Labour to win record number of MPs as Tories and Greens get zero in 90% of London - shock poll


The survey by Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now showed Labour getting a record 59 or 60 seats out of 75 in the capital after a bounce in support under Andy Burnham’s premiership turned into a more sustained surge.
The Conservatives may lose two, including possibly Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp in Croydon South, and fail to regain a series of seats in Inner London, according to the new analysis which estimated the impact of tactical voting.
Other recent polls suggested they could win back Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Kensington and Bayswater, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Zack Polanski’s Green Party, which just months ago was predicted in one poll to be on course to win 21 seats in the city, would end up with none.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would gain one, Bexleyheath and Crayford from Labour, and only by 28% to 26% so this is far from a certainty.
It would hold onto Romford where Andrew Rosindell MP defected from the Conservatives (technically a Tory loss from the 2024 general election).
The Liberal Democrats would hold six constituencies in south west London.
Labour, which has a record 59 MPs in London, could match this and may beat Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North, the poll suggested by 36% to 18%, which would take it to 60 MPs.


It could also oust Mr Philp in Croydon South, but by 30% to 28% so this outcome is also very close to call.
MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results.
It does not take into account the prominence or popularity of individual candidates.
The results, though, would mean there would be no Conservative or Green MP in Inner London or 90% of constituencies in the capital.
Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, told The Standard: “In political terms, Andy Burnham has eaten Zack Polankski's muesli, as underlined by the recent Labour win in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.”

He added that the Prime Minister, who has rejected claims that he is anti-London, is doing well at unifying Left-of-centre votes.
“He is taking votes from the Liberal Democrats and Greens to re-establish Labour as the dominant political force in London,” he said.
“This contrasts with the dire position of the party earlier in the year under Sir Keir Starmer.”
The poll put Labour on 34% in London, up nine percentage points since July, the Greens down three to 18%, Tories down two to 16%, Reform unchanged on 13%, Lib Dems down two to 9%, Restore up one to 7%, and independents/minor parties down two to 3%.
Mr Baxter added: ”Right-of-centre parties continue to be racked by their divisions.
“The Conservatives may even lose seats compared with their poor showing at the last general election."

Nationally, the survey put Labour on 353, a Commons majority of 56, Conservatives 90, Reform 81, Lib Dems 70, SNP 28, Greens four and Restore one.
Kevin Craig, chief executive of PR firm PLMR which commissioned the poll, said: “Andy Burnham’s leadership is resonating with voters.
“He speaks in plain English and explains what the Government is doing simply and directly.
* Fieldwork for the 6,699 people poll was conducted by Find Out Now from 25 September to 2 October, a period covering Labour’s conference which may have slightly boosted its ratings.
