Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are among four Reform MPs who would lose their seats if a general election were held tomorrow, fresh polling by YouGov shows.
Tory defector Danny Kruger and Sarah Pochin – who beat Labour in a 2025 by-election – would also be unseated, according to the leading UK pollster’s first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became prime minister.
Reform’s leader Nigel Farage would hold onto Clacton with a 47 per cent majority, while the party’s MP for Romford, Andrew Rosindell – another defector – would keep his seat in a loss for the Tories.
Could drinking in the stands be coming back?
Andy Burnham has described laws which prevent drinking alcohol in view of the pitch at football stadiums as “discrimination” and suggested a change could be trialled.
PM says football fans ‘singled out’
The Prime Minister told reporters: “I don’t think it’s fair for football fans to be singled out.”
The Football Supporters’ Association (FSA) said the “outdated” legislation should be reviewed, while police chiefs have urged against relaxing the law and want to meet Burnham to “explain the challenges”.
Why the ban was brought in
The law was first brought in in 1985 for English and Welsh football grounds under Margaret Thatcher’s government.
- At the time, then-home secretary Leon Brittan said that alcohol was a “major contributory factor in violent and disorderly behaviour” at football matches.
Not an official policy
The BBC reported that Government sources said Burnham was giving an opinion he has long held, rather than making an official policy announcement.
The Government is not taking the PM’s comments as a sign that he is looking to change the law.
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Changes could make policing harder
A UK Football Policing Unit (UKFPU) spokesman said changes could pose “challenges” to policing.
“Other sports simply don’t see the violence and criminal behaviour from their supporters that football does, albeit a minority, with alcohol often playing a significant part in violent and disorderly behaviour,” he added.
AI hacks Australian government – what to know
The Australian government has revealed that an autonomous AI agent hacked a government website in what may be the first known incident of its kind.
A research task gone wrong
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters in New York yesterday that the AI agent, which was developed by OpenAI, was carrying out a research task on health and medical statistics when it accessed both public and non-public health data.
- Australia’s deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, said that as part of its research, it approached the Medicare portal for information, but when it was denied, it hacked the portal to get the information anyway.
OpenAI slow to inform Australian government
Albanese said the AI company had taken “way too long” to inform the Australian government about what had happened, with it only being made aware on 10 September. The incident occurred in June.
OpenAI says it is still investigating, but found no evidence that patient records had been accessed and remains “committed to transparency”.
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Albanese calls for ‘urgent global guard-rails’
The announcement came less than a day after the Australian PM co-signed a joint statement with 21 other countries, including Germany, Spain and Canada, pressing for “urgent global guard-rails” on frontier AI models, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Channel migrants set to be processed in ex-Navy sea fort near Portsmouth
A former military sea fort could be converted into a processing site for small boat arrivals in Hampshire as migrants make more dangerous journeys across the English Channel to reach the UK.
What to know
The i Paper understands the Government has prepared contingency proposals to deal with arrivals further down the South Coast from Kent.
No final decision has been made by the Government on converting Fort Blockhouse in Gosport, near Portsmouth. It is also understood it would be a temporary facility.
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Anti-asylum protests
An aborted attempt to use Fort Blockhouse to land 50 asylum seekers sparked protests in the town on Tuesday. Police were forced to protect coaches carrying asylum seekers after hundreds of anti-migrant protesters massed at the site.
- Six arrests were made. Police are also “conducting enquiries” after far-right activist Daniel Thomas filmed himself slashing the side of a dinghy with a rescue crew member still on board.
Criticism of the plans
- Zoe Huggins, Conservative leader of Gosport Borough Council, described the fort as unsafe and logistically not viable.
- She said that access on and off the peninsula by two narrow roads created an “easy target” for protesters to blockade coaches transporting migrants, as happened in the Portsmouth riots earlier this month.
- Huggins said that they had heard about the plans through “informal channels”, adding: “It is outrageous that Government can review arrangements like this without talking to the local council.”
The Government response
A public planning inquiry into the proposals is due to be held after Gosport Borough Council and Caroline Dinenage, Conservative MP for Gosport, called for greater transparency from ministers.
A Government spokesperson said: “The Border Security Command works around the clock to protect our border and will continue to detain, check and process every small boat arrival.”
The nine doomsday essentials you will be officially told to stockpile at home
People will be advised to stockpile a number of items to prepare for war or other emergencies as part of the UK government’s biggest public awareness campaign for decades.
Why you should make an emergency stockpile
While there is no new or imminent threat to Britain from war, the ongoing “grey-zone” activity by Russia, the biggest El Niño weather event for centuries and the risk of an AI-linked accidental power cut, have all raised concerns the British public should be better prepared.
Here are the nine items in the Government’s suggested emergency stockpile list.
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Torches, power banks and radios
Battery or wind-up torch
It is recommended to get a torch as they are safer than candles.
Portable power bank
For charging your mobile phone in a power cut.
Battery or wind-up radio
To get updates during a power breakdown – a car radio can be used, but in severe weather it might be safer to stay inside.
Batteries, first aid kits and hand sanitiser
Spare batteries
For torches and radio and a backup battery for any medical equipment you rely on.
A first aid kit
This should contain items like waterproof plasters, bandages, a thermometer and antiseptic.
For hygiene purposes when the water is off.
Bottled water, non-perishable food and baby supplies
Bottled water
A minimum of 2.5-3 litres of drinking water per person per day is recommended by the World Health Organisation for survival.
Non-perishable food
This shouldn’t need to be cooked. Remember food for your pets and a tin opener.
Baby supplies
Make sure you have nappies and baby formula.
Judge overturns Trump’s White House media ban
A court has issued a temporary restraining order against Donald Trump’s banning of three news organisations from the White House press pool.
The context
CNN, MS Now and must have their access restored for 14 days after a District of Columbia court ruled the move “likely violated their constitutional due process rights”.
- The three media outlets began a legal challenge after their journalists had their White House passes withdrawn. The Trump administration justified the move in court, claiming the organisations published false information and threatened national security.
Why the court overruled Trump
Judge Timothy Kelly ruled the outlets were “likely to succeed” in proving the White House had not exercised “adequate due process” in enforcing the ban.
- Kelly cast doubt on the administration’s arguments that the bans were for national security as Trump did not mention this in his original announcement.
- He also pointed out that “in most cases,” the stories that the Trump administration had taken issue with were written by journalists who “did not even hold card passes”.
- In its original filing, the White House cited statements from officials of the Department of War supporting the ban, but Kelly said they had “no direct knowledge of how reporters operate in the White House, or about any of the facts at issue here”.
The Trump exodus is growing. His allies are running scared
US commentator
With midterm elections a few weeks away, some Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the US President and his unpopular war.
But the party would have fewer seats that the Tories overall, marking a significant fall when compared to last year’s polling.
The MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) poll – a statistical modelling technique that combines a large survey with other sources including census data – also provides more evidence of the “Burnham bounce” which has seen Labour recently climb in the polls.
It predicts that Labour would be the biggest party in a hung Parliament if an election were to be held tomorrow, raising speculation that the next government could be formed by coalition.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey recently ruled out forming a coalition with Reform and dismissed suggestions he could do a deal with the Tories, but stopped short of excluding a coalition with Labour, saying he did not deal in “hypotheticals”.
But to form a Parliamentary majority in this scenario, Burnham would need to work with Davey as well as either the SNP, predicted to win 40 seats, or Plaid Cymru, predicted to win 15.
It comes as Reform is preparing a huge expansion of its operations around the country in a bid to attract voters in areas where it does not have a foothold, including London, the South East, the South West and the East of England.
Analysis of Reform job adverts by The i Paper suggests the party is pumping resources into areas where it wants to keep its high-profile Tory defectors, with five roles advertised in the South East, the home of Braverman’s constituency, and three roles in London, where Rosindell’s seat is.
The YouGov poll projects Braverman’s Fareham and Waterlooville seat would remain Conservative, with the party taking 32 per cent of the vote compared with 25 per cent for Reform.
The Conservatives are also predicted to hold onto Jenrick’s Newark seat, with 37 per cent of the vote, and Kruger’s East Wiltshire seat, with 34 per cent, despite both senior Reform figures defecting away from Kemi Badenoch’s party.
Pochin’s Runcorn and Helsby seat, which was taken from Labour by just six votes in a by-election, would be returned with a 37 per cent majority. The by-election was triggered last year following the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury after he was convicted of assault.
Farage, his deputy leader Richard Tice and party chairman Lee Anderson are all forecast to hold onto their seats, with the poll predicting Reform would win a total of 123.
This is fewer than the 130 MPs predicted for the Tories, meaning the poll will be seen as a huge win for Badenoch – who was on course to win just 45 seats in last year’s forecasts.
The Tories and Reform are now sitting almost neck and neck in the polls, with Farage a far cry from the near majority of 311 seats his party was predicted to win in previous surveys.
The MRP will also be seen as a success for Labour. If replicated, the party’s 241 seats would be a loss of 170 compared to Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide win in 2024 – but a vast improvement on last year’s forecasts, which projected that the party would be reduced to just 144 seats.
The Liberal Democrats are predicted to hold steady on 71 seats – just one fewer than they won in 2024. Meanwhile, the Greens are projected to gain five, taking Zack Polanski’s party to nine, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) would have 40 and Plaid Cymru 15.
Starmer’s former Holborn and St Pancras seat, which Polanski is currently campaigning to win in a by-election on 8 October, is projected to give Labour 44 per cent of the vote compared with just 20 per cent for the Greens.
YouGov surveyed 17,000 people between 23 August and 18 September.