Andy Burnham has told John Swinney that a second Scottish independence referendum remains "off limits" after speculation that he had softened his stance on the issue.

On Wednesday, the prime minister told MPs that both in Scotland and Northern Ireland a border poll would be considered if there was a clear consensus and public opinion had changed.

That prompted Scotland's first minister to write to him, asking for a meeting to discuss how such a mechanism could be enshrined in law.

But in his reply, Burnham said no consensus currently existed and he repeated his view that another referendum was off limits while he focuses on growing the economy and cost of living pressures.

Burnham's letter said Northern Ireland and Scotland have different historical experiences and distinct constitutional arrangements.

He said: "In my remarks I was simply highlighting that there is no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland and nor is there a clear basis to suggest that a majority of people in Northern Ireland presently wish to separate from the United Kingdom."

He said that in 2014, when the previous referendum was held, there was agreement across both the UK and Scottish parliaments that such a vote should be held - but he argued there was no such consensus today.

He also pointed out that Labour's 2024 election manifesto had said the party does not support independence or another referendum.

"As I made clear to you personally when we met recently in Glasgow, independence and a referendum are off limits as it would take our focus away from growing the economy and helping families with the cost of living," he said.

He concluded that he remained keen to work with Swinney and the Scottish government to ensure the UK is "rewired" to work for people.

In his earlier letter, Swinney had welcomed Burnham's House of Commons remarks, claiming they signalled an acceptance that majority support for independence in Scotland should trigger a new referendum.

He interpreted them as a "long-overdue acceptance of the reality that the people of Scotland will decide their own future".

Burnham was responding to a question at Prime Minister's Questions from Dundee SNP MP Chris Law.

Law noted that Burnham had said he would stick 100% to the terms of the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland and noted that the agreement includes a provision on what would trigger a referendum on leaving the UK.

He then asked whether the conditions for initiating a similar referendum in Scotland should also be set out in law.

Burnham replied that the Good Friday Agreement said a border poll "be considered by the Northern Ireland Secretary when there is clear consensus in the country—when public opinion has changed to the point at which the call has to be considered".

He continued: "I would say that it is exactly the same situation in Scotland. I am not aware that there is majority public support for another referendum, and until that changes, there will not be one."

A referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014 saw the country vote to remain part of the UK by a margin of 55% to 45%.

Burnham first made his "off limits" comment when he met Swinney for the first time after becoming prime minister, when he travelled to the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow in July.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said recent opinion polls suggested there is currently a very small majority in favour of independence.

But, given the small margins, any claim that this means Scotland is "likely" to vote to leave the UK is something that would be challenged, he told BBC Radio Scotland Breakfast.

He said it was "probably possible to make a reasonable case" that the probability of a vote for independence is currently greater than zero, but that polling falls far short of suggesting it is "pretty damn certain".

He said there had previously been acknowledgement by some within the nationalist community that a referendum should be held when opinion polls consistently indicate about 60% in favour.

The SNP, when making the case for another referendum, frequently cites the record number of pro-independence MSPs returned to Holyrood in the May election.

Between them the SNP and Scottish Greens ended up with 73 MSPs, increasing the pro-independence majority by one.

However, the proportion of voters who backed pro-independence parties fell significantly to about 41%, down from about 50% in 2021.

"The difficulty is that both sides in the argument can point to evidence to substantiate their case," said Curtice.

David Cameron was the Conservative prime minister who reached an agreement with then SNP leader Alex Salmond that a referendum could be held in 2014.

On the eve of the vote, he declared it was a "once and for all decision" and that there could be "no going back" and "no re-run".

He stuck to that view afterwards, saying the debate had been "settled for a generation"

Salmond had previously spoken of it being a "once in generation, perhaps once in a lifetime opportunity" in his opinion, and had indicated that by "political generation" he meant something like the 18-year gap between previous constitutional referendums.

Salmond's successor as first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, later argued that the 2016 Brexit vote, where the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU while a majority of Scots voted to stay, represented a "material change of circumstances" which put another indyref vote back "on the table".

Cameron resigned after the Brexit vote, replaced by Theresa May, who repeatedly declared that "now is not the time" for another referendum.

One of her arguments was that it was too early because the Scottish people did not yet know what the outcome of leaving the EU would be.

When Boris Johnson entered Number 10 in 2019, he also rejected the call, harking back to the "once in a generation" description of the earlier vote.

During her brief tenure as prime minister in 2022, Liz Truss described Sturgeon as an "attention seeker" who she planned to ignore.

Rishi Sunak had taken over by the time the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish government did not have the power to hold an independence referendum without the consent of the UK government.

And he argued that there were "more pressing issues" that the Scottish people wanted politicians to focus on.

After Labour came to power at Westminster in 2024, Sir Keir Starmer took a similar line, saying it was "not a priority" and he could not envisage one happening while he was prime minister.