The UK’s “one-in-one-out” migrant deal with France could end within weeks with no guarantee the controversial scheme will be extended beyond October, The i Paper can reveal.

It is understood that negotiations with the French have not yet started despite the current agreement expiring in less than two months.

Under the terms of Sir Keir Starmer’s deal, which began last September, asylum seekers who cross the English Channel in small boats face being forcibly returned to France in exchange for others who have not tried to enter the UK illegally.

Migrant advocacy groups have criticised the deal for being “a cynical bargaining over human lives” while the opposition parties have slammed it as unworkable and “another Labour gimmick”.

The pilot scheme was initially due to end in June but was extended to October to “ensure we will continue to remove migrants who arrive on small boats over the summer”, according to a Home Office spokesperson.

Government data for the first 11 months of the programme shows that more than 1,000 migrants have been sent back to France, but around 27,000 arrived on small boats during the same time period, meaning the chance of being returned stands at only 4 per cent.

reported earlier this week that nearly 50 asylum seekers deported under the deal have been recorded as returning to the UK a second time, suggesting it may not have the deterrent effect Starmer had hoped for.

Laura Padoan, of the Refugee Asylum and Migration Policy Project, who advises MPs and peers in the UK and France, said the returns deal needs “urgent attention when Parliament returns in September”, as the number of people being sent back is “still low as a proportion of total arrivals”.

She told The i Paper that increased security investment on the French side has displaced migration routes, with “more boats now being launched from Belgian shores” and the operations of criminal gangs becoming “more sophisticated and profitable”.

Padoan said that a future returns deal should be “accompanied by better legal advice in France and greater clarity over the selection criteria for detention and return, so that we don’t see repeat crossings”.

She added: “The UK would also benefit from extending the deal to other countries like Belgium and the Netherlands, or looking at participating in the EU’s asylum and migration pact, which would allow for returns to other countries in Europe.”

There has been a 43 per cent reduction in migrant arrivals to the UK, with 14,526 people crossing in small boats between January and August, down from 25,436 over the same period last year, according to the latest Home Office data.

Earlier this week, more than 170 migrants were rescued after the boat they were using to cross the Channel caught fire, with the UK Government saying that “all will be returned” to France.

Opposition parties have criticised the Government’s approach for not going far enough, with Reform UK unveiling proposals to urge the Royal Navy to intercept small boats crossing the Channel, and jail bosses who employ illegal workers.

However, France has dismissed Reform’s Royal Navy plans as “a violation of French sovereignty as well as a violation of maritime law and international law”, while a Home Office source told the BBC the proposal to jail CEOs was “empty posturing”.

Company directors can already be jailed for up to five years and fined an unlimited amount for employing someone they “knew or had reasonable cause to believe” had no right to work in the UK, and businesses can face civil penalties of up to £60,000 per illegal worker if they fail to carry out the correct checks.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp called the UK-France returns scheme “another Labour gimmick” and said it had “utterly failed” as Britain had “taken more immigrants in from France than we have returned”.

The Tory MP added: “The French are not even attempting to stop illegal Channel crossings – as I saw when I visited last week. The only way to end illegal immigration is with a proper deterrent.”

Philp said the only way to reduce migrant numbers was for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) “so we can deport all illegal immigrants rapidly on arrival”, and to stop non-citizens from claiming benefits “to cut that incentive”.

A Home Office source called the opposition plans “pretty fantastical stuff about how to tackle small boats”, saying they were “half-baked ideas from Reform, and reheated failure from the Tories”.