Anyone following warnings of “Russian escalation” in recent weeks could be forgiven for being thoroughly confused. On the one hand, the reports of new and alarming Russian plots come thick and fast – Spanish media last week reported possible use of Vladimir Putin’s “shadow fleet” to launch attack drones against Southern Europe.
On the other hand, some of the countries that might seem most at risk from Russian attack, frontline states including Finland and Estonia, are urging calm and saying there is no immediate cause for greater concern.
The mixed picture is in part because of the wide range of choices Russia has if it does continue stepping up its campaign against Europe.
Avanti West Coast trains to be nationalised
The Transport Secretary said the operator has been underperforming “for years” as it becomes the latest service to be brought back into public ownership.
Andy Burnham said the service had failed people “time and time again” with cancellations and overcrowding.
What you need to know
- Avanti West Coast train services will be nationalised from March 2027, when its contract ends.
- Its London hub is Euston station, with services running to Wales, Manchester, Liverpool, Blackpool and Scotland.
- All train services under Department for Transport contracts, including Avanti, are in the process of being transferred to public ownership.
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Reactions from the sector
“For years, we’ve heard stories of Avanti underperforming, with passengers left paying the price. Enough is enough,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.
Conversely, Andy Mellors, managing director at Avanti West Coast, said: “We’re proud of what we’ve achieved over the last six years – from refurbishing our Pendolino fleet and introducing our new Evero trains to running more services than ever before.”
The results for customers
- Labour claims nationalisation will mean fewer delays and cancellations.
- This is thanks to a £10m investment in power and signalling maintenance, faster and more reliable services, upgraded facilities at Euston, and more stable internet connection on board trains.
Several rail firms around the country are already publicly owned, including Great Anglia and South Western Railway.
Chess prodigy, 11, becomes youngest woman grandmaster
A London schoolgirl has made history while representing England at the 46th Chess Olympiad in Uzbekistan.
Former chancellor, Rachel Reeves, called the young player “a chess superstar”.
Play by play account
Bodhana Sivanandan scored eight points across 11 games, qualifying for the title of woman grandmaster.
The International Chess Federation confirmed this performance made her the youngest person to gain the lifelong title.
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What makes a champion?
Neither of Sivanandan’s parents are good at chess. She taught herself to play during lockdown using YouTube tutorials.
She entered her first tournament at Harrow Chess Club in 2021.
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After she won the British Women’s Championship earlier this year, she said: “I want to become a [full] grandmaster as soon as possible.”
- She now has two of the three “norms” required to become an International Master, the next rank up on the path to becoming a grandmaster.
Women and child die attempting to cross Channel
A 10-year-old child and two women in their 30s have died just off the coast of France, near Calais.
Andy Burnham’s spokesman said the tragedy was a “stark reminder of the dangers posed by criminal gangs”.
What you need to know
- French authorities rescued 102 people from a dinghy which had left Bleriot Plage.
- At least 17 people, including children, have now died attempting to cross the Channel this year.
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The timeline of events
What happened this morning and when:
- The dinghy pushed off from Bleriot Plage, near Calais, on Monday morning.
- French maritime police received a distress call after the boat got into trouble in the water.
- A rescue ship and Navy helicopter were sent to the scene with a medical team.
- The emergency responders were unable to save the child and two women.
- French officials said the deaths were likely due to crushing rather than drowning, due to overcrowding on the boat.
The official response
The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said: “We’re deeply saddened to hear about the deaths in France today.
“It is a stark reminder of the dangers posed by the criminal gangs who exploit vulnerable people for profit, and we will continue to work relentlessly.”
An investigation has been opened into the incident.
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What we know so far about RAF Fairford ‘bomb plot’
Five men were arrested on terror charges and villagers evacuated from their homes after a major incident was declared near the RAF Fairford airbase used by the US Air Force.
Aerial footage showed a bomb disposal robot inspecting three white vans in the area.
What are they accused of?
- The men were initially arrested on suspicion of Explosives Act offences.
- Police were called out to three suspicious vans heading towards the airbase in Gloucestershire at 12.45am on Sunday.
- The five men were later further arrested on suspicion of the preparation of a terrorist act, with counter-terrorism policing officers now leading the investigation.
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How were they caught?
A local farmer spotted the seemingly abandoned white vans blocking a quiet country road a few hundred metres from RAF Fairford when driving home from a party.
The farmer told she saw a group of “young” men, some wearing “masks or balaclavas”, running into the trees and across fields towards the airbase. She called the police and warned neighbours to lock their doors.
RAF Fairford’s links to Iran war
A senior Western intelligence source told The i Paper the assumption is that those involved in this incident are likely to be proxies for a hostile state. Iran is understood to be the leading suspect.
- The US Air Force has used RAF Fairford to carry out bombing missions against Iran in a bid to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- In July, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) warned against allowing US bombers to fly from British bases, saying such sites would be legitimate targets.
- A UK Government spokesperson said at the time: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad.”
- Inquiries have yet to rule out Russia or even domestic activity.
What did the police say?
I can’t go into details, but I can give reassurance that we believe the matter to be contained and as a set of agencies working together across Gloucestershire, we are gathering and responding to local intelligence all the time.
Gloucestershire Police temporary Chief Constable, Maggie Blyth.
How puzzles may ‘reduce age-related cognitive decline’
Researchers found memory, logic and reasoning puzzles with advice on diet and exercise, can help improve thinking and memory problems.
How the study works
- The study examined people aged 60-85 with low cognitive scores.
- They were split into three groups. One group was given evidence-based advice on diet.
- The second used a website called Active Brains, which provides cognitive exercises in the form of puzzles.
- The third group were directed to the same website and also given “brief support” with a nurse.
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The study’s findings
- After 12 months, all groups showed improvement in their cognitive scores and a significant proportion no longer met the criteria for age-related cognitive decline.
- 28 per cent of people who were given simple lifestyle advice were no longer deemed to have cognitive decline.
- This increased to 33 per cent of those directed to the website and 32 per cent of those directed to the website and given additional support.
- Among those directed to the website and given additional support, there was an 18 per cent reduction in severe cognitive impairment compared to those who were just given advice, researchers found.
Hear from the researchers
Professor Paul Little, co-lead of the study, said: “These are really exciting findings that people can easily take on board.
“Simple messages and simple things that people can do really make a difference – and the NHS does not need to spend a lot of money.”
He added the research team was “surprised” by the cognitive improvement seen among people just given “brief advice”.
What do the experts say?
Experts said the study was “encouraging”, but added some caveats.
Dr Richard Oakley from the Alzheimer’s Society said: “People should not take this study to mean that doing puzzles can reverse dementia or improve symptoms for everyone living with memory problems.”
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Sycamore Gap stump shows new shoots three years after felling
Three years after it was illegally felled, photos show a thick ring of new shoots around the stump of the sycamore tree made famous by 1991’s Robin Hood Prince of Thieves.
What happened to it?
The tree, which was planted in the late 1800s in Northumberland, was illegally felled in September 2023 by Daniel Graham and Adam Carruthers, causing national outcry.
In 2025, the pair were jailed for four years and three months for criminal damage for cutting down the iconic tree with a chainsaw.
Slow recovery starts to show
Now, the National Trust, which operates the site at Hadrian’s Wall, has revealed the stump has shown new growth.
Since it was felled, the remaining stump has been protected by a barrier, allowing nature to take its course and new green shoots to spring up.
Promising signs
These flourishing shoots are really encouraging and show that the special measures we’ve taken, including reducing soil compaction around the roots and limiting human disturbance, are paying off.
Andrew Poad, general manager for the National Trust at Hadrian’s Wall
How triple lock could be axed to pay for national care service
Andy Burnham’s plan to put free social care in Labour’s next general election manifesto could be part of a grand bargain to drop the state pension triple lock, Labour MPs believe.
What you need to know
- A Labour MP told The i Paper that introducing the NHS-style care service would be a “politically smart” way to “sugar the pill” of finally scrapping the lock
- On Sunday, the PM kicked off Labour’s conference in Liverpool by vowing to put forward a plan to voters at the next election in which “everyone contributes, everyone is covered” for social care.
- In private, many MPs across the political spectrum confide that the lock is fundamentally unsustainable over the long term.
Figures chime in
The think-tank said an Australian-style system would deliver savings of about £650m by 2030.
The ex-cabinet minister said getting rid of the triple lock is “an option that the Government should consider”.
The junior minister suggested tax rises would be needed to fund the policy, saying it “isn’t going to be cheap”.
A word of warning
A backbencher cautioned that Burnham would have to tread carefully. “We will need to try and secure a cross-party consensus on adult social care,” they said.
Back in 2017, Theresa May proposed replacing the triple lock with a “double lock”. The policy was dubbed a “dementia tax” and the Tories subsequently lost their majority.
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Actions such as a land incursion into a frontline state in the Baltic Sea region, or a drone and missile attack on Poland, would be indistinguishable from Russia launching open warfare on its neighbours.
But Russia could also develop its more furtive programme of attacks across the rest of Europe, targeting countries including France, Italy and Britain with actions that are closer in nature to low-grade state terrorism.
The picture painted in the media is as vague as it is alarming.
There’s no doubt that Russia is willing to conduct more and more dangerous attacks against countries in the Mediterranean and beyond. That’s a process that has been evolving over years, as Russia finds that it can act more and more provocatively without – it seems – any discernible reaction from European nations that would cause it to stop. When people start talking about Russian sabotage and murder as a new problem, I point them to the book I wrote five years ago about Moscow’s campaigns across Europe in the previous decade.
The shadow fleet drone plot serves as a case study. The Spanish newspaper described at length Russian plans to mount Gerbera attack drones in containers on vessels belonging to its illegal fleet of tankers, to launch them against France, Spain and Italy.
Gerberas have been used in Russia’s offensive against Ukraine. They have a lighter payload than the jet-powered Gerans that have been causing increasing headaches for Ukrainian defenders – but still carry enough explosives to pose a serious threat to European infrastructure, and trigger disruption in countries that had previously considered themselves far enough away from the front line not to be affected by Russia’s war.
The plot was disclosed following what’s been widely described as a warning to those countries from the CIA, although both France and Italy denied receiving any specific warning from the US.
And there have already been plenty of other demonstrations that Russia feels emboldened to carry out more and more dangerous and provocative attacks deep into Europe.
This month, French President Emmanuel Macron called leaders from across the political spectrum into the country’s crisis centre for a briefing on Russian threats that reportedly left even the most sceptical pale and shaken.
That may be precisely because they had previously imagined that lying at the far end of Europe from Russia, France was not in immediate danger. But that overlooks Russia’s long-term investment in delivering damage at enormous distances, not only by means of drones from ships, or missiles with ranges of thousands of kilometres, but also through cyber and proxy attacks. That investment means Russia has the option of striking not just at those parts of Nato that it can drive to, but at the weakest, softest parts of the alliance to undermine it as a whole – exactly the premise of Sky TV’s constructed reality series , which saw shocked former British politicians realising just what this meant for the UK.
Explaining what is going on to the public, in a way that leaves them alert but not terrified, is challenging – in part because of this wide range of options Russia can choose from. The question “will Russia attack” is unhelpful because the word “attack” can mean everything from a barely conceivable, full-blown invasion of a Nato country, to what is already happening, like sponsoring more and bigger proxy and cyber attacks far behind the front lines.
That’s why it’s vital to separate the two. Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service has publicly released its assessment that there are no signs Russia is preparing for an “invasion” of another neighbour, but that the risk of some other form of military attack is “low but growing”.
The report also tackles the important question of why Russia would want to do this. One widely quoted motivation for Moscow to target European countries is to deter citizens and politicians from supporting Ukraine. If that’s true, the best response will be to increase assistance to Kyiv – thereby not only helping to keep Ukrainians alive, but also demonstrating to Moscow that its attacks on Europe defeat its objective.
Whatever the reasons, it’s more vital than ever for civilians in the UK and Europe to be aware of the threat – and by being alert to it, do their part in countering it. Sunday morning’s arrests in a small village near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, with the involvement of counter-terrorism police and explosives experts, show the threat of hostile action in the UK is real.
It’s not yet clear who instigated that plot, but the range of possible actors is alarmingly broad – both Russia and Iran, as well as homegrown far-left extremists – all have motivations for targeting or disrupting American operations from Fairford. Counter-terror police are understood to be investigating whether Iran is linked. Tehran has threatened to target military bases in the UK after US warplanes took off from these sites to strike Iran earlier this year. However, inquiries have yet to rule out Russian or domestic activity.
We are now in a more dangerous world, whether we like it or not, and the best way to counter threats like “Russian escalation” is to deter them in advance, and be ready for them if deterrence fails. That must be a key part of the “national conversation on defence” that the Government is supposed to have started. As yet, there’s no visible sign of it having done so – but both the Mediterranean drone plot and Sunday’s arrests near Fairford show how urgent and vital it is to help European publics understand that home defence involves them all.