Since the Russian embassy in London warned in August that the UK’s support for Ukraine – especially its supply of drones used to hit targets far behind the front lines – would “carry consequences”, there has been speculation as to what those might be.
Recent events give us clues to Russia’s possible response. Just yesterday, Germany blamed Russia for a drone attack on Leipzig airport in August. In September 2025, Denmark refused to rule out Russian involvement when drones disrupted air traffic at Copenhagen Airport.
A look at recent history gives us a fuller understanding – and also strongly suggests this is a threat that will endure as long as Vladimir Putin is in the Kremlin.
How the triple lock could be replaced
The state pension triple lock, which pegs payments to the highest of three economic measures, “has to stop” and should be replaced by a link to average earnings, a leading economist has warned.
What you need to know
- First introduced in 2015, the triple lock increases the state pension annually by whichever is the highest of inflation, wage increases or 2.5 per cent and will cost £15.5bn per annum by 2030.
- Paul Johnson, the former head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, warns that the policy will “take up the whole economy” if left unreformed.
- Johnson is suggesting the state pension be set as a fraction of average full-time earnings, with 33 per cent considered to be “about right”.
How would an average earnings link work
The new state pension currently sits at about 30 per cent of median full-time earnings (£39,039). A target figure for the pension as a fraction of wages – say 33 per cent – could become the benchmark for all future payments.
The system, known as a “smoothed earnings link”, would allow the pension to go up in line with inflation when it rises faster than earnings. But in other years it would remain pegged to wages, saving £650m in 2029-30.
Iran attacks US bases in the Middle East
The Iranian regime launched attacks on US military assets in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq overnight fuelling concerns about a wider resumption of hostilities.
Everything you need to know
Iranian counter-strikes
A US Marines training camp in Jordan was targeted. No deaths or injuries were reported.
Tehran claimed it had struck US warehouses in Iraqi Kurdistan. In Kuwait, the military said it had responded to Iranian missile attacks.
US resumes attacks
The Iranian assault follows American strikes in the Strait of Hormuz after a calm in hostilities.
Alleged attack on wedding
Tehran said it was responding to US strikes on its territory on Tuesday. The Iranian Red Crescent said five people, including a child, had been killed when shrapnel from an American missile hit a wedding celebration.
3 min read
Pentagon denies targeting civilians
The latest exchange of fire between the US and Iran represents a distinct escalation in a conflict which had gone into a lull for several weeks. American strikes early on Monday have led to a series of attacks.
The US military said it was aware of reports that five people were killed and more than 50 injured in a missile strike in Sirik, which sits on the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian sources said the victims were attending a wedding celebration. But the Pentagon said it “never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC”.
Trump’s military is at breaking point – he’ll pay for it at the ballot box
The attack by US drones on Iran’s Larak Island reveals that Donald Trump’s mission control, like Houston and Apollo 13, has a major problem.
The test that can spot nine in 10 bladder cancers
An at-home urine test being trialled by the NHS can detect 92 per cent of bladder cancer cases, potentially reducing the need for patients to face more urgent and invasive procedures.
A study of 1,000 patients led by the University of Birmingham found a in the simple test meant there was a more than 99 per cent chance that a patient did not have bladder cancer.
Everything you need to know
- Around 11,000 cases of bladder cancer are diagnosed in the UK each year. It is more common in men and 60 per cent of cases are in those aged 75 and over.
- The new test looks for genetic material – caused by more than 450 DNA mutations – shed into the urine by bladder cancer.
- A wider trial will establish whether the test is sufficient to rule out further procedures for negative results – and can help identify patients at greater risk of disease.
More convenience for patients
Researchers hope the test, developed with funding from Cancer Research UK, could reduce the number of patients needing cystoscopies – an invasive procedure which involves inserting a small camera into the bladder via the urethra.
Some 300,000 cystoscopies are carried out each year but there are lengthy waiting lists in some areas. By potentially ruling out cancer in tens of thousands of cases, it is hoped the new test could help doctors prioritise those in urgent need.
For if the threat from Russia has become more obvious and active since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it did not begin then. After a kind of post-Cold War honeymoon, tensions between Russia and the West began to flare up again in the late 90s and early 2000s.
In the case of the UK, that included anger over the presence in London of people who were wanted in Russia. The most high-profile cases were those of Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB agent, and Sergei Skripal, who had served in Russian military intelligence. Both were poisoned, Litvinenko, fatally, in 2006. Skripal and his daughter Yulia narrowly survived an attempt on their lives in 2018. They have been in hiding ever since.
These cases give us a clue to the Kremlin’s view now because they help to explain why the UK is seen as enemy number one. While working as a correspondent in Moscow in the 2000s, I was often asked why Britain refused to return people wanted by the Russian authorities. The answer, that the government did not control the decisions of the judiciary, was simply not believed – because in Russia, judges largely did what the Kremlin wanted.
So, what could happen now? Sabotage, arson and cyber attacks, are all real dangers. Given the particular cause of Russia’s current warning of “consequences”, the use of drones cannot be ruled out.
Then, there is the propaganda value the threat alone creates. The security services ruled out any Russian role in the electrical substation fire that caused massive disruption to Heathrow Airport in March 2025. That did not stop speculation that Russia might be to blame. The same will probably be true of any major failure of infrastructure.
Putin’s cheerleaders know this. The former president-turned-social media warrior, Dmitry Medvedev, even taunted the then-prime minister. “I’m looking forward to Russia being blamed for the Heathrow fire. What are you waiting for, Starmer?”
We have already seen arson attacks on a warehouse in East London, that one orchestrated by the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, and on property linked to Sir Keir Starmer.
In both cases, the actual perpetrators were offered cash to carry out what was not only a crime, but actually part of Russia’s war on the West.
In his 1907 novel, , Joseph Conrad has a character, a foreign diplomat at a London embassy, who orders his hired hand to carry out an attack of “especial alarming significance”. The embassy is not named – but the character is: “Mr Vladimir.”
In none of the incidents mentioned here – except the warning of consequences – has a direct link to the Russian embassy been demonstrated. In the age of another Vladimir, the tactics may or may not be similar, but the technology has certainly changed.
It is almost 20 years since Estonia suffered from a cyber attack after deciding to move a monument to the Soviet Army, seen by many there as an occupier as much as a Second World War liberator. The UK risks experiencing a more sophisticated and updated version of the same.
Then, there may be attempts to disrupt our political processes. But we should keep these in perspective. In 2024, I interviewed Ciaran Martin, the former chief executive of Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre. We discussed possible Russian attempts to influence the referendums on Brexit and Scottish independence. “The intent and activity is there. The impact, I would argue, isn’t,” Martin told me. “The quality of it was risible, and the impact of it absolutely must be assessed as zero.”
The attack that Mr Vladimir orders in goes disastrously wrong in that the target is not destroyed, and an innocent life is lost – from another point of view, he gets the “bomb outrage” he was looking for.
Vladimir Putin’s suspicion and mistrust of the UK goes back far further than the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (though has greatly increased since). Russian attempts to intimidate the UK are likely to follow the same path – not always successful, but always aiming to unsettle.