There are few institutions on the planet as friendly to Russia as the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) – an international collaboration of 10 member states, including China, India, Pakistan, Iran, as well as Russia itself. 

While most international bodies are dominated by the USA and its allies, meetings of the SCO are an opportunity for member states to make plans without Western nations in the room – a particularly useful opportunity for countries sanctioned by the US and cut off from trade with much of the world as a result.

So, if Vladimir Putin can expect a friendly reception anywhere, it’s here. But at this year’s meeting of leaders from the 10 nations, he got a very public dressing down instead – from India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

India is the world’s most populous nation, and one of the fastest-growing economically, meaning it is only becoming more important for world trade, and for geopolitics. It maintains friendly trading relations with the USA and with European nations, but unlike Western nations it declined to sever ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

That makes India a vital lifeline for Russia’s economy, particularly because it is one of the biggest remaining purchasers of Russian oil. Usually, Modi and Putin – both strongmen leaders, of a sort – enjoy friendly relations. But as the two prepared to meet in front of the cameras, an ageing Putin looked visibly nervous, tapping his feet and fidgeting repeatedly with his notes, almost as if something had not gone to plan behind the scenes.

World leaders are always agonisingly polite and respectful in these kinds of conferences – Modi scrupulously referred to Putin as “my friend” throughout – but traditionally they agree their comments with one another in advance, unless they have disagreed seriously behind the scenes. Modi, though, diverted a long way from Russia’s messaging.

“Every day that the war continues, humanity is, in effect, set back a step, whilst every step towards peace gives all of humanity real hope for peace,” he said. “We need to move from endless war to an end to the war, to a cessation of hostilities.”

On one level, a call for peace should be uncontroversial. Russia, after all, claims it wants peace with Ukraine – even if only on its own terms. But Russia is very much not signalling an intention to wind down hostilities against Ukraine. Indeed, it is promising to do the opposite.

The Russian defence ministry said on Sunday that Russia would launch “massive strikes” against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, prompting fears of another freezing cold winter of rolling blackouts across the country – and suggesting Moscow was not planning on slowing down its offensive any time soon, despite enormous losses for almost no progress on the front lines.

Putin is used to hearing condemnations or calls for peace from the US or from Ukraine’s allies in Europe, but this time he was hearing it from one of his most vital trading partners, at a summit attended entirely by his allies. In other words, Putin seems to be finding himself increasingly short of friends.

US policy might, indirectly, be responsible for some of the pressure Modi is applying here. Last year, Donald Trump imposed tariffs on India, saying they were in response to its continued purchases of Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine. India – alongside China – is among the top purchasers of Russian oil and has also sharply increased its exports of gasoline to Russia in recent months.

US tariffs were reduced, but are still in force at 18 per cent, and there is legislation in front of Congress – now named after Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died in July – which would increase them to 100 per cent. India might be feeling pressure from the US to either encourage Russia to end the war, or else to stop buying its oil.

Putin is now well into his seventies, in a country where male life expectancy hovers at around 68. His closest allies are all old men, too, and he is reportedly increasingly paranoid – worried that ambitious younger men around him are looking to advance.

That leaves Putin ever more isolated at home, to the point that one of the reported reasons for CIA director John Ratcliffe’s unusual visit to Moscow last week was partly just to see if Putin was getting an honest assessment of Russia’s war performance from those around him.

Modi’s apparently mild rebuke is a signal that Putin’s isolation at home might be matched overseas. Since 2022, Putin has made Russia a pariah in Europe and North America. Now, Modi appears to be gently signalling that his own support for Russia – and certainly for its war – is far from unconditional.

It is always lonely at the top. But for Vladimir Putin, it only seems to be getting lonelier.