Roll a round metal dustbin down a hill and it will gain momentum and create a hell of a racket.

If Count Binface is to maximise support from voters in the Clacton by-election on Thursday this is in a way what he needs to achieve.

By ramping up his campaign to maximum volume, it could gain momentum and possibly persuade a significant number of normally Tory, Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat voters to back him.

The four main parties in England, apart from Reform UK, decided not to take part in the by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage’s decision to quit as an MP as he faced financial allegations, dismissing it as a stunt.

There are a couple of problems, though, for Count Binface, the electoral and space warrior character created by comedian Jon Harvey.

First, it’s difficult to find a hill in the largely flat Essex seaside resort of Clacton-on-Sea and rolling a metal dustbin down one, if it could be found, would clearly be unwise given the damage it could cause.

But more significantly, enthusing people to take part in a by-election, which many think is unnecessary, in the middle of August is likely to be a struggle.

Many voters will be away on holiday, though, some may already have cast their ballot by postal vote.

Others may be far more focused on getting through another day of the long, hot summer rather than heading to the polling station to vote for Mr Farage, a bin, or one of the dozens of other minor candidates, especially when the result is not in doubt.

However, this is not a normal by-election and which is why it is difficult for the Reform leader to emerge triumphant even if he wins by a comfortable margin.

At the 2024 general election, Mr Farage gained 46.2% of the vote, as 21,225 Clacton constituency residents supported him, with Conservative Giles Watling in second place on 27.9%, or 12,820 votes.

Theoretically, it is possible for Count Binface to scoop up a huge chunk of the anti-Farage vote and to win.

But very few, if any, at Westminster expect this to happen.

In fact, Mr Farage is likely to increase his vote share, on a low turnout, to considerably more than 50% of those casting a ballot in the by-election.

But the benchmark for success in such a bizarre by-election is far higher than just over 50%, which is a level of support acheived by just five MPs at the 2024 general election.

The closest recent comparable is the by-election triggered by senior Tory David Davis.

He resigned as MP for Haltemprice and Howden, in the East Riding of Yorkshire, in 2008 over the Labour government's plans to detain terror suspects for up to 42 days.

In the subsequent by-election on July 10 which Labour and the Lib Dems did not contest, Mr Davis, now knighted, won with a majority of 15,355, or 72% of the vote, up from 47.5% at the 2005 general election.

Mr Farage, who denies any wrongdoing over his financial affairs but has faced a probe by Parliament’s standards watchdog, may achieve a similar level of support.

He leads Count Binface by 73% to 20%, once undecideds are excluded, according to a Survation poll.

If Mr Farage can push his vote share towards 75% or above, crucially outdoing Sir David, then he can use that to bolster his claim that he is engaged in a battle against “the Establishment”.

But if the space warrior, who has published a 20-point manifesto, can gain closer to 25% of the vote or more, then the Reform leader will face even more questions over his decision to quit Parliament and trigger the by-election.

Whatever the result, though, news of the political “farce” has spread around the world and threatens to backfire against Mr Farage, especially if it is followed by a second by-election, which may happen if he is found to have broken the rules for MPs.