Mounting casualties. Fuel shortages. Explosions in warehouses and oil ports.

For years, Moscow had successfully insulated its population from its invasion of Ukraine. But now, the war is coming home to Russia.

Western officials have told The i Paper the war has “unquestionably escalated” in recent months, with Ukrainian drones hitting targets deep inside Russia.

Strikes on the warehouses of leading ecommerce companies Wildberries and Ozon have killed Russian citizens and sent plumes of black smoke billowing through Russian skies, triggering rare public dissent against the regime as traders share videos in tears at the loss of their businesses.

The public outcry – and concerns about the videos helping Ukrainian intelligence analysts – has led to further crackdown in freedom of information in Russia, including a ban on warehouse employees bringing smartphones to work and continued, unpopular limitations on the internet.

Russian economy teeters

The Russian economy is also under pressure, though a range of private and public sector analysts believe it is not yet enough to force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to change course in the war.

In July, the Russian central bank revised its growth forecast down to between zero and 1 per cent and said it now expects faster inflation as a result of soaring fuel prices, while the Russian budget deficit has already dramatically exceeded its annual target.

Russian refined oil sales, which provide a financial lifeline for the invasion and wider Russian economy, are also down, dropping to around four million barrels per day from around 5.5 million before the war.

“Ukrainian attacks on vessels and loading terminals in the Azov and Black Sea basin have halted Azov Sea shipping and cut the volume of Russian commodities – oil, grain, fertilisers, and others – shipped via the Black Sea,” the global advisory firm Oxford Economics said.

“They’re exacerbating the impact of the ongoing strikes on Russian refineries on oil exports.

“Ukrainian drone attacks will weigh on activity through many channels, including lower output or closure of small and medium businesses selling their goods via online retailers, transportation delays due to petrol rationing, disruption to supply chains, and lower consumer and business confidence.”

Food inflation is also rising as a result of increased transportation costs due to higher petrol prices.

The disruption is not likely to lift anytime soon. Oxford Economics has cut its 2027 forecast for Russia by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1 per cent as a result of the “worsening fuel crisis and increasing damage to infrastructure and logistics from Ukrainian drone attacks”.

However, the war in Iran is helping the Russian mark-up on its exports.

“Higher global oil prices have boosted the budget and allowed the government to begin replenishing its sovereign fund, reducing its fiscal incentive to end the war,” the economists said. “Russia still has sufficient fiscal and political resilience to continue its current strategy.”

Russia losing ‘more troops than it can recruit’

The defence industry in Russia has been at maximum capacity for a long time as it seeks to produce enough equipment and weaponry to sustain troops in Ukraine, and Moscow is now having to direct scarce air defence capabilities to cover key fuel and defence industrial warehouses, The i Paper understands.

Russia is still, however, able to hit Ukraine hard, with dozens killed in a strike on a Kyiv ammunition depot this weekend and 27 alerts recorded in Ukraine since Thursday lasting over 30 hours.

Russia is also facing new pressure on the battlefield. In the last two months, Moscow has begun losing more casualties than it is able to make up with new recruits, Western officials revealed on Friday, by around 6,000 monthly.

To date, around half a million Russians have died on the battlefields of Ukraine, according to British intelligence service GCHQ.

Previously, Russia was able to refill its ranks, or even exceed its casualties, through the recruitment of new soldiers, and is still recruiting around 1,000 new personnel each month.

But as battlefield casualty figures soar, it has turned to stealth mobilisation to drive up recruitment, focusing on recruiting conscripts, those awaiting trial, in debt or falling behind at university.

“Progress remains glacial and casualties high,” one Western official said.

As recruitment slumps, there have long been rumours of another round of mass mobilisation in Russia – a deeply unpopular measure in which ordinary citizens are called up to fight.

This does not appear to be imminent, Western intelligence indicates, in part because winter is looming when attacks tend to reduce, the labour market is already tight, and there aren’t necessarily enough officers or equipment to support a wave of new recruits.

Internal political pressure on Putin

However, Russian authorities appear to be laying the groundwork with administrative preparations to make mass mobilisation possible if needed, The i Paper understands.

Oxford Economics also recently assessed that there is a higher likelihood of unpopular measures such as an increased military draft.

As a result of the attacks, internal political pressure on Putin is rising, and Western intelligence suggests it is possible that authorities introduce greater repression on ordinary citizens.

While the reach of state control means they should be taken with a pinch of salt, polls commissioned by the Russian government and shared publicly are also starting to reflect this change in public opinion. There has been a steady slide in Putin’s approval ratings over the last six months coinciding with a marked increase in expressions of public angst.

Polls cited by Oxford Economics this summer show an increasing number of Russians describing themselves as “worried”, with the number exceeding those saying “calm” for the first time since 2022.

And there are suggestions that this dissatisfaction could be reaching Putin’s elites.

Kaupo Rosin, director of Estonia’s intelligence service, suggested that as the Kremlin tries to raise crucial funds, it will be forced to consider tax increases or asking oligarchs and companies to contribute to the state budget, “creating an additional reason for internal discontent and internal pressure”.

“We see that overall unhappiness levels with this war are increasing in all echelons of society, starting from normal people and throughout, up to the oligarchs,” he told .

“More and more people do not want this war. The question is: what impact does this have on his [Putin’s] decision-making?”

Rosin said that while he “does not see a street revolution” happening in Russia any time soon, dissent is growing.

“More important is what people who have access to money, weapons and information – what do they think? In these circles, there is no more talk about total victory. People are discussing different scenarios, and mainly how to end this [war] in a proper way.”

“If something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised. “It will be an overnight thing, if it ever happens.”