hung parliament.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey recently ruled out forming a coalition with Reform or the Tories but stopped short of excluding a coalition with Labour.

However, to form a Parliamentary majority in this scenario, Burnham would also need to work with the SNP or Plaid Cymru.

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Reform expanding its operations

The polling comes as Reform is preparing a huge expansion of its operations around the country, targeting London, the South East, the South West and the East of England.

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 05: Reform UK Party Leader Nigel Farage speaks to Jeremy Kyle on the second day of the Reform Party conference at National Exhibition Centre on September 05, 2026 in Birmingham, England. Reform UK enters its September 2026 annual party conference facing a recent dip in opinion polls, dropping to 22%???23% in national voting intention after peaking at 28% in May. For the first time in over 18 months, the party has slipped behind the Conservatives into third place in select polling, squeezed by a resurgent Labour Party under Prime Minister Andy Burnham and new competition on the right. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)
  • Analysis of Reform job adverts by The i Paper suggests the party is pumping resources into areas where it wants to keep its high-profile Tory defectors.

There’s turmoil in the Liberal Democrats. And MPs are struggling for direction

Stagnant in the polls but still a potential kingmaker, the party’s at a crossroads – even its own members are asking what comes next.

Record number of assaults on Britain’s trains – what to know

Assaults on Britain’s railways have hit record levels, new figures from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) have revealed.

February 8th. 2024. A diesel powered passenger commuter train stops at Hatton Station Warwickshire England UK. It is a bright day and there are no visible people in the picture.

The numbers

The data published on Thursday showed there were 13,464 reported assaults on people who were not railway workers between April 2025 and March 2026, an increase of 36 per cent compared to the previous year.

Avanti Pendolino departing Crewe station as a member of platform staff watch the train leave.
  • 11,289 assaults on rail workers on mainline networks were also recorded, an increase of 12 per cent. This included 6,390 incidents of verbal abuse, 2,487 physical assaults and 2,412 threats.

Working to make railways safer

No-one on the railway should be subjected to violence, threats or abuse. We’re working with industry and our trade union colleagues to address work-related violence and harassment, including through recent guidance which sets out what we expect from rail employers.

Richard Hines, ORR’s chief inspector  railways
London/ UK, Sept. 2017 - Rush hour at Liverpool Street Station/ London

Walkers reveals three new crisp flavours

Three new “gold” flavours of Walkers are now available for crisp lovers. The new snacks mark the brand’s biggest revamp in 80 years.

Leicester, England - October 16, 2014: Close up of a group of different bags of Walker's Crisps.

What are the flavours and how much are they?

Walkers has joined in on the truffle trend with its brand-new Black Truffle crispsCredit: Ocado

The new flavours are black truffle, sea salt and olive oil and Somerset mature cheddar and onion.

Each pack is branded as “Premium Potato Crisps”.

The Sea Salt & Olive Oil crisps add a simpler taste to the new line-upCredit: Ocado
The Somerset Mature Cheddar & Onion crisps offer a premium twist on the classic Cheese & OnionCredit: Ocado

The crisps come in 140g bags and can currently be bought for £2 each.

Where you can buy them

The entire range launched on Ocado officially today, but from October 12, they will be widely available in major UK supermarkets for a cheaper price of £1.50.

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Deal or no deal

Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, told the media at the United Nations in New York this week that Iran had offered – via mediator Qatar – a seven-day ceasefire to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

War broke out on 28 February this year after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, prompting the country to retaliate with strikes on Gulf allies and to close the strait to disrupt global shipping.

The conditions for the ceasefire from Iran’s side were adhering to the terms of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the US and Iran on 18 June.

This 14-point plan includes Iran committing to not having a nuclear weapon, restarting nuclear inspections, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic, in exchange for the ending of strikes on Iran, lifting of economic sanctions and investment in the country.

It fell apart shortly after it was signed and strikes have continued by both sides ever since, with Iran attacking ships that have passed through the strait, whilst the US claims some oil tankers have made it through.

Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, also went on the US network CBS News to support the deal.

“We had previously reached an agreement based on the MOU that was signed in Pakistan… if the United States agrees to proceed in that way, everything will return to the way it was before,” said Pezeshkian.

Professor Scott Lucas, an expert in US foreign policy in the Middle East, told The i Paper that the Iranian president’s TV appearance was a calculated move to humiliate the Americans.

“The Trump folks have been putting out the lines that you can’t have talks because the Iranians are divided,” Lucas explained. “And the Iranians, I think they did it quite effectively this week, are showing, no, we’re not divided.”

Pressure points

Gerges thinks Iran chose a “critical moment” to make this proposal, with economic and political pressure on both countries reaching breaking point.

“The Iranian people are suffering a great deal, no food is coming to the country, no medicine, no cooking oil,” he said.

The war is also unpopular in the US, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving up fuel prices, and a recent poll by CNN showed just 26 per cent of Americans support the President’s handling of the war.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaks to the media during the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations headquarters, Friday, Sept. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

“President Trump is also in a strategic bind, given the inflationary cycle in the United States, the prices of gas and oil and also the midterm elections coming up,” Gerges said.

Any attempts to restart the war before November’s elections would probably harm Republican chances, with many prominent candidates now calling for the war to end in their campaign materials.

‘It would be seen as surrender’

Trump told reporters at the White House on Saturday that he had rejected the deal. He had said in his speech to the UN earlier this week that he expected the war with Iran to be resolved only after the midterms, and has indicated that he could resume a bombing campaign then, according to .

Lucas suspects this leak came from the hardline faction of the White House that wants the war to continue, rather than from the President, noting that it doesn’t “make sense” as an electoral strategy.

“I’m not sure how they’re calculating this, how this helps them in terms of those elections, to say ‘we’re not gonna talk to the Iranians at this point, and then we might bomb them’,” he said.

The rejection of this deal does not mean the end of negotiations, however, Gerges said.

“I think Iran’s seven-day proposal is a strategic move, and we are seeing a new revival of diplomacy,” he said. “Both sides are now engaged in talks, both sides want a way out.”

Lucas agrees, and thinks that talks could resume mediated by Pakistan or Oman, which borders the Strait of Hormuz, in the coming weeks. Iran’s most recent move could give it an advantage in these talks if it appears as the more willing negotiator.

“Everybody knows what the Iranians are doing,” Lucas said. “But the question here is not that you favour one side or the other, but which side’s more reliable right now? And I think the Iranians may come off as more reliable.”

Original source Iran war is reaching a tipping point – and Trump is being pushed into a corner

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