As he heads to the Labour Party Conference Andy Burnham has nothing to fear, and not just because Liverpool amounts to a piece of home turf in his complicated Northern identity.
The clue is in the name: this is a gathering. Practically the whole party dipped their hands in the blood of Sir Keir Starmer’s political assassination and Burnham’s coronation. Now that Burnham has avoided a Truss-like explosion on the launchpad, Labour has nowhere else to turn. He will be the Prime Minister and leader for the duration. He will be their commander in the next general election, which by any rational Labour calculation should be a long way off given the closeness in polls between Labour, Reform and the Conservatives.
Burnham should only go early if he believes things can only get worse, and judging by this year’s conference slogan he doesn’t think so. Labour does indeed have cause to “Hope Again”. In opinion polls Labour is consistently ahead for the first time since 2024, albeit narrowly. Burnham is the most popular party leader and considered the most prime ministerial.
What about the country as a whole? The majority seem to be at ease with this new Prime Minister. He is likeable and an able and articulate communicator, who has fitted back comfortably into the suits and ties of office, as well as his trademark leisurewear.
But beyond the good vibes, Burnham not changed much. As yet, he has outlined no better answers to the multiple clear and present dangers threatening the nation, from the cost of living, to defence spending, to hybrid war, to Neets, to AI, to migration, to the bond markets, to international alliances. Threats to which Burnham admits the UK is “that little bit more exposed” than other countries.
Last week, documents leaked to Sky News confirmed that Burnham’s is a continuity government; many of his actions were planned in No 10 several months ago to be used by Starmer. Burnham has chosen to respect the 2024 “Change” manifesto including the red lines on taxation, the triple lock and relations with the European Union.
Next Tuesday, when Burnham delivers his leader’s speech, will be his 72nd day in office. His Chancellor’s Budget on 28 October will fall conveniently on the 100th day. Until now, Burnham has not used his hard-won honeymoon for a Franklin D Roosevelt-style “first 100 days” packed with quick action and explanation of what must be done. Instead, he has done nothing to shake the “soft left” complacency of his MPs, telling them what they want to hear: that national security “can’t come at the expense of social security” and that sanctions should target Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
Burnham is a savvy operator in the old media as much as the new. Shrewdly, for his major eve-of-conference profile, he has gone back to the magazine, in whose pages exactly a year ago he launched his “Manchesterist” insurrection against “in-hock-to-the-markets” Starmer. In it, he says that he gets it: “This has to be the point where the country says, ‘Right we can’t carry on like this, we need to set a new clear direction, a new clear path.’” The country is unlikely to get the message unless its leader says it first.
The conference and the Budget are big opportunities – the question is whether the Prime Minister and team have it in them to grasp their chances before their torch gutters. There is talk of bringing forward publication of Burnham’s much-vaunted, 10-year plan. Putting off strategic decisions until the spending review next year will be too late.
The Prime Minister’s thoughtful speech to the United Nations this week hinted that there could be more to the man than the blokeish, professional Northern people-pleaser.
No 10 North and a beer at the football may be indulgences on his part, but he is right that there are social and geographical imbalances in this country which threaten its harmonious existence in this age of populist politics.
There is a logic too in “investment in prevention”, incentivising paths into training, education and apprenticeships rather than leaving them out of work and reliant on taxpayer support. The trouble is that getting there requires finding money that the Government has not got, and without blocking the academic ladders which Burnham and his Cabinet colleagues climbed up themselves. For all his talk of the North, Burnham came south to Cambridge and south again to get into politics.
Alan Milburn, who will shortly publish his final recommendations on Neets, says “tough love” will be required. But is Burnham tough enough to take his party on?
This is the question that Labour colleagues who knew Burnham in his previous career at Westminster as a special advisor, MP and minister are asking themselves. Last time round, one veteran opined sadly that Andy turned out to be “an empty vessel”.
The most successful British prime ministers of modern times, Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, were those prepared to challenge their own parties with some home truths. Next week, the nation will find out whether Burnham has got what it takes to start that hard work.