Andy Burnham’s decision to say he wants the UK to rejoin the European Union during his lifetime has caused gnashing of teeth across Westminster, not least within his own Labour Party.

This is the same Prime Minister who previously fully committed to Labour’s red lines that rule out rejoining the customs union, single market or free movement. He fought the by-election in Leave-voting Makerfield that served as a stepping stone into No 10 with a promise not to “re-run” Brexit arguments. From the Cabinet down, Labour MPs are asking: what’s changed?

Ministerial opinion is now split between those who agree Brexit has been an economic disaster that needs to be rethought as soon as possible, and others who are weary of the previous vicious divisions and fear voters’ wrath. Burnham falls squarely into the former camp.

“He thinks the right thing to do is go back to the European Union,” an ally told The i Paper. “Whether that’s doable or not is another question. But I think the prevailing wind is with us so let’s see how far we can push the envelope.”

Burnham sees an economic argument in favour of closer ties. Goldman Sachs estimates closer relations with the EU would “notably reduce the cost of Brexit”. A customs union would increase GDP by about 1 per cent, or about £30bn, the bank estimates. Single market membership could give a boost of between 2 and 5 per cent by easing regulatory barriers. 

But he equally sees it a vote-winner. “There are two issues that do more for us electorally than any other and those are the Middle East and Europe. They are the progressive glue for the diaspora of people who could vote Labour,” the ally added. “So, Andy sticking his neck out makes perfect political strategy sense.”

Burnham may have started a debate but it’s not currently clear exactly how close he wants to get to the bloc and on what time frame.

On Monday, the Prime Minister said he would like to see Britain rejoin the EU “in my lifetime”, something walked back later by Downing Street as a “personal view” rather than a Government position.

“We got a harder Brexit than was proposed in the referendum campaign,” Burnham told ITV’s , with the clips soon playing out across all channels. “However, I’m not proposing rejoining in this Parliament.”

He added however: “I am not going to move ahead of the public. I am not going to dictate in terms of my own opinions here, you have to make sure that the British public are the bosses.”

Hours later, Burnham told journalists “no” when asked if he would allow the UK to join the EU freedom of movement scheme without a referendum. Before the confusion was cleared up, Labour MPs expressed astonishment that the Prime Minister had ventured so far.

“I had to rewind the radio to check what he’d said. Is he just shooting shit?” one Labour MP questioned. Others immediately thought Burnham was setting out a manifesto for an election as early as next year.  “When I heard what he said on Europe, I thought this makes an election in May much more likely,” a second Labour MP added.

However, according to Government sources involved in discussions, this is the wrong way to look at the issue.

“You can’t just dump a commitment to rejoin into a manifesto a month before an election, you have got to make the argument,” one explained. Burnham has repeatedly said on the record, including on Monday, that there will not be an early election. Labour insiders frequently talk up May 2028 as the most likely date.

The deal that is already (almost) in the bag

Whatever the timing of the election, the Prime Minister’s team is eyeing up the best time to make the case for rejoining more forcefully, with options including a speech shortly after the November 20 Brussels summit at which the two sides hope to finalise a Brexit reset deal.

Burnham is due to meet EU chiefs, including Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president. The two sides are set to announce deals on food and drink standards, as well as movement on the Made in Europe scheme to favour European manufacturers, which would affect UK businesses, especially the automotive industry.

Burnham’s Labour conference speech in which he said Brexit had done “more harm than good” and subsequent overtures to the EU have been described by European diplomats to The i Paper variously as “a love letter,” “courageous,” a “bunch of flowers” and “divorcees getting back together”.

Across continental capitals there is a sense of rewarding good behaviour from previously recalcitrant, sulky Brits. “We are now very keen to make the summit a success,” one European diplomat said.

However, the summit may reach a conclusion with one key decision pushed into the long grass. France and Germany signalled they are prepared to drop their demands for EU students to pay the same as British student – for now.

The proposed compromise would allow negotiators to conclude the main elements of a three-part Brexit reset package ahead of the summit, while giving Britain another six months to reach an agreement on tuition fees. However, there are concerns in London this mean the UK gives up any current leverage.

“I’m not sure it’s in our interest to defer it. I can see why they’re doing it and they claim they’re playing nice, but they can still zing us later,” one British diplomatic source said. Whatever the outcome, the summit is likely to be declared a triumph by both sides.

Discussions have already started on how the Prime Minister could capitalise on a successful meeting and when to make a statement of his intent.

“There are all sorts of moments, but it is expected to be a ‘this is a this is a good deal. Now we shift to the longer-term issues’,” a Government source said. Official-level talks are already underway for longer-term talks with the bloc.

The speech will dovetail with the publication of Burnham’s 10-year-plan in late November or early December.

According to sources involved in its preparation the document has a ranking of time frames alongside things Burnham wants to do.

“The 10-year plan is literally a sequencing about what you can do when: water nationalisation – whatever you want to do with it – is not the same as the short-term breathing space measures being set out in the Budget. The 10-year plan is cascading these things,” one source said.

What ends up in Burnham’s EU intervention will need to take in to account the longer-term economic climate “and frankly whether our key neighbours end up run by the far right”, as another source involved in the planning told The i Paper.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has grown into the single largest party in the French parliament, and she may win the presidential election next spring. The Alternative for Germany, climbing in support, wants to break up the bloc into a loose federation of “sovereign nations”.

The EU will want a binding referendum

Electoral instability on the continent will not be the only consideration if Burnham commits to rejoining the EU.

Putting his party’s commitment in Labour’s next manifesto would not be sufficient to convince the EU to negotiate in good faith. According to a former Labour cabinet minister, European negotiators would need a binding referendum.

“Putting rejoin in a manifesto will never work, because it would not give you the entrenchment the EU needs. They would just drag their heels in case Reform or the Tories got into power in five years. They would think, ‘We’re not playing hokey-cokey like this anymore’,” the former minister said.

At home, Burnham is capitalising on both changing voter sentiment and demographics. Pollster Peter Kellner estimates around 3.8 million leave voters have died since the referendum 10 years ago, compared with 2.1 million remain voters. This means that 14 million survivors voted Remain, while 13.6 million voted Leave: a pro-EU majority of 400,000.

In addition, of course, millions of new voters aged eight to 17 in 2016 would now be eligible to vote.

And the same is true for Burnham’s own seat of Makerfield, Greater Manchester. While a decade ago 65 per cent of constituents voted to leave, it now almost doesn’t matter, according to Robert Ford, professor of politics at Manchester University and co-author of the British Election Study 2024.  

‘Never forget the grim reaper‘

“Never forget the grim reaper, the older crowd who voted to leave are dying out,” Ford told The i Paper. “Then there are people who have changed their minds. Even if two-thirds of Makerfield voters chose ‘Leave’ 10 years ago, they don’t necessarily think the same today. What’s more, when ‘Leave’ voters came over to Labour in 2024 from other parties, they changed their minds about whether Brexit had been a success too. Combine these patterns and those seats labelled as “Red Wall” are not majority leave anymore.”

He added: “In Makerfield most of the remaining ‘Leave’ vote there is out of reach to Burnham, he’s simply not going to get them especially if that vote stays at home or is split between other parties. It is a similar pattern in many Labour-held and formerly Leave voting seats – most of the local electorate who would ever consider a Labour vote is Remain/Rejoin.”

A Government source said the shifting polls had helped Burnham be so bold where others feared to tread.

“Electorally, we’re not losing votes to Reform, we are losing the Greens, Lib Dems, Nats, and stay-at-homes. And just like Israel, Europe has a property to it, which is the more you stick your neck out with it, the more you get Lib Dems, Nats, and Greens in particular to either hold their nose and vote for you, or come back and support you,” the source said.

“Polling has got a door open for us in a way. Even two years ago, we couldn’t have done this. To be fair to [Sir] Keir [Starmer], I think he looked at the polling and thought, ‘I can push a bit, but only so far’. And it has changed, partly because of the demographics,” the source added.

Labour sources also believe Russia’s aggression and Donald Trump’s insistence Europe pays more for its own defence has only improved the case for closer ties. “I think the case for Europe is now quite different to a Brexit debate. The Remain argument in the Brexit debate was all about economics; now it’s about security,” one said.

Cabinet splits

By no means does the Prime Minister have universal support, including from his Cabinet. “Andy is at the height of his power and influence. If not now, then when? That doesn’t mean everyone agrees with him,” a Cabinet minister said. Around 15 of 28 ministers attending Cabinet are understood to support a return to the bloc, against 13 who are either undecided or opposed, according to people familiar with their views.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, concerned about the impact of free movement on immigration numbers, told MPs on Monday: “The Prime Minister has been discussing having an open debate; that is not the same as settled policy.”

Some are concerned the bloc could make unreasonable financial demands of the UK as a price for rejoining. “Where I think the EU would play very hard ball is on the contribution, and there’ll be sections of the EU, i.e. the French, who will say not only should we pay an excessive amount, but we ought to pay some compensation for the way we’ve messed them about over however many years,” a former cabinet minister warned.

The EU may also want to offset the costs of poorer Balkan states who want to join the bloc by hiking the cost to a richer nation such as the UK.  

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Labour MP Melanie Onn warned that reopening the debate on the red lines Labour set for ties to the bloc could damage trust with voters. “Political trust is hard won and easily lost,” she wrote in an opinion piece on the Politics.co.uk website. “The perception that promises made at elections can subsequently be revisited by a political establishment removed from the realities of working communities has left lasting scars.”

And Burnham will face a stiff fight from opponents as well as members of his own party. Nigel Farage said Burnham has “no mandate” to reopen arguments on Brexit. The Reform UK leader told BBC Radio 4’s programme: “Five months ago, Andy Burnham says … I’m not going to reopen these arguments. Two-and-a-half years ago, a Labour government got a massive majority in Parliament saying we will not be re-entering the single market, the customs union, or opening up a debate on the free movement of people. What I am saying is this: this Prime Minister has no mandate, and to hear that his officials are negotiating in Brussels already is really very, very poor indeed.”

The Tories have most to lose, Labour believes

In the meantime, Burnham shows no sign of being worried. His allies believe Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have more to lose from the debate than Labour, potentially surrendering seats to pro-European Liberal Democrats across the country.

“Andy was really struck when she stood up in his first Commons outing after the recess and his conference speech and instead of saying ‘why are you ripping up a democratic referendum’ she went in on the Straits of Hormuz,” an ally said. “The Tories are on the ropes on this.”

“Outside of a few strange Labour and Lib Dem membership clubs, nobody in this country wants to re-run the Brexit wars of 2016-2019. The reason Kemi didn’t go on the offensive is because she doesn’t want to get dragged into a debate the country got thoroughly bored of seven years ago,” an ally of Badenoch said. “While Burnham wants to keep dragging Britain back to some half-imagined past, Kemi will keep talking about a lower tax, more jobs, pro-business future.”

Professor Robert Ford said there is danger in being overly frightened of a debate on rejoining. “Brexit is like a pufferfish in a David Attenborough nature documentary.  It puffs itself up to appear more frightening than it is. The Leave-supporting media the inflation mechanism: any mention of it and they freak out and shout betrayal. But Labour MPs and Cabinet ministers who take the pufferfish seriously are in danger of giving it more credibility than it deserves,” he said.