Our global order is deteriorating fast. Authoritarian states are growing bolder, old alliances are being tested and conflicts are multiplying. Most consequentially, America is increasingly going its own way, questioning the alliances and responsibilities that have underwritten Western security for eight decades. Little wonder there are uncomfortable echoes of 1937.
Yet Britain still seems to be in denial. As our Nato allies increase defence budgets, consider the return of national service and prepare seriously for a new era of insecurity, the UK remains dangerously exposed.
That complacency may soon be tested if Vladimir Putin makes good on his threats of retaliation after Ukraine sent a volley of UK-built drones deep inside Russia, striking critical national infrastructure including oil depots. These long-range strikes do not simply escalate the war. They shatter the fiction Putin sells his people: that his “special military operation” is proceeding according to plan and, crucially, that Mother Russia remains insulated from the war he started. Putin has just recalled his ambassador from London, too often a signal that the Kremlin is up to something. The head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, was even dispatched on a surprise trip to Moscow this week to warn Russia against attacking Nato.
Top Gear to return to BBC – everything we know
The BBC has confirmed is returning to the broadcaster. The show has been on hiatus since presenter Andrew “Freddie” Flintoff was almost killed during filming in December 2022.
What we know so far
The BBC’s director of entertainment Ed Havard confirmed the news of the return at the Edinburgh TV Festival on Thursday. He said: “There has been a lot of speculation about this and we can confirm that is coming back.”
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What happened to Flintoff?
Following the crash, the BBC announced would not be returning “for the foreseeable future”, explaining it had “decided to rest the UK show”.
Who will host now?
- Havard declined to comment on reports that Jimmy Carr is being lined up as the show’s new host.
- However, reports claim talks are underway with the comedian.
- Joe Marler, a former rugby player who appeared in last year, is also being eyed by the BBC, according to Deadline.
- No deals are thought to be in place.
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The back story
- It enjoyed a second life when Chris Harris, Paddy McGuinness and Flintoff took over hosting duties from Matt LeBlanc and Chris Evans, before the crash involving Flintoff occurred.
Liver disease cases linked to obesity up five-fold
Cases of a linked to obesity and type 2 diabetes have risen five-fold in a decade, a study has found.
Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) happens when in the liver and is left undiagnosed, researchers said.
What are the symptoms?
- Symptoms include feeling very tired or generally unwell, and pain in the abdomen.
- People who are overweight or not active are more likely to develop MASLD.
- Those who have type 2 diabetes, are over 50, or have high blood pressure are also more at risk.
- New diagnoses doubled from 2012 to 2022, and those diagnosed with the condition were three times as likely to have type 2 diabetes, analysis of GP records found.
A closer look at the findings
The study by researchers at Queen Mary University of London and the University of Glasgow found that 2.4 per cent of adults – 283,762 people had the disease in 2022, up from 0.02 per cent (1,300 people) in 2003.
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The expert view
The diagnostic gap remains large compared to expected rates. At-risk groups such as those living with type 2 diabetes and obesity should be identified and -finding actively pursued
researchers at Queen Mary University and University Glasgow
More on health from The i Paper
Thunderstorms expected across England and Wales
Flooding has hit part of the West Midlands as are expected across large areas of England and Wales.
A yellow thunderstorm has been issued from 5am until 10pm on Thursday.
What the warning says
The yellow warning covers swathes of the country, from Norwich and London to Cardiff and Manchester.
Some areas could see 50-75mm of rainfall on Thursday, as well as lightning and hail, which could cause disruption.
Warm temperatures with highs of 27°C or 28°C are expected, and there is a small chance some areas could see more than 75mm of rainfall.
Where the warning is in place
What happened in Birmingham?
There has been significant flooding in Birmingham. A flood warning was issued for the Perry Barr area on Wednesday night due to rising river levels.
The Environment Agency has issued 22 flooding alerts – meaning flooding is possible – in the Midlands and South East.
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The forecast for the rest of the week
- Further heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected on Friday across the UK.
- Further rain will move in on Saturday, followed by a mix of sunshine and showers on Sunday and Monday.
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Dozens of Britons missing in deadly Nepal flood
More than 160 people have died and hundreds are missing, including , after a devastating flash flood on the Nepal–Tibet border.
What happened?
- Floodwater swept along the Bhote Koshi river in Rasuwa region, in the Himalayas, at around 8.30am local time on Wednesday, destroying roads and washing away houses and bridges.
- More than 40 people were injured in the tragedy and are receiving treatment in hospital.
- Nepali officials said a further 826 people are missing, the majority of them tourists, including 33 Britons.
- Around 2,000 military personnel have been deployed by the Nepali army to assist with search and rescue operations.
What is known about the missing Britons?
Among the 33 Britons missing, 12 were with one tour company. Ram Kumar Adhikari, manager of Alpine Eco Trek, said the group included a 13-year-old girl, with the oldest member aged 65.
He said they had passed Chinese border controls to enter Tibet.
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The flood in pictures
Plug-in solar panels go on sale – what you need to know
New rules mean that people can now buy plug-in solar panels online and in shops.
Retailers will begin selling them from Thursday, meaning solar power can run into the home network using an ordinary plug.
What you need to know
A kit can produce up to 800W of power, enough to generate up to 20 per cent of an average home’s electricity, officials say.
This should equate to savings of around £110 annually on bills. As they appear on shelves, ministers say prices could start off higher, but they expect them to average out at around £400-£600.
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Who will sell them?
Argos has confirmed it will sell the kits from Thursday and Amazon is expected to follow suit soon.
Other retailers, including Currys, B&Q, Screwfix and Wickes have committed to stocking the plug-in panels.
Why are they only on sale now?
The sale of the technology was previously restricted because of safety and wiring standards.
The legal change follows rigorous, independent safety checks which show the panels are safe, according to officials.
Can everyone have one?
It depends on your property and its rules. You may still require consent from landlords, building owners, councils, freeholders, planning permission or listed building consent.
- Officials have advised people to check if any permissions are required for their home before buying or installing the techology.
The young Maga women whitewashing Trump’s presidency
The make-up of Donald Trump‘s inner circle has come under scrutiny after US Senator Jon Ossoff remarked on the President’s close relationship with his executive assistant, Natalie Harp.
The episode has highlighted how Trump has surrounded himself with young, perfectly groomed Maga women in the White House.
Leavitt has been perhaps the most prominent of these women as White House press secretary. She recently announced she would step down at the end of August to focus on her family.
- Upon her appointment to the post, she became known for her combative style, quick thinking and pushing false claims. She was often described a Trump’s “attack dog”.
Martin, communications adviser and special assistant to Trump, has been tipped as a possible replacement for Leavitt. She is the President’s leading content creator, often posting photo dumps and reels of events she has attended with Trump.
She was accused of “whitewashing and sanitising” Trump’s Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin by Azza Cohen, Kamala Harris’s official White House videographer.
Kelly is also in the running to replace Leavitt, who she has worked under as White House deputy press secretary.
The 29-year-old is a former beauty queen with a master’s in political management, and has followed Leavitt in attacking journalists and defending Trump.
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The President and Harp have a very close working relationship.
She also reportedly left him notes saying, “you are all that matters to me” and, “I want to bring you joy”.
A closer look at Ossoff’s comments
Ossoff made his comments after it emerged that Harp was one of the few aides who went with the President when he secretly switched planes after a Nato summit in Turkey last month, because of a possible Iranian threat.
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Mpox arrives in new countries – how worried should you be?
Since 2022, there have been nearly 190,000 lab-confirmed cases of mpox, but a fresh outbreak in the small West-African nation of Guinea-Bissau means the virus is back on the global agenda.
What we know about the new outbreak
Cases had not been reported in Guinea-Bissau before the latest outbreak, with 23 of the 46 reported cases being children under the age of 15.
The confirmed cases do not appear to be linked, suggesting the virus is circulating more widely and there are unidentified cases.
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Why is it spreading?
In the last major global outbreak in 2022, mpox appeared to undergo changes which meant it spread more efficiently from person to person, passing via close contact.
- This more infectious version of the disease means that it spreads more easily in places like West Africa as there are areas where many people live closely together, such as refugee camps.
Vaccines and treatments
The WHO recommends two vaccines, but the issue of availability is particularly pressing in poorer nations.
A new global stockpile is set to be launched within weeks, meaning vaccines can be deployed more quickly to stop outbreaks.
But they do not stop outbreaks alone, with experts calling for better contact tracing, early detection, strong public health surveillance and supportive care.
London is sharing top-secret cruise missile blueprints with Kyiv while gaining access to a gold mine of sensitive battlefield data offering invaluable insight into how Russia fights.
This has not escaped the notice of the Kremlin. To understand what may come next, we should consider Putin’s view of Russia itself. From Ivan the Terrible to Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, Russia has long been ruled from the centre by strong authoritarian figures. Its vastness, as the largest country on Earth, sprawling across 11 time zones, has always been difficult to defend. The best form of defence? Attack. Rulers repeatedly sought security through strength, strategic depth and expansion. Putin has wrapped himself in that history and, still angry at the fall of the Soviet Union, is determined to rekindle Russian influence across Eastern Europe.
Ukraine’s determination to escape that sphere therefore represents more than a military problem. It challenges Putin’s entire world view. It’s therefore right we stand tall with Ukraine and do not blink. But make no mistake: we are now in Putin’s crosshairs and, if we are honest, unprepared for the escalation in grey-zone warfare he may unleash.
Britain can be proud of our support to date. Andy Burnham’s visit to Kyiv continues the leadership established at the start of the war under Boris Johnson and then-defence secretary Ben Wallace. When others hesitated, Britain understood that Putin would interpret hesitation not as restraint, but weakness. We provided vital weapons and ammunition that helped Ukraine fend off a Russian takeover.
But the strategic landscape is changing. For eight decades, Europe has operated beneath an American security umbrella. From Nato to protecting sea lanes and deterring Russia, Washington has been the ultimate guarantor of the Western-led international order. Donald Trump is challenging that assumption.
His “America First” approach asks why Washington should continue carrying such a disproportionate share of Europe’s defence burden. At the same time, old dividing lines are shifting. Moscow’s relationship with Pyongyang has deepened dramatically, with North Korea supplying troops, missiles and ammunition to Russia.
Europe confronts an uncomfortable possibility: an increasingly aggressive Russia just as America becomes less willing to underwrite European security. And our actions will come with consequences for which we are unprepared.
Putin does not need to send bombers over London or tanks towards the Channel to hurt us. Russia is already waging grey-zone war against us. It may be about to move up several gears.
We have seen Novichok deployed on British streets. Russian-linked cyber operations have targeted Western institutions and infrastructure. Russian vessels have gathered intelligence around the undersea cables and pipelines upon which our economy depends. Russian warships are routinely shadowed through the English Channel.
Conflict is no longer confined to distant conventional battlefields. Britain’s electricity grid, ports, satellites, telecommunications networks, financial system, water infrastructure and supply chains are all potential pressure points. And unlike a conventional missile strike, grey-zone attacks offer something Putin prizes: deniability.
A cable mysteriously breaks. A hospital network goes offline. GPS signals are disrupted. A company’s systems suddenly collapse. Disinformation spreads online. Another hostile vessel appears close to critical infrastructure.
Individually, each can be explained away. Collectively, they can weaken an adversary without crossing the threshold that would trigger a conventional military response. The devastating Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack – the most expensive in UK history, causing an estimated £1.9bn damage to the economy – illustrated the wider lesson: a single digital strike can inflict enormous damage without a shot being fired.
This is where Britain’s defence debate is dangerously outdated. We still separate economic policy from national security, as though one belongs to the Treasury and the other to the Ministry of Defence. In grey-zone warfare, that distinction disappears. An economy unable to withstand sustained disruption is a national security vulnerability.
That’s the warning for Burnham. He has made a litany of expensive domestic promises but said far less about strengthening our defences, particularly homeland resilience.
As Britain helps Ukraine take the fight deeper into Russia, we should expect Putin to retaliate. Not necessarily with missiles or soldiers, but by going lower: dirty, deniable and directed at our weakest seams.
That is not an argument for abandoning Ukraine. Quite the opposite. If threats of Russian retaliation intimidate Britain into retreat, Putin has already won. But courage abroad must be matched by resilience at home. Backing Ukraine is right. Leaving Britain dangerously exposed is not. In this darker era, economic security is national security.
We must prepare Britain for Putin’s revenge.
Tobias Ellwood is the author of Ten Steps to Prevent World War Three