The surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in regional elections over the weekend was a major boon for Russia – but not because the swing in one of Germany’s smaller regions matters in practical terms.
What is far more important is the impact this could have on national and European politics. If mainstream parties are forced to treat the AfD and others like it as troubling but necessary partners, it points to worrying divisions across Europe that Vladimir Putin could look to further exploit. But trying to freeze them out of government would be almost as useful to the Kremlin.
There is little wonder, therefore, that some are questioning how much of a role Russia played in interfering and influencing the results.
The hefty cost of Burnham’s slick social media campaign
Andy Burnham is spending up to £1m a year on expanding No 10’s social media operation, The i Paper can reveal, as the Prime Minister tries to connect with audiences on TikTok and Instagram.
Here’s where that money is going.
Where do the figures come from?
The Cabinet Office advertised 13 roles in July
Lowest salary – £37,922
Social videographer.
Highest salary – £80,342
Head of social and creative production.
Total cost – £1.04m
if everyone is paid the highest band offered, including pensions and national insurance.
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Where is the money going?
What do colleagues think?
Burnham’s dedication to promoting the Government’s work on social media has been celebrated by Labour colleagues, after his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, was criticised for a lack of communication skills while prime minister.
One such Labour MP told The i Paper: “Burnham’s just got that touch when it comes to communication. … We’re getting way more cut-through already.”
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Burnham vs Starmer
- In his first 90 days on TikTok, Starmer received 59.3 million views to Burnham’s 78.1 million.
- Burnham has hit 752,000 Instagram followers since taking office, with his predecessor peaking at 852,000 after two years.
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France artwork heist – multiple pieces stolen from Renoir Museum
Two thieves tried to steal four artworks from a museum dedicated to the impressionist Pierre-Auguste Renoir in southern France on Tuesday, dropping two paintings as they fled the scene.
What we know
Two thieves carried out the raid at the museum in , near Nice, on Tuesday morning, officials have said.
- Wire fencing was cut for access, and museum alarms went off at 5:48am local time, according to the local mayor.
- However, the pair .
Cagnes-sur-Mer’s mayor, Bryan Masson, described the perpetrators as”well equipped” and “well informed” when speaking to the media on Tuesday.
In comments translated from French, he said the thieves “were wearing helmets, gloves, and combat gear” and carried “an electric knife and hacksaw” to cut the fence and gain access to the garden.
Video footage then showed the group cutting through structures holding the paintings’ frames in place before they began their escape, Masson said.
The stolen works
The four works initially targeted in the heist – Portrait of Madame Pichon (1895), Portrait of Madame Colonna Romano (1910), Coco Lisant (1905) and Jeune fille au puits (1886) – were valued together at over £7.7m, according to reports from France.
According to an update from the local mayor’s office later on Tuesday morning, the two pieces the thieves made it out with were: (left above) and Jeune femme au puits (next slide).
Also missing: Jeune fille au puits
- Prior to the robbery, the Renoir Museum was home to 12 paintings by the artist, who died in 1919.
- The museum was opened in 1960, in Renoir’s last home before his death.
- This heist comes less than a year after eight items valued at about £76m were stolen in a daylight robbery from the Louvre in Paris.
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How the King’s pointed letter ‘surprised’ Harry and Meghan
The Duke and Duchess of Sussex were “surprised” by the release of a letter on behalf of King Charles, which clarified their status as “akin to private citizens”, a spokesperson for the couple has said.
Here’s what we know.
No titles, little warning
- A top Buckingham Palace official sent the letter to military officials and Government departments on Monday.
- It stated that as non-working royals, the Sussexes will not use the titles of “His and Her Royal Highness”.
- The couple “were a little surprised not to have been told about this in advance,” their spokesperson said.
- Their team was still seeking guidance when it was released, The i Paper understands.
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No chance for clarification
The Sussexes did not have enough time to clarify any points before the guidance was issued to the media, it is understood.
- The letter’s contents were reportedly shared with their team at 1:59pm.
- Team Sussex replied to Buckingham Palace at 2:19pm, seeking clarification on one or two points.
- The letter was revealed to the media at 3:06pm on Monday.
- Harry was in a meeting and could not be contacted until 3:09pm.
- Team Sussex received confirmation at 3:11pm that the letter had been sent to the media.
Why are the titles important?
The reference to the HRH title was seen as an attempt to slap the Sussexes down amid concerns that the couple may want to monetise their royal status, including via Meghan’s lifestyle products brand, As Ever.
The title was seen in a video Meghan posted accompanying a podcast last year.
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Harry, a ‘private citizen’?
- The letter clarified that “in short, their position is akin to private citizens with commercial and charitable interests”.
- But a friend of the couple previously told The i Paper that Harry, as the King’s son, could never be an entirely private citizen.
- “Some people will say, ‘But they’re private citizens.’ Nonsense. Utter nonsense. They are two of the most high-profile people in the world,” the friend added.
Not a quiet word in your ear, not a private memo; no, this was a formal, blunt statement of fact sent to Harry on his father’s orders. Ouch! There is to be no doubt: the King is not going to be bounced into accepting any change in the Sussexes’ status just because they have chosen to return to the UK.
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No ‘half in, half out’ option
Charles and Prince William are said to be worried that family members doing business deals alongside official duties for the state opens themselves up to the sort of abuse of position accusations facing the King’s brother, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.
- This led to them clarifying that Harry and Meghan won’t be attending state functions or official engagements.
Who will fund the Sussexes’ security?
The couple returned to the country for what they called an extended period on 26 August, after quitting royal duties in 2020. Their children have reportedly been enrolled in English schools.
The row over who will pay for their security is ongoing, with the couple currently paying for it but lobbying the Royal and VIP Executive Committee (Ravec) – which is set to meet this week – for taxpayer-funded police protection.
Watch more from The i Paper
New first-time buyer ISA on the way – here’s what we know
Andy Burnham’s Government is looking at a “new and improved product” to replace the existing Lifetime ISA (LISA), for savers who want to get on the property ladder.
What is a LISA?
- A LISA is an account that allows you to save £4,000 per year tax-free.
- The government tops up the account by 25 per cent a year.
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No upper age limit or penalties
The current LISA only allows savers to withdraw their money when they reach 60 or when buying their first home. You can only open an account before you are 40 and must stop paying in at 50. These restrictions would be abolished under Labour’s plans, with no withdrawal penalties for using the money for alternative means.
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When will it be available?
Consultations on a new LISA closed last month, with Burnham’s team confirming interest in launching the accounts. It could come as soon as the Budget on 28 October.
- Any changes to savings limit, the top-up amount and the price cap on properties you can spend your savings LISA on (currently at £450,000) are yet to be confirmed.
Watch more from The i Paper
UK politics
State pension triple lock could be axed – how to replace it
Andy Burnham is facing growing pressure to scrap the triple lock on state pensions to help repair the nations’ finances.
Here’s how the Government could navigate any journey away from the policy – and what could replace it.
Why might the triple lock be axed?
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) has, for the first time, called on Chancellor John Healey to abandon the policy, under which the state pension rises by whichever is highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent each year.
The BCC argued that replacing it with an inflation-matched raise (a single lock) could save £3.3bn in two years. Currently, the triple lock costs £146bn a year.
Other options to replace triple lock
Smoothed earnings link
Mostly following wage growth but rising with inflation if there’s a temporary price shock.
Double lock
Removing the 2.5 per cent guarantee, rising with the higher of inflation or wages.
People build up credits through work and activities, and retirement age is determined by individual health.
Why is it controversial?
The Labour Party committed to keeping the triple lock in its 2024 manifesto. Going back on this would likely alienate older voters, who are generally more likely to go to the polls in an election than younger generations.
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‘The triple lock has got to go’
There is no longer a financial or moral justification for keeping the triple lock, but scrapping it represents a political risk that no prime minister has felt like taking.
It was only introduced to rebuild the value of the state pension after decades in which it had fallen relative to earnings – not necessarily as a permanent settlement.
The inescapable fact is that most of us are living longer and collecting pensions for longer. Someone has to pay for that, and the bill goes to people of working age.
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The films men ‘secretly enjoy’ watching with their partner
More than a quarter of men enjoy watching romance films with their partner but view it as a “guilty pleasure” they wouldn’t tell anyone about, a new survey shows.
Here are their top choices for movie night.
What films do male partners like?
Though they would not admit to it,
26%
of male partners surveyed said they “secretly enjoy” watching romance films.
Netflix commissioned a poll of more than 2,000 Brits in relationships.
50%
of men see this as a guilty pleasure and would never tell their friends.
Nine in 10 couples said watching these films brings them closer as a couple.
Top ranked films by men
- 1 – 31%
- 2 – 26%
- 3 – 25%
- 4 – 25%
- 5 – 24%
How the baby bust is devastating primary schools
With birth rates falling across the UK, London’s schools and parents are dealing with the consequences.
What is the baby bust?
Dropping birth rate
In England, declining birth rates have led to over 100 schools permanently closing in the last decade.
Fewer pupils
England’s state schools are largely funded according to the number of pupils they teach; when school rolls fall, so does their income.
Unchanged costs
But operational costs do not shrink at the same rate as pupil decline.
Expert opinion
In London, a pupil will attract £6,000 to £7,000, so each pupil you lose is costing you quite a lot
Jon Andrews, head of analysis at the Education Policy Institute, explained that costs will stay the same despite pupil numbers falling because “you’re still needing a teacher in front of that class – and potentially a teaching assistant, too”.
A growing problem
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The Inbetweeners 3 – what we know as Netflix releases teaser
is making a comeback, with Netflix announcing production has begun on a third film.
Reunion incoming
Netflix announced that the cast of the popular E4 sitcom are due to reunite for another raunchy cinematic romp which is “now in production”, according to a new minute-long teaser trailer.
The cast last appeared on the big screen together in 2014’s The Inbetweeners 2, which saw them take a gap year across Australia.
What we know so far…
Continuing the story
It marks a continuation of the popular series, which aired from 2008 to 2010 followed by films in 2011 and 2014.
The gang’s all back
Actors Simon Bird, James Buckley, Blake Harrison and Joe Thomas will reprise their roles as Will, Jay, Neil and Simon.
Creators to direct
creators Damon Beesley and Iain Morris will return to write and direct the film.
Ooh, friends again!
It’s been super-fun hanging out with our friends again, and we’re going to work hard every week to ensure there are no problemos making this new film for humans.
creators Damon Beesley and Iain Morris
‘I’ve struggled to find a goal since The Inbetweeners’
All James Buckley wanted growing up was to be in a well-loved sitcom. That dream gave him direction and purpose. When he was 20, earlier than he’d ever imagined, it came true. The problem is, when your dream comes true so quickly, it’s hard to come up with another.
AfD won 44.5 per cent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, well ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). With 39 seats in the 83-seat regional parliament, AfD are three short of an absolute majority. However, the German political system leans on coalitions. Under normal circumstances, AfD would reach an understanding with one or more of the other five parties which crossed the 5 per cent threshold to be represented.
But these are not normal circumstances. Although the populist ultra-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with its five seats, has previously expressed a willingness to talk to AfD, other parties have long observed what is known as the “firewall”, refusing to negotiate, co-operate or ally with the far-right party.
Now that firewall is under pressure. Merz, who saw the CDU’s vote share halved, will have to decide whether – if the AfD can reach an understanding with BSW or others – he is willing to breach it.
So far, he has made no overtures. Quite the opposite: Merz said he was “deeply shocked” by the result and that his federal government would be watching very carefully, ready to intervene if any AfD local administration “crosses lines”. This is what makes this moment especially exciting for the Kremlin.
AfD has been openly critical of support for Ukraine and wants to resume economic co-operation with Russia. No wonder Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, celebrated the result as an “historic” humiliation for the German political mainstream, having also praised AfD as “the party of hope and reason, co-operation, truth”.
While the scale of AfD’s victory, with 77 per cent turnout, was primarily down to a prevailing sense of dissatisfaction with politics as usual, and a sense that the region had been left behind, it’s clear that Moscow did what it could to help. There is evidence of Russian-backed disinformation campaigns intended to undermine the other parties and exacerbate local discontent.
One particular Russian initiative, code-named Operation Matryoshka, has been especially active, including generating fake posts impersonating German and other media organisations. A study of its activities by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue found that it focused on discrediting mainstream party candidates and the integrity of the electoral process in general.
If AfD does manage to form a local government, whether on a minority basis or in alliance with the BSW – which shares its pro-Moscow and anti-immigration stance – it will have limited practical impact on national policy. The local administration does have considerable authority over local police, education and cultural matters, but it cannot run its own foreign policy, defy federal laws or block aid for Ukraine.
Seeing the AfD take down rainbow flags, urge Ukrainian refugees to leave and defund pro-Kyiv theatrical performances may be satisfying for the Kremlin, but has little practical significance. What is far more important is the impact this will have on national politics, out of proportion with Saxony-Anhalt’s objective weight.
If the mainstream parties in Germany, and Merz in particular, are forced to breach their own firewall and treat the AfD as any other party, it will be a humiliating climbdown for one of Ukraine’s closest allies. It also opens up the prospect of the AfD becoming a serious player on the national level.
The party is currently riding high in the polls, with around 28 per cent, ahead of the CDU’s 20 per cent. Presidential elections will be held in January next year within Germany’s Bundesversammlung, the Federal Convention comprising a mix of national and state parliamentarians. The AfD will not be in a position to elect its own candidate, but this is likely to be a moment of uncertainty and horse-trading. Ignoring the pro-Moscow populists will get harder and harder.
With elections to follow in France in April, where Marine Le Pen’s similarly far-right and Russia-friendly National Rally is heading the field, Putin must be hoping for a populist swing that will shatter the current pro-Kyiv consensus.
Meanwhile, if the mainstream parties in Germany continue to try to freeze the AfD out, the party has made it clear that it will regard it as an affront to democracy. Even the defeated Saxony-Anhalt CDU leader has admitted that the AfD won a mandate in the elections.
Ignoring or disputing this, or creating some ramshackle alliance of other parties, usually at each other’s throats, simply to keep the AfD out, will give the Kremlin’s propagandists plenty of opportunity to do what they do best: highlight and magnify Western hypocrisies, as well as stirring up communities that often feel unheard and marginalised.
Moscow doesn’t expect to win over the mainstream in the West. Instead, it seeks to disrupt it, encouraging the new populist insurgents, from Reform in the UK to the Freedom Party of Austria, while amplifying the genuine disillusions, dissatisfactions and divisions of our times.
From that perspective, AfD’s continued rise is a clear win for Putin. Many in the West will hope it isn’t a harbinger of things to come.