The chance of Labour dropping the state pension triple lock from its next manifesto has increased because trade unions and influential Labour figures are softening their opposition to scrapping it, The i Paper can reveal.
A senior union source said the mechanism was “completely unsustainable” in the long term and that abolishing it could be used to help fund Andy Burnham’s vision for free social care.
The Prime Minister has pledged to put free-at-point-of-use social care into the party’s next general election manifesto, along with a plan to fund the policy, which could cost up to £18.5bn a year.
Avanti West Coast trains to be nationalised
The Transport Secretary said the operator has been underperforming “for years” as it becomes the latest service to be brought back into public ownership.
Andy Burnham said the service had failed people “time and time again” with cancellations and overcrowding.
What you need to know
- Avanti West Coast train services will be nationalised from March 2027, when its contract ends.
- Its London hub is Euston station, with services running to Wales, Manchester, Liverpool, Blackpool and Scotland.
- All train services under Department for Transport contracts, including Avanti, are in the process of being transferred to public ownership.
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Reactions from the sector
“For years, we’ve heard stories of Avanti underperforming, with passengers left paying the price. Enough is enough,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.
Conversely, Andy Mellors, managing director at Avanti West Coast, said: “We’re proud of what we’ve achieved over the last six years – from refurbishing our Pendolino fleet and introducing our new Evero trains to running more services than ever before.”
The results for customers
- Labour claims nationalisation will mean fewer delays and cancellations.
- This is thanks to a £10m investment in power and signalling maintenance, faster and more reliable services, upgraded facilities at Euston, and more stable internet connection on board trains.
Several rail firms around the country are already publicly owned, including Great Anglia and South Western Railway.
Chess prodigy, 11, becomes youngest woman grandmaster
A London schoolgirl has made history while representing England at the 46th Chess Olympiad in Uzbekistan.
Former chancellor, Rachel Reeves, called the young player “a chess superstar”.
Play by play account
Bodhana Sivanandan scored eight points across 11 games, qualifying for the title of woman grandmaster.
The International Chess Federation confirmed this performance made her the youngest person to gain the lifelong title.
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What makes a champion?
Neither of Sivanandan’s parents are good at chess. She taught herself to play during lockdown using YouTube tutorials.
She entered her first tournament at Harrow Chess Club in 2021.
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After she won the British Women’s Championship earlier this year, she said: “I want to become a [full] grandmaster as soon as possible.”
- She now has two of the three “norms” required to become an International Master, the next rank up on the path to becoming a grandmaster.
Women and child die attempting to cross Channel
A 10-year-old child and two women in their 30s have died just off the coast of France, near Calais.
Andy Burnham’s spokesman said the tragedy was a “stark reminder of the dangers posed by criminal gangs”.
What you need to know
- French authorities rescued 102 people from a dinghy which had left Bleriot Plage.
- At least 17 people, including children, have now died attempting to cross the Channel this year.
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The timeline of events
What happened this morning and when:
- The dinghy pushed off from Bleriot Plage, near Calais, on Monday morning.
- French maritime police received a distress call after the boat got into trouble in the water.
- A rescue ship and Navy helicopter were sent to the scene with a medical team.
- The emergency responders were unable to save the child and two women.
- French officials said the deaths were likely due to crushing rather than drowning, due to overcrowding on the boat.
The official response
The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said: “We’re deeply saddened to hear about the deaths in France today.
“It is a stark reminder of the dangers posed by the criminal gangs who exploit vulnerable people for profit, and we will continue to work relentlessly.”
An investigation has been opened into the incident.
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What we know so far about RAF Fairford ‘bomb plot’
Five men were arrested on terror charges and villagers evacuated from their homes after a major incident was declared near the RAF Fairford airbase used by the US Air Force.
Aerial footage showed a bomb disposal robot inspecting three white vans in the area.
What are they accused of?
- The men were initially arrested on suspicion of Explosives Act offences.
- Police were called out to three suspicious vans heading towards the airbase in Gloucestershire at 12.45am on Sunday.
- The five men were later further arrested on suspicion of the preparation of a terrorist act, with counter-terrorism policing officers now leading the investigation.
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How were they caught?
A local farmer spotted the seemingly abandoned white vans blocking a quiet country road a few hundred metres from RAF Fairford when driving home from a party.
The farmer told she saw a group of “young” men, some wearing “masks or balaclavas”, running into the trees and across fields towards the airbase. She called the police and warned neighbours to lock their doors.
RAF Fairford’s links to Iran war
A senior Western intelligence source told The i Paper the assumption is that those involved in this incident are likely to be proxies for a hostile state. Iran is understood to be the leading suspect.
- The US Air Force has used RAF Fairford to carry out bombing missions against Iran in a bid to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- In July, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) warned against allowing US bombers to fly from British bases, saying such sites would be legitimate targets.
- A UK Government spokesperson said at the time: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad.”
- Inquiries have yet to rule out Russia or even domestic activity.
What did the police say?
I can’t go into details, but I can give reassurance that we believe the matter to be contained and as a set of agencies working together across Gloucestershire, we are gathering and responding to local intelligence all the time.
Gloucestershire Police temporary Chief Constable, Maggie Blyth.
How puzzles may ‘reduce age-related cognitive decline’
Researchers found memory, logic and reasoning puzzles with advice on diet and exercise, can help improve thinking and memory problems.
How the study works
- The study examined people aged 60-85 with low cognitive scores.
- They were split into three groups. One group was given evidence-based advice on diet.
- The second used a website called Active Brains, which provides cognitive exercises in the form of puzzles.
- The third group were directed to the same website and also given “brief support” with a nurse.
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The study’s findings
- After 12 months, all groups showed improvement in their cognitive scores and a significant proportion no longer met the criteria for age-related cognitive decline.
- 28 per cent of people who were given simple lifestyle advice were no longer deemed to have cognitive decline.
- This increased to 33 per cent of those directed to the website and 32 per cent of those directed to the website and given additional support.
- Among those directed to the website and given additional support, there was an 18 per cent reduction in severe cognitive impairment compared to those who were just given advice, researchers found.
Hear from the researchers
Professor Paul Little, co-lead of the study, said: “These are really exciting findings that people can easily take on board.
“Simple messages and simple things that people can do really make a difference – and the NHS does not need to spend a lot of money.”
He added the research team was “surprised” by the cognitive improvement seen among people just given “brief advice”.
What do the experts say?
Experts said the study was “encouraging”, but added some caveats.
Dr Richard Oakley from the Alzheimer’s Society said: “People should not take this study to mean that doing puzzles can reverse dementia or improve symptoms for everyone living with memory problems.”
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Sycamore Gap stump shows new shoots three years after felling
Three years after it was illegally felled, photos show a thick ring of new shoots around the stump of the sycamore tree made famous by 1991’s Robin Hood Prince of Thieves.
What happened to it?
The tree, which was planted in the late 1800s in Northumberland, was illegally felled in September 2023 by Daniel Graham and Adam Carruthers, causing national outcry.
In 2025, the pair were jailed for four years and three months for criminal damage for cutting down the iconic tree with a chainsaw.
Slow recovery starts to show
Now, the National Trust, which operates the site at Hadrian’s Wall, has revealed the stump has shown new growth.
Since it was felled, the remaining stump has been protected by a barrier, allowing nature to take its course and new green shoots to spring up.
Promising signs
These flourishing shoots are really encouraging and show that the special measures we’ve taken, including reducing soil compaction around the roots and limiting human disturbance, are paying off.
Andrew Poad, general manager for the National Trust at Hadrian’s Wall
How triple lock could be axed to pay for national care service
Andy Burnham’s plan to put free social care in Labour’s next general election manifesto could be part of a grand bargain to drop the state pension triple lock, Labour MPs believe.
What you need to know
- A Labour MP told The i Paper that introducing the NHS-style care service would be a “politically smart” way to “sugar the pill” of finally scrapping the lock
- On Sunday, the PM kicked off Labour’s conference in Liverpool by vowing to put forward a plan to voters at the next election in which “everyone contributes, everyone is covered” for social care.
- In private, many MPs across the political spectrum confide that the lock is fundamentally unsustainable over the long term.
Figures chime in
The think-tank said an Australian-style system would deliver savings of about £650m by 2030.
The ex-cabinet minister said getting rid of the triple lock is “an option that the Government should consider”.
The junior minister suggested tax rises would be needed to fund the policy, saying it “isn’t going to be cheap”.
A word of warning
A backbencher cautioned that Burnham would have to tread carefully. “We will need to try and secure a cross-party consensus on adult social care,” they said.
Back in 2017, Theresa May proposed replacing the triple lock with a “double lock”. The policy was dubbed a “dementia tax” and the Tories subsequently lost their majority.
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Labour insiders believe that getting rid of the triple lock could be a quid pro quo for Burnham’s care blueprint.
The triple lock ensures that the state pension rises each year in line with the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent.
The level of savings from getting rid of it would depend on what it is replaced with. However, scrapping the triple lock would not cover the full cost of free social care and would likely have to be paired with a tax increase.
On Monday, Chancellor John Healey refused to confirm that committing to the triple lock would be in the next Labour manifesto, telling the BBC: “The manifesto will be the manifesto at the time”.
In the past, Labour’s trade union allies have been stalwart defenders of the lock, but there are signs that outright union opposition to scrapping it is now melting away.
One senior union source told The i Paper: “In the long term it’s completely unsustainable.”
The source acknowledged the “risk” of going into an election with a promise to scrap lock, but said such a move could prove successful if the savings were explicitly earmarked to pay for social care.
Not all union leaders are convinced. Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, told The i Paper that it “would be an absolute disaster zone” akin to Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to cut winter fuel payments.
“We need to look at other ways to pay for some of these things that isn’t constantly going back to workers, the working class, everyday people, and of course in this instance, pensioners,” she said.
Some Labour grandees, such as former home secretary Lord Blunkett and Baroness Harman, the former deputy Labour leader, have already called for the lock to be abolished.
On Monday, former party leader Neil Kinnock – whom Burnham has identified as a mentor – suggested that it could be changed.
Asked whether Burnham should drop it to help pay for free social care, Lord Kinnock told The i Paper: “I am not sure of the options but I am certain that if there is a change it will have to provide for alternatives that give support to people who are still on relatively low retirement incomes. And I think it will.”
Dale Vince, the green tycoon who is a major Labour donor, told The i Paper that the lock had “done its job” and should be dispensed with.
He argued that it had pulled pensioners out of poverty “but now it’s an imbalance in our society”, adding: “There are other groups of people that are struggling much more relative to pensioners, and the triple lock is now over the top.”
Vince, who has donated millions to the Labour Party, suggested an inflation-linked mechanism could replace the current triple guarantee.
At a fringe event in Liverpool, pensions minister Torsten Bell told The i Paper that Labour would abide by its manifesto commitment to maintain the lock for the whole of this Parliament. “We made a manifesto commitment, we’re going to stick to it,” he said.
Bell did however engage in discussion about how the mechanism could be reformed.
He cautioned against replacing the triple lock with a single earnings link. “Some of the proposals I see of people saying ‘just scrap the triple lock’ don’t learn enough from the last 15 years, which is you have these phases where inflation goes through the roof,” he said.
“I don’t basically support proposals which just say ‘scrap the triple lock’ and go to an earnings uprating.”
It would be possible to reform the lock in a way which adjusted for periods of high inflation. The Resolution Foundation – a think-tank which Bell used to run – has proposed moving to an Australian-style system where pensions track earnings growth but are protected from temporary price shocks.
While Burnham has said he wants to work with other parties on building a cross-party consensus on social care, any attempt to include reforming the triple lock in this process may be destined to fall flat.
A Liberal Democrat source said that party leader Sir Ed Davey “is never going to touch it” because it would jeopardise Lib Dem support in former Conservative seats in the south of England.
“Think about the ‘Blue Wall’, think about all those pensioners, there’s just no way,” they added.
However, the source said that the triple lock was a “batshit” policy.