If blokes spend a surprising amount of time thinking about the Roman Empire, how often does anyone think about the Liberal Democrats?
At a time when Westminster drama can loom large over daily life, with fierce arguments over the future of the UK, the truth appears to be… not much.
Of course, that doesn’t apply to the people at the party conference over the past few days.
But the attendees in Brighton weren’t just thinking lots about the Lib Dems – they were thinking lots about the reasons why nobody else thinks about the Lib Dems.
While Labour, Reform and the Green Party have experienced dramatic peaks and troughs in the opinion polls since the 2024 election, the UK’s traditional ‘third option’ has puttered in the background, never really straying beyond the mid to low teens.
Why haven’t the Lib Dems been able to capitalise on the unprecedented splintering of British politics, and collect support from centrists who are disappointed in the two main parties?
Many of the conference-goers appear to have arrived at the same answer: Sir Ed Davey.
What is holding the Lib Dems back?
Since the departure of Sir Keir Starmer two months ago, Davey is comfortably the longest-serving of the UK’s main party leaders. And yet, when pollster More in Common asked people to describe the Liberal Democrats in a word or two, the most common answer was ‘don’t know’.
One would-be parliamentary candidate in a Labour area told me that if anyone in the party says they’re happy with its current direction, they’re lying.
They summed up the current Lib Dem approach as ‘vanilla’ and ‘blancmange-y’ – an effort to appeal to as many voters as possible, so they can present themselves as the most acceptable alternative for sensible people who don’t like their incumbent.
And in panel after panel at the conference, it became apparent that this is a deliberate strategy. Party leaders are proud of research that suggests they’re the top ‘second choice’ for Labour, Green and Tory voters.
In the brave new world of UK politics, where the range of viable parties means candidates can win a seat with 30% of the vote or less, the Lib Dems reckon that fact could allow them to expand their record-breaking 72-seat haul from 2024.
The logic goes that this will win them enough seats to go into coalition with Labour (Davey has effectively ruled out working with the Tories again), allowing them to secure priorities such as voting reform and EU single market access.
One MP also made the point to me that the last time the Lib Dems tried out a big audacious message – cancelling Brexit, in the 2019 general election – they secured just 11 seats and then-leader Jo Swinson lost hers.
However, it also puts party activists in a tricky position. The prospective candidate wondered what they’re supposed to say on the doorstep to convince Labour voters to go Lib Dem instead.
That struggle has become more pronounced since Andy Burnham became prime minister with a platform including reforming social care, getting closer to Europe and fixing the water industry – in other words, the Lib Dems’ three core issues.
Should Ed Davey get the boot?
Frustration from the many party members who want a bolder message has developed into questions over whether Davey is the right person to lead.
That debate has played out in the many energetic afterparties and evening social events that form the backbone of this particular party’s conference.
It told me a lot when one pro-Davey MP launched into a full-throated defence of his leadership after I asked a broad question about the current direction of the party.
‘He got us our best ever result,’ the MP said, referring to the 2024 election, ‘and he deserves to lead the party into the next election.’
However, even they conceded he is better on a personal, one-to-one level than he is capturing national attention.
Davey himself certainly seemed phlegmatic when I asked him why voters still don’t appear to know exactly what the Lib Dems are all about.
He told me: ‘When they come to vote they do. We got our best result for 100 years at the last general election, some great Liberal Democrat MPs.
‘And of course, in the council elections, we’ve had eight years of successive gains – that’s never happened before. Councillors up and down the country.’
Laughing, he added: ‘I think that’s what really counts, isn’t it?’
I doubt many people at the Brighton Centre would disagree. The only minor sticking point is what happens next.
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