Andy Burnham faces a battle to stop Labour losing up to 18 MPs in London at the next general election, according to a new poll.

The Savanta survey for The Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), showed backing for Labour on 32% in voting intention for Parliament, 11 percentage points down on its standing at the July 2024 general election.

Reform UK and the Conservatives are tied in second place on 18%, with the Green Party on 16%, Liberal Democrats 10%, independents and others on 6%.

The poll was carried out earlier this month and points to the new Prime Minister’s wave of optimism and new policies so far not yet lifting Labour’s fortunes in the capital.

The Conservatives under leader Kemi Badenoch could gain eight parliamentary seats from Labour across a swathe of west, north and central London.

Such a string of victories would reverse some of the 2024 election disaster for the Tories which left the party with zero MPs in Inner London.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which seized control of its first council in London when it won Havering at the May local elections, may win three seats from Labour and four from the Conservatives.

The survey also put Reform’s London mayoral contender Laila Cunningham in second place in voting intention for the 2028 contest for City Hall, on 20%, behind Labour on 33%, but ahead of the Tories on 18%.

Such a result would lead to Ms Cunningham getting to the election run-off, when second choice votes are counted, against Sir Sadiq Khan or another Labour contender if he decides not to stand for a fourth term.

Zack Polanski’s Greens might win four seats from Labour, mainly in Inner London, with independents possibly also gaining three.

However, the margins of possible victories in many of these constituencies are so small that Labour may hold onto a significant chunk of them, according to the analysis by Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at QMUL.

“Some seats in Hackney, Newham & Lewisham could flip to the Greens while the Conservatives would be hoping for gains in West London,” he said.

“Reform will be targeting seats in the outer boroughs of the East and Southeast.” 


Mr Farage’s party, which has one MP in London after Andrew Rosindell defected from the Tories in Romford, could win Bexleyheath and Crayford, Dagenham and Rainham, as well as Eltham and Chislehurst from Labour.

It might also gain Orpington, Bromley and Biggin Hill, Hornchurch and Upminster,, as well as Old Bexley and Sidcup from the Tories.

The Conservatives may regain Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Kensington and Bayswater, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as well as winning Brent West, all from Labour.

Mr Polanski is expected to stand for election to Parliament in a London seat.

Independents could win in Ilford North, where the sitting MP is Defence Secretary Wes Streeting, and in Ilford South, as well as in Bethnal Green and Stepney, the analysis suggests, though Labour could just as easily hold onto these seats.

Jeremy Corbyn would retain Islington North.

Mr Polanski’s party won control of a string of councils in London at the May elections and his party, like Reform, faces increasing scrutiny over how it acts in power.

* Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18+ online between 10th and 17th August 2026. Data are weighted.