Andy Burnham has cemented the “bounce” which saw Labour leapfrog Nigel Farage’s Reform after more than a year, according to an exclusive poll for The i Paper, which sees his party maintain its lead in the polls and his own popularity with the voters increase.

It comes after the new Prime Minister’s summer blitz of cost-of-living help and tour around the country. However, with Parliament due to return from summer recess next week, a difficult Budget in October and a number of tricky decisions over taxation and welfare cuts, Burnham’s honeymoon with the electorate could yet be tested.

Labour on 27 per cent now has a four-point lead over Reform UK, according to the latest BMG Research survey, with the Tories in third on 18 per cent. Restore, on five per cent, are taking one in ten Reform voters, BMG says, and attracting those who don’t vote.

The i Paper‘s exclusive poll last month was among the first to reveal the Burnham ‘bounce’, giving him a five-point lead over Reform – the first time the party had been ahead of Reform in 16 months according to BMG polling.

Although this month’s polling shows a slight fall of one per cent in Labour’s share, it defies suggestions that his initial rush of support would quickly dissipate.

While this level of support would likely leave Labour short of a Commons majority if replicated in a general election, there were other encouraging signs for the party; voters now believe Labour is best placed to tackle all the major issues facing the UK other than immigration (Reform) and the environment (Greens).

Burnham also most popular party leader

The new polling signalled further bad news for Nigel Farage, as right-wing competitor Restore Britain took hold of five per cent of voters – around 1.5 million people – eating into Reform’s support base.

Trust in Labour on the cost of living – the most important single issue for voters – has risen to its highest level since October 2024 (25 per cent) after Burnham announced a wave of policies to put more money in people’s pockets, including cutting VAT off energy bills and restoring the £2 cap on bus fares.

And in further signs that the Prime Minister’s early emphasis on measures to make people’s lives easier is paying off, Labour’s lead on the economy (24 per cent) has grown to eight points over the Conservatives (16 per cent).

However, Burnham will be mindful that voters may be withholding judgement on his economic credentials until October’s Budget, with the Government already under pressure over the possibility of tax rises to fund increases in spending in areas like defence.

Meanwhile, with small boat crossings and asylum hotel use falling substantially, Labour (20 per cent) is closing the gap to Reform (24 per cent) on who voters trust to deal with immigration, with Nigel Farage’s party’s lead cut to four points.

Burnham saw his personal ratings increase to +6 per cent from +1 per cent, the highest for a Prime Minister since Boris Johnson, and the only party leader to have a positive rating. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was on a health neutral rating of 0 per cent, while Farage was on -20 and Green leader Zack Polanski on -21.

By contrast, the former Labour leader and Prime Minister was on -44 at the end of June.

However, BMG warned that the Prime Minister’s support was still not strong enough to go for a snap election and win a personal mandate for power.

Blow for Farage as Restore eats into vote

Robert Struthers, head of public perceptions at BMG, said: “What Burnham is doing is quite simple but in a fractured political landscape it’s enough to hold a lead: winning back Labour voters and also winning over some 2024 Greens and Liberal Democrats.

“In June, in the final weeks of Starmer, just over six in 10 of the party’s voters were sticking with them. Now it’s seven in 10.

“The right, by contrast, is ever more fractured. This month, for the first time, we included a prompt for Restore, and they are backed by a solid 5 per cent, suggesting around 1.5 million voters would cast a ballot for Rupert Lowe’s outfit if an election were held tomorrow.”

Struthers said the party presents a “major headache” for Farage, as Lowe is “splintering the voters” that Reform “might have thought were its ‘core’ support”.

“One in 10 2024 Reform voters now say they would vote Restore,” he added. “The caveats are that, as a new and relatively untested party, the Restore vote could be squeezed in the event of an election, and it’s unclear how many seats they will actually stand in.

“But they present a big electoral problem for Reform. At the current rate, likely the difference between Reform entering power or not.”

:: BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,579 GB adults between 25 and 26 August. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.