No 10 insiders are discussing an early election. Here’s what’s really going on

After taking over as Labour prime minister from Tony Blair, Gordon Brown stood on the brink of a calling a snap election in September 2007. Within weeks, he had backed away.

The move came to define his premiership. The Tories handed out stunt bottles of Newcastle Ale labelled “Bottler Brown”. Once a Labour big beast, with a reputation for strength and strategic skill, Brown never shook off the moniker.

The lesson stuck with two members of Brown’s then Cabinet: Andy Burnham and James Purnell.

Fast-forward nearly 20 years and Purnell is chief of staff in Burnham’s No 10. Now, they in turn are trying to shrug off the question of an early election which has crept up the news agenda since Burnham took over from Sir Keir Starmer in July.

Noah Woods drowned after slipping through ‘gap in playground fence’

BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE Undated family handout file photo first issued by Suffolk Police 15/09/26 of three-year-old Noah Woods, who was found dead in a lake following a huge search had left a play area "through a gap in the fence", an inquest in Ipswich heard. Noah became separated from a relative after visiting a playground in Merriam Close, Brantham, on the afternoon of September 15, Suffolk Police said. Around 1,300 members of the public joined a search to find the youngster, who police said was non-verbal, partially deaf and had been undergoing an assessment for autism. Issue date: Friday September 25, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Family Handout/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.

Noah Woods, the three-year-old boy who was the subject of a huge search in Suffolk, drowned after escaping “through a gap in the fence” at a playground, an inquest has heard.

Major search for toddler

The toddler, who had a speech delay and was partially deaf, became separated from a relative at a playground in Brantham village on 15 September.

A major search was carried out, with at least 1,300 people helping to try find him in the 24 hours after he went missing, along with helicopters, dog units and police divers.

A police officer at a playground in Merriam Close Brantham, near Manningtree, where a non-verbal autistic three-year-old boy called Noah Woods, went missing when he became separated from a relative after visiting the playground. Noah is believed to have run off down the alleyway beside the playground towards the new build housing estate, officers said. Picture date: Wednesday September 16, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Will Colebourne/PA Wire
BRANTHAM, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 16: Members of the public search alleyways in the village of Brantham for the missing Noah Woods on September 16, 2026 in Brantham, England. Hundreds of volunteers have joined a police search for three-year-old Noah Woods, who went missing from a playground after he "became separated" from a relative. (Photo by Martin Pope/Getty Images)

Noah ran out of sight

Police told Suffolk Coroner’s Court that Noah had left the playground, walked into a memorial garden and left that through an open gate.

  • He then ran down a path on a new housing estate towards the nearby Decoy Pond.
  • Det Ch Insp Matt Connick from Suffolk Police told the court that CCTV showed Noah playing in the area with a relative close by.
  • After he had left the play area, he was closely followed by the relative trying to catch up with him, he added.
  • The inquest heard the relative had shouted out to Noah, but he went out of sight shortly afterwards.

Police divers recover boy’s body

Police divers from the Metropolitan Police searched Decoy Pond the next day. They found the boy’s body five metres from the edge of the pond within submerged tree roots at a depth of 1.8 metres.

Noah’s death was confirmed at 4.31pm by paramedics and his identity was formally confirmed by his mother, at Ipswich Hospital that evening, the inquest heard.

Members of HM Coastguard Search and Rescue continue their search for non-verbal autistic three-year-old Noah Woods, who went missing when he became separated from a relative after visiting a playground in Merriam Close, Brantham, near Manningtree. Noah is believed to have run off down the alleyway beside the playground towards the new build housing estate, officers said. Picture date: Wednesday September 16, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Will Colebourne/PA Wire

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BRANTHAM, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 16: Floral tributes are left by the playground on Merriam Close as a body is discovered on September 16, 2026 in Brantham, England. Hundreds of volunteers have joined a police search for three-year-old Noah Woods, who went missing from a playground after he "became separated" from a relative. (Photo by Martin Pope/Getty Images)
  • The inquest has been adjourned until a later date.
  • In tribute shared by Suffolk Police, his family said that Noah was a “happy, cheeky, playful” boy who was being assessed for autism.

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‘The centre of our world’

He was part of a loving and caring family, living with his mummy, daddy and his little baby brother. He was at the centre of our world… Despite the challenges he faced, he was learning every day. He was saying new words all the time and had only just started finding and using his little voice.

dr pauline swift, the charity chair of blood pressure uk
Missing three-year-old Noah Woods (Photo: Suffolk Constabulary)
French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Leo shake hands upon the pope's arrival at Paris-Orly Airport in Orly, near Paris, for a four-day apostolic journey to France, September 25, 2026. Vatican Media/??Simone Risoluti/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.

Pope Leo arrives in France for first papal visit in 18 years

Pope Leo has arrived in France for ​a whirlwind four-day papal visit – the first in 18 years.

Leo, who became pope in May last year, said he wished to be a pilgrim of peace for a world at war, as he prepares to meet victims of the Catholic Church abuse scandal.

Pope meets with Macron

Earlier this year, the first US pope criticised leaders who spend billions on wars, just days after a high-profile spat with US President Donald Trump over the Iran conflict.

Pope Leo XIV (L) and France's President Emmanuel Macron (R) review a guard of honour on the tarmac after disembarking from the plane upon his arrival at the Orly airport, in the outskirts of Paris, on September 25, 2026 for his four days visit to France. Pope Leo XIV begins an official visit to France on September 25, with several thorny issues hanging over the trip, from clerical sexual abuse to the country's new assisted dying law. (Photo by Yoan VALAT / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron welcome Pope Leo as he arrives for a meeting with authorities, members of civil society and the diplomatic corps at the Elysee Palace in Paris as part of his four-day apostolic journey to France, September 25, 2026. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier

Superstar fanfare

Children welcome Pope Leo and French President Emmanuel Macron at Orly airport, south of Paris, France, 25 September 2026. YOAN VALAT/Pool via REUTERS
  • Over a million people are expected to turn out to see him, with the highpoint being a Mass attended by half a million people in central Paris.
  • Leo has built a strong following among Gen Z through addressing modern anxieties.

Visit hoped to repair Church image

Local Church leaders hope the trip will repair the Church’s standing after a 2021 report found that 330,000 French children had been abused by Catholic clergy and lay leaders over the past 70 years.

French bishops have since introduced compensation and safeguarding measures.

The pope will meet seven French victims of abuse by Catholic clergy on Sunday in Lourdes.

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AI presents ‘new dangers to international peace’, says pope

Leo, who has made AI concerns a cornerstone of his papacy, is expected to address the issue at UNESCO.

In a speech at the Vatican on Thursday, the pope said AI could benefit humanity, but has introduced “new dangers to security and international peace” and urged global leaders to “govern wisely”.

Pope Leo meets with faithful upon his arrival at Paris-Orly Airport in Orly, near Paris, for a four-day apostolic journey to France, September 25, 2026. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

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In pictures: Leo’s visit to Paris

Pope Leo XIV waves as he arrives at Paris-Orly Airport for a welcome ceremony, in Paris, Friday, Sept. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)
Pope Leo XIV (L) waves to people as he walks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (R) upon his arrival at the Orly airport, in the outskirts of Paris, on September 25, 2026 for his four days visit to France. Pope Leo XIV begins an official visit to France on September 25, with several thorny issues hanging over the trip, from clerical sexual abuse to the country's new assisted dying law. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP via Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE - SEPTEMBER 25: (EDITOR NOTE: STRICTLY EDITORIAL USE ONLY - NO MERCHANDISING). Pope Leo XIV attends the Welcome Ceremony at Paris Orrly International Airport on September 25, 2026 in Paris, France. Pope Leo XIV is making his first official visit to France from September 25-28 with stops in Paris, Lourdes, and Metz. While in Paris, the pontiff's agenda includes a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, a prayer service at Notre-Dame Cathedral, and an open-air mass along the Champs-??lys??es, among other engagements. The trip marks the first papal visit to the European country since Benedict XVI visited in 2008. (Photo by Simone Risoluti - Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)
British rapper Yung Filly, whose real name is Andres Felipe Valencia Barrientos, leaves the Western Australian District Court in Perth, Australia, on July 27, 2026. (Aaron Bunch/AAP Image via AP)

British rapper Yung Filly to face rape retrial

British rapper Yung Filly will face a rape retrial in Australia next June after a jury failed to reach a verdict in an earlier trial.

Filly, whose real name is Andres Felipe Valencia Barrientos, was charged with the alleged rape and assault of a fan after performing at a nightclub in Perth in 2024.

No decision for rape charges

In July, a jury acquitted the 31-year-old of three counts of rape, one of assault and one of strangulation but found him guilty of two assault charges.

No decision was reached for three rape charges, which Barrientos has denied.

He is understood to have returned to the UK after the court granted him permission to leave Australia as part of his bail conditions.

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Sentencing to take place after retrial

Perth’s district court has set 15 June as the start date for the retrial, which is expected to last eight days.

Sentencing for the two assault charges that the jury found Barrientos guilty of will take place after the retrial.

Andres Felipe Valencia Barrientos, the British YouTuber and rapper known as Yung Filly, arrives at the Perth Magistrates Court in Perth, Australia, Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. (Richard Wainwright/AAP Image via AP) 14808423 15990151
British YouTuber and rapper known as Yung Filly, whose real name is Andres Felipe Valencia Barrientos, leaves Western Australian District Court in Perth, Australia, Monday, July 27, 2026. (Aaron Bunch/AAP Image via AP)

Barrientos is known for his work with the YouTube collective Beta Squad and has previously appeared in the celebrity version of on Channel 4.

What the court heard in first trial

Barrientos had been on tour in Australia when he was accused of sexually assaulting the woman in his hotel room after he performed in Hillarys, a coastal suburb of Perth.

  • The court heard that the social media star had consensual sex with the fan in his hotel room, before she alleged he turned violent and refused to stop.
  • During the trial, Barrientos told the court that he had “fancied” the woman when they met at the concert venue.
  • He had been in the VIP area while she leaned over the barrier from the general area.
  • He said the “vibes were good” between him and the woman when they arrived at his hotel later.

Prosecution calls Filly ‘entitled’

During the first trial’s closing arguments, prosecutor Danielle Clarke said Barrientos was an “entitled” man with a “moderate degree of fame” who had violated the fan “in the most intrusive way possible”.

His defence lawyer argued that the accuser’s evidence was full of “inconsistencies, embellishments and outright lies”.

File photo dated 06/05/24 of Youtuber Andres Felipe Valencia Barrientos, known as "Yung Filly", ahead of the Premier League match at Selhurst Park, London. British YouTuber and rapper Yung Filly has been granted bail after appearing in an Australian court on charges of rape and assault. The internet personality, real name Andres Felipe Valencia Barrientos, was taken into custody in Brisbane on Tuesday and extradited to Perth where the alleged incident occurred. Issue date: Friday October 11, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story SHOWBIZ Barrientos. Photo credit should read: Zac Goodwin/PA Wire 14808423

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The UK’s pharmacy blackspots

LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: A general view of a pharmacy ahead of its regular opening hours on September 19, 2024 in London, England. UK Pharmacies vote today on whether to cut their opening hours from more than 60 per week to 40 in protest of the lack of government funding. The National Pharmacy Association (NPA) represents some 6,000 pharmacies across the UK and says 1500 have closed since 2016 because of higher workloads. Government funding has fallen by 40% in real terms since 2015-2016. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images) NB Pharmacy phone number is blurred

Nearly 300,000 people have seen their local pharmacy shut this year, with dozens closing in shortage areas leaving patients with 17-mile round trips to pick up vital medicines.

Two sites closed per week

Analysis of NHS figures by the National Pharmacy Association (NPA) revealed that 51 high-street pharmacies in England shut between January and August this year – the equivalent of two a week.

Of the total, 31 received government funding under a scheme to maintain vital access to medicines for patients in “healthcare shortage” areas.

LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: A pharmacist prepares a prescription at the Keencare pharmacy, a member of the Green Light Group, on September 19, 2024 in London, England. UK Pharmacies vote today on whether to cut their opening hours from more than 60 per week to 40 in protest of the lack of government funding. The National Pharmacy Association (NPA) represents some 6,000 pharmacies across the UK and says 1500 have closed since 2016 because of higher workloads. Government funding has fallen by 40% in real terms since 2015-2016. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
File photo dated 16/11/09 of a pharmacist stocking shelves. Pharmacy staff are facing "escalating abuse" from patients while at work, with reports of racism, verbal attacks and violence, a survey has found. Around one in five pharmacy owners said verbal abuse was a daily occurrence, according to Community Pharmacy England. Issue date: Thursday March 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Julien Behal/PA Wire

The South West of England has been hit hardest by closures.

  • Nine pharmacies closed across Devon, Cornwall and Somerset.
  • Three pharmacies alone closed in the Somerset town of Taunton.
  • Closures are forcing patients to travel significant distances to access emergency prescriptions as well as contraception and clinical advice, particularly on a weekend, patient groups and pharmacies have warned.
  • The recent closure of a Lloyds Pharmacy in Long Rock, Penzance, left patients with an up to 1 hour and 20-minute journey by public transport to access their nearest pharmacy – a 17-mile round trip.

Why are pharmacies closing?

Pharmacies have seen real-terms cuts of 40 per cent to their funding since 2016. Since then, 1,500 pharmacies have closed – meaning 9.9 million patients in England have seen their local chemist close, analysis shows.

Despite a £340m Government boost to pharmacy funding in May, NHS analysis for the Community Pharmacy England (CPE) body shows community pharmacies still face a funding gap of more than £2bn.

Just one in seven pharmacies are profitable, a separate survey by CPE of more than 2,900 pharmacies in July revealed.

A female pharmacist discussing a prescription with an elderly lady customer at the service counter in a pharmacy. - stock photo

Patchy medicine access

When a pharmacy closes, it can create pockets where patients will find it harder to access medicines, collect prescriptions and get advice from their local pharmacy. Closures often happen in areas where healthcare support is needed most so it intensifies health inequalities.

Dr James Davies, director of research and insights at Community Pharmacy England
An elderly White woman smiles as a female clinician administers a vaccination in a pharmacy aisle. The scene conveys care, health, and preventive medicine, highlighting patient comfort and accessible healthcare.

Pressure on other NHS services

NPA leaders urged the Government to reform NHS’s contract with pharmacies. Around 90 per cent of a pharmacy’s work is funded through the NHS, they added.

William Pett, of Healthwatch, said longer distances were “difficult for those with limited mobility or no access to transport” and that is “is no surprise that some people end up turning to other parts of the NHS when they cannot get the help they need in their community”.

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The groundbreaking new DNA brain tumour test

MRI Brain Scan. Doctor shows MRI Brain Scan of head and skull.

A groundbreaking new DNA test will be offered to patients with brain tumours as part of a new pilot study, which NHS officials say will reduce average diagnosis rates from weeks to days.

Experts say the rapid genomic test can confirm a diagnosis within two hours – meaning medics can know the precise type of tumour even during surgery.

Huge boost to personalised care

LONDON,ENGLAND - February 2025, In this photo illustration a NHS front line workers uniform. (Photo by Peter Dazeley/Getty Images)

The NHS said the test will be piloted in specialist centres around England.

Personalised care

It could help patients get personalised care sooner and help enrol them on clinical trials which they may have missed out on.

Sue Rapp of Highlands Ranch received a CAT scan at Health One Swedish Medical Center to update her on the success of her ovarian cancer chemotherapy treatments on Thursday, June 28, 2001. (Photo By Cyrus McCrimmon/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
Human head scan, x-ray.

Officials said brain tumours are “notoriously difficult” to diagnose.

How does it work?

The cutting-edge technology works by quickly analysing the DNA or genetic code of a small tumour sample taken during biopsy or surgery, helping doctors identify what type of brain tumour the patient has.

There are more than 100 different types of tumours, which range from slow-growing to aggressive cancers.

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This remarkable rapid test has the potential to completely transform how we diagnose  .

Professor Frankie Swords, NHS England’s medical director, added that the test is a “huge leap forward” for patients.

Rising numbers of people waiting on hospital trolleys for more than 12 hours for urgent care. (Photo: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

This is a huge leap forward for patients – a faster diagnosis means they can start the right treatment or access clinical trials sooner, while for some patients it could mean surgeons can make potentially life-changing decisions about their surgery while on the operating table.

Professor Frankie Swords, NHS England medical director
Removal of a cerebral tumor, glioma, Nice Hospital, France Awake surgery consists of waking the patient during the operation in order to precisely locate, using electrical stimulation, crucial areas for vital functions, language, motor function etc, with the aim of preserving them during the ablation of the tumor The neurosurgeon studies the MRI scan. (Photo by: BSIP/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Health Secretary hails ‘incredible breakthrough’

Health Secretary Yvette Cooper called the technology an “incredible breakthrough”.

Dr Simon Newman of The Brain Tumour Charity added that it will help patients avoid the “‘cruel, traumatic’” experience of waiting weeks to find out which type of brain tumour they have and their prognosis.

Health Secretary Yvette Cooper during a visit to a community-based mental health centre in Sheffield. A raft of new mental health centres are to open in libraries, banks and other high street locations across England to get people "support earlier closer to home", the Government has announced. Picture date: Thursday August 6, 2026.

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Why experts fear loss of rare flower shows the UK’s climate future

A rare flower may have gone extinct in southern England due to extreme heat and drought, in what experts fear is a “canary in the mine” for how climate change is affecting biodiversity.

Undated handout photo issued by The Species Recovery Trust of a field gentian in the New Forest, Hampshire after this year's hot summer. The rare flower may have been wiped out in southern England by extreme heat and drought, in what experts warn is a "canary in the mine" for how climate change is driving the loss of species. The field gentian has bloomed across Britain until now, and until recently was such an abundant sight in the New Forest, Hampshire, that it was a challenge counting them all, conservationists said. Issue date: Friday September 25, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: The Species Recovery Trust/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.

Field gentian all but wiped out

Until recently, the field gentian was abundant in the New Forest, Hampshire.

It was previously thought these populations could survive hot summers, due to their sheer size – often more than 5,000 plants at each site – and their ability for seeds to move with livestock into more sheltered areas.

Undated handout photo issued by The Species Recovery Trust of a field gentian in the New Forest, Hampshire in 2001. The rare flower may have been wiped out in southern England by extreme heat and drought, in what experts warn is a "canary in the mine" for how climate change is driving the loss of species. The field gentian has bloomed across Britain until now, and until recently was such an abundant sight in the New Forest, Hampshire, that it was a challenge counting them all, conservationists said. Issue date: Friday September 25, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: The Species Recovery Trust/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Undated handout photo issued by The Species Recovery Trust of a field gentian. The rare flower may have been wiped out in southern England by extreme heat and drought, in what experts warn is a "canary in the mine" for how climate change is driving the loss of species. The field gentian has bloomed across Britain until now, and until recently was such an abundant sight in the New Forest, Hampshire, that it was a challenge counting them all, conservationists said. Issue date: Friday September 25, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: The Species Recovery Trust/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.

But successive heatwaves and drought – in the third extreme summer in five years – may have led to their loss from southern England.

Rare flower missing for two years

The Species Recovery Trust has been unable to locate a single field gentian plant in the New Forest for the second year in a row.

Dominic Price, director of the charity, said the purple flower grew in dry or “skeletal” grasslands, which are on the “absolute front line” of climate change as they become parched and dead in hot, dry weather.

Handout photo issued by Forestry England showing cows standing in front of a plume of smoke coming from a major heathland blaze in the New Forest near Ringwood in Hampshire. More than 20 fire engines are tackling the blaze near the A31 in Hampshire after a vehicle fire spread to the nearby heathland on Sunday. Picture date: Monday August 10, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Forestry England/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.

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This loss of what was such an abundant plant is deeply worrying, and in many ways, it feels like a canary in the mine for how climate change is likely to accelerate species loss.

Dominic Price, director of the Species Recovery Trust
A drone view shows water levels recede at Ardingly Reservoir after Britain???s Environment Agency declared the East Midlands, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Kent, East Sussex, Solent and South Downs regions in drought during the fifth heatwave of the year, near Ardingly, south???east Britain, August 12, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Jasso

Is it gone for ever?

  • Price said “there’s potential for a miracle” with a wet summer next year helping the plant stage a comeback.
  • In the summer of 2022, when UK temperatures soared to 40°C for the first time, field gentian populations crashed in the south of England, and went extinct in Devon.
  • But populations recovered slightly the following year.

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The Reform MPs who face losing their seats according to new poll

Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are among four Reform UK MPs who would lose their seats if a general election were held tomorrow, fresh polling by YouGov shows.

Falling behind the Tories

Tory defector Danny Kruger and Sarah Pochin – who beat Labour in a 2025 by-election – would also be unseated, according to the leading UK pollster’s first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 11: Reform MP Sarah Pochin speaks at a Reform UK Press Conference in Westminster on August 11, 2025 in London, England. Female Reform UK members including Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire Andrea Jenkyns and Reform MP Sarah Pochin are holding a press conference on crimes that affect women as part of their summer Crime campaign. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Former Conservative MP Danny Kruger, who has defected to Reform UK, speaking during a press conference in Westminster, central London. Picture date: Monday September 15, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire

Although the party’s numbers of MPs would hugely increase, it would have fewer seats than the Tories overall, marking a significant fall when compared to last year’s polling.

How a Labour government could be formed

The poll predicts that Labour would be the biggest party in a hung parliament.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey recently ruled out forming a coalition with Reform or the Tories but stopped short of excluding a coalition with Labour.

However, to form a Parliamentary majority in this scenario, Burnham would also need to work with the SNP or Plaid Cymru.

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Reform expanding its operations

The polling comes as Reform is preparing a huge expansion of its operations around the country, targeting London, the South East, the South West and the East of England.

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 05: Reform UK Party Leader Nigel Farage speaks to Jeremy Kyle on the second day of the Reform Party conference at National Exhibition Centre on September 05, 2026 in Birmingham, England. Reform UK enters its September 2026 annual party conference facing a recent dip in opinion polls, dropping to 22%???23% in national voting intention after peaking at 28% in May. For the first time in over 18 months, the party has slipped behind the Conservatives into third place in select polling, squeezed by a resurgent Labour Party under Prime Minister Andy Burnham and new competition on the right. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)
  • Analysis of Reform job adverts by The i Paper suggests the party is pumping resources into areas where it wants to keep its high-profile Tory defectors.

There’s turmoil in the Liberal Democrats. And MPs are struggling for direction

Stagnant in the polls but still a potential kingmaker, the party’s at a crossroads – even its own members are asking what comes next.

Record number of assaults on Britain’s trains – what to know

Assaults on Britain’s railways have hit record levels, new figures from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) have revealed.

February 8th. 2024. A diesel powered passenger commuter train stops at Hatton Station Warwickshire England UK. It is a bright day and there are no visible people in the picture.

The numbers

The data published on Thursday showed there were 13,464 reported assaults on people who were not railway workers between April 2025 and March 2026, an increase of 36 per cent compared to the previous year.

Avanti Pendolino departing Crewe station as a member of platform staff watch the train leave.
  • 11,289 assaults on rail workers on mainline networks were also recorded, an increase of 12 per cent. This included 6,390 incidents of verbal abuse, 2,487 physical assaults and 2,412 threats.

Working to make railways safer

No-one on the railway should be subjected to violence, threats or abuse. We’re working with industry and our trade union colleagues to address work-related violence and harassment, including through recent guidance which sets out what we expect from rail employers.

Richard Hines, ORR’s chief inspector  railways
London/ UK, Sept. 2017 - Rush hour at Liverpool Street Station/ London

“We’re just trying to get rid of the speculation because what Brown let happen was it built up around him and he didn’t damp it down because he was testing to see whether he should or shouldn’t. And he looked weak when he didn’t,” a senior Labour source said.

Efforts by Burnham to declare publicly he has no intention of going to the country seem to have little effect. A Labour bounce in the polls and investigations into Reform UK’s financial affairs have prompted chatter that the Prime Minister would seek his own mandate from the country to escape the fiscal straitjacket of the 2024 manifesto.

Senior No 10 staffers have held private discussions about the level of polling support they would need to call an election. “They’ve had conversations about what would the parameters be in which they would make a decision, but I don’t think they’ve made a decision, and ultimately I don’t think they will,” according to one recent visitor to No 10. “Meanwhile, MPs seem to want to talk themselves into it.”

Purnell has privately told Labour MPs there are no plans for an early election. Sceptics say – naturally -he wouldn’t tell gossipy parliamentarians. It is one thing to keep the party and country guessing, but there are constitutional niceties too. If he intended an election, Burnham would have to inform King Charles as head of state.

Royal insiders made discreet inquiries about election rumours

Sources told The i Paper outriders for the King were concerned enough by speculation that Burnham could go to the country as soon as December that they made discreet inquiries of senior Labour officials at the Goodwood Revival racing meeting in Sussex last weekend. Amid vintage cars, a Vespa rally and live jazz, an unofficial but clear message was passed to the Palace that Burnham has no plans to call an election.

Speculation of an early poll, which had rumbled all summer, became turbo-charged when Reform received a record-breaking total of £72m in donations from two cryptocurrency billionaires within 48 hours this month.

In Labour circles, arguments ranged from how to retrospectively designate the payments as illegal to whether Burnham should bite the bullet and go to the country as quickly as possible before Reform has time to spend the money. He must call an election by August 2029 at the latest.

No 10 party for would-be Labour donors

At a mid-September Downing Street rose garden reception for Labour donors, Cabinet ministers were out charming guests including former Autoglass boss Gary Lubner and Fran Perrin, daughter of Labour peer and scion of the supermarket dynasty David Sainsbury. Celebrity potter Grayson Perry, another donor, added a colourful note.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey, stepped in to speak in Burnham’s place. The Prime Minister was not present, mourning his father, Roy, who had just died.

“It was a thank you for what you have done and a thank you for what you’re about to do, or we’d like you to do,” according to a source close to one of the donors present.

At the party, some erstwhile benefactors yet to contribute to Burnham’s refreshed Labour Party were asking for information about Joe Fortune, who was formally installed as Labour’s General Secretary last week after Burnham’s No 10 politely asked the other candidates to step aside over the summer.

Raised in Liverpool by traditionally Labour family, Fortune is the genial, if plain talking, 6’5’’ backroom fixer who will eventually oversee the party’s general election planning. He’ll be aided by a recently appointed new head of fundraising. Until recently, the party had been struggling to fill the role, resorting to head-hunters to fill the position.

‘Unforgivably reckless’ to throw away Labour’s majority

A large-scale seat by seat poll published by YouGov in recent days did nothing to diminish the chatter among Labour MPs. It put Labour as the largest party, with 241 seats. Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives would be in second place with 130 seats and Reform into third place with 123 seats.

Crucially, this is short of an outright majority. However well he did, Burnham would win far fewer seats than Starmer. “It would be unforgivably reckless to throw it all away,” as one Cabinet minister put it.

Reform’s in-fighting has also led to speculation Burnham could call a snap election. The Holborn and St Pancras by-election in which Zack Polanski is running against Labour is another key test of whether Burnham can see off the Greens on his left flank.

That’s led some to speculate the outcome may help focus the Prime Minister’s mind. Not true, according to one insider.

“I understand why people are speculating because Reform have had some blows, and if we do finish off the Greens in the by-election, then that looks like material political progress,” the Labour insider said. “But when you think how fragmented things were in May, there are absolutely no internal reasons to think an election is imminent at all. Andy wouldn’t want to risk having taken three leadership contests over 15 years to get to be in a position where you’re throwing all caution to the wind.”

“The party simply isn’t ready. We have only just elected Michael Marra as the new leader in Scotland, and in England, the party doesn’t reflect the organisational structures that stem from having stronger emphasis on the regional mayors. Constituency-level organising flows down from that,” another Labour source said.

Little room for giveaways to boost popularity with voters

And if Labour faithful are looking for more proof points that an election is in the offing, they will be disappointed at conference. Bound by the grim fiscal situation both Healey’s keynote address to delegates on Monday and Burnham’s on Tuesday will be light on populist giveaways.

“Andy’s speech is going to be visionary and optimistic and have real content, but both the speech and the Budget would be peppered with retail short-term transactionalism, if that was where the thinking and planning is at [for an election], and it really isn’t that,” a Labour insider observed.

And while the chatter about an early election seemingly won’t quieten down, some Labour insiders are phlegmatic. “I always think is a sign that we’re doing pretty well politically, so you have to take it on the chin,” remarked a party staffer.

A No 10 spokesperson: “The Prime Minister could not have been clearer, he has ruled out an early election.”

Original source No 10 insiders are discussing an early election. Here’s what’s really going on

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