Russia’s military strategy has hit a wall. Battlefield tactics that worked in 2024, such as infantry infiltration and drone interdiction, are no longer delivering the same gains. Moscow’s offensive this summer has seen slower advances at the cost of around 30,000 casualties per month. Even another round of mobilisation appears unlikely to turn the tide.  

With little hope of a decisive breakthrough at the front, both sides have settled into long-range strike campaigns intended to undermine their opponent’s ability to keep fighting. 

Ukraine has maintained near-daily attacks on Russian oil refineries, pumping stations, and exports – targeting the lifeblood of Moscow’s war economy. There is no major oil refinery in the European part of Russia that has not been attacked over the past year.

The Ukrainian military is now targeting the most vulnerable parts of refineries used for oil processing, which are difficult to repair. Their strategic attacks now include jet-powered drones that pose new challenges to air defences. By some estimates, the campaign has knocked out a third of Russia’s oil processing capacity.

Kyiv has raised the stakes in recent weeks with dozens of attacks on warehouses of Russia’s largest e-commerce company, Wildberries, the country’s equivalent of Amazon. The logic is to aggravate economic problems and bring the war closer to ordinary Russians – although the downside is a risk this could aid the Kremlin’s plans for mobilisation. 

However, Ukraine is facing a constraint: long-range firepower. Kyiv cannot launch large-scale combined strikes farther than a range of 500km (311 miles), as Russia can with its ballistic and cruise missiles. While outside observers have been fascinated by the scale and intensity of Kyiv’s strategic strikes, they forget that most drones carry a warhead of a mere 50-75kg of explosives – often enough to damage but not destroy enemy targets. Range can only be increased at the expense of warhead power.

This limitation has given Russia time to deal with the attacks while maintaining its own assaults. In order to bring real pressure on the Kremlin to end the war, Ukraine needs more powerful weapons that can inflict greater damage.

There are ongoing efforts by domestic defence companies to produce drones that can fly further without decreasing their explosive power through additional fuel tanks. However, Ukraine needs ballistic and cruise missiles in major quantities to deliver truly devastating combined salvoes.

Ukrainian production initiatives are either small-scale, such as the FP-5 Flamingo or Neptune cruise missiles, or at an early stage of development, such as the Sapsan or FP-9 ballistic missile projects.

Ukraine has also sought the US Tomahawk land attack cruise missile, with a range of 1,000 miles and a payload in excess of 300kg. Donald Trump signalled willingness to supply them last year, but backtracked after intensive lobbying from the Kremlin. Stocks have since been depleted by the Iran war.

Long-range firepower would give Ukraine the opportunity to raise pressure on the Kremlin by targeting more sensitive sites within Russia. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that there are more than 500 enterprises playing a part in Russia’s military industrial complex that are legitimate targets to be destroyed. Hundreds of oil processing and export sites could be taken out with more powerful long-range warheads.

Ukraine has found new targets with a middle-range strike campaign against Russian shadow-fleet cargo ships in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, carrying fuel and grain. Over the past six weeks, more than 200 ships have been targeted, with the aim of isolating Crimea and depriving Russia of export revenue.

That has led to an intensification of the Kremlin’s own campaign of air strikes. While Russia has been unable to attack dynamic targets such as shipping, it is striking static infrastructure such as fuel stations in Ukraine’s frontline regions, and pulverising nearby urban areas with glide bombs, drones, and missiles. The goal is simple and sinister – to make life miserable and deflect state resources to deal with the deteriorating humanitarian situation there.

Russia has also escalated barrages against ports around Odesa, which are the most targeted areas now after Kyiv. Cargo ships under international flags now do not dare to come to Ukrainian ports to carry out the newly harvested crops, which may endanger Ukraine’s revenue and further undermine its precarious macroeconomic outlook.

The Russian campaigns are taking a toll. Last month, for the first since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine was left with no interceptors for Patriot air defence systems, a legacy of sluggish production rates and the Iran war.

Over the course of July, Russia fired 195 ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles with only 29 intercepted, according to the Ukrainian military, with attacks on Kyiv every three to four days. Russia has targeted military-tech enterprises and warehouses in these latest attacks on the capital – while residents fear an even harsher winter as the Kremlin’s attention turns to critical infrastructure in the coming months.

The goal seems clear. As Kyiv contributes more than 20 per cent of GDP and a disproportionate share of private defence enterprises are based in the city, any major disruption of life would have severe social, military and political consequences for Ukraine’s war effort.

The Ukrainian government is left scrambling for any interceptors it can lay hands on through allies, while trying to lay foundations for a more sustainable future. The European ballistic missiles defence coalition, inaugurated last month to deliver new air defence capabilities, now includes 10 countries and 12 enterprises. But this is expected to be over a three-to-five year timeline at best with proper funding.

Simultaneously, Ukraine could be forced to switch to a more proactive approach to countering the Russian missile threat through cross-border attacks against launchers. Ideally, a combination of the Starlink mobile internet network, radio-guided drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and Western intelligence, could be harnessed against launchers. Enough successful attacks could create a level of risk and fear among Russian operators to neutralise the threat.

The war has entered a brutal phase, with the front deadlocked and both sides seeking to undermine the enemy war effort by destroying the ability of their state to function. Ukraine has no choice other than perseverance, and to hope for continued support from its allies.