The UK should reduce its reliance on American energy supplies, analysts have warned, amid fears Donald Trump could decide to cut back fuel exports to Britain.

Concerns have been reportedly growing within the energy sector and in Whitehall about an over-reliance on American imports at a time when relations between London and Washington are strained.

The UK is a net importer of natural gas and petroleum, mostly from the US and Norway. By 2035, the UK is set to rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America for over 60 per cent of its overall gas supplies, according to assessments from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, which warned that “recent history highlights the risks of reliance on a single country”.

The special relationship has suffered a series of recent blows, including Donald Trump threatening to seize Greenland from a mutual ally, insulting the British contribution to the Afghanistan war and launching a war against Iran that the UK has broadly refused to engage with.

Earlier this year, it was reported that No 10 was worried about the risk of Trump banning LNG exports to the UK following his economic policy flip-flops and disagreements over the Iran war.

The White House has so far rejected claims it will ban oil exports.

Trump ‘willing to pull significant number of levers’ to achieve goals

Maxwell Marlow, director of public affairs at the Adam Smith Institute think tank, said that the US President has “an aggressive negotiating style, meaning that he is willing to pull a number of significant levers to achieve his ends”.

“For the UK, that could mean limiting the amount of LNG – which makes up 15 per cent of our total imports – whether that is in foreign policy or trade disputes,” he said, suggesting that the UK must consider North Sea drilling to shore up its own energy supply.

Dr Katie Pruszynski, a political psychologist and vice chair of the American Politics Group, said that Trump using gas exports as “leverage” would not be surprising, but rather in keeping with “how he conducted business for decades”.

The US President has a history of using economic tools against his allies, launching – before largely retracting – widespread tariffs in early 2025, and this week escalating a trade war with Canada.

“He wants to see how far he can go,” Pruszynski said of the President. “He’s not getting what he wants on really anything, particularly stuff that’s not even linked to energy. People aren’t playing ball with Iran and his demands for assistance on defence. The UK has held really quite far back.

“[Trump’s] history is to make the bluster, to deliver the threat and then not actually follow through with it. But there is the risk with him that when he feels backed into a corner, he does sometimes take that step,” she added. “Look at the tariffs. The US economy has taken a massive hit – people are paying more for their everyday goods.”

Adam Bell, partner at consultancy Stonehaven and a former head of energy strategy in the UK government, said that “we assume this winter, we can rely upon American energy”, but “if we can’t for whatever reason… then we would be very much in trouble”.

Bell suggested the US could ban or reduce LNG exports in a bid to shore up fuel supply at home in the run-up to the midterm elections, where the cost of living is set to be a central issue.

The Iran war, which was started by the US and Israel in February, has spiked fuel prices worldwide, including within America.

Polling suggests the Democrats are now favoured on the cost of living, with just 31 per cent of ​Americans supporting US military action against Iran, while Trump’s approval rating is at a record low of 33 per cent.

“Having a degree of security [on the UK’s fuel supply] feels important,” Bell said. “Certainly the Americans have given no indication that they’re going to cut off gas to the rest of the world quite yet, if they did then we would be very much in trouble,” he said.

In the long term, Bell thinks the Government will “look at having more gas storage” to make the UK less vulnerable to market fluctuation and the decision of other countries.

“[The Government has] made a lot of warm noises about funding energy efficiency,” he said. “We’ve yet to see any real details of that, but giving people the ability to access some cash, to do something to the house before the winter would be helpful, especially swapping out a gas boiler for some sort of electric device.”

But Dr Ksenia Kirkham, a senior lecturer in economic warfare at King’s College London, said that a complete suspension of LNG sales to the UK would “most likely require an exceptionally serious political dispute that Trump viewed as directly affecting core US strategic interests”.

“In my view, it is not very likely. Although Trump may use the prospect of economic pressure rhetorically to strengthen his negotiating position, actual cuts to LNG supplies would run counter to important US commercial interests,” Kirkham said.

It comes as Trump announced a deal with Venezuela to take over a fifth of the country’s vast oil reserves, nine months after the US military captured its president, Nicolás Maduro, to face federal narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges in the US.

Kirkham said that this would be unlikely to change the US’s energy market in the short term, because it would take some time to set up the infrastructure needed.

The economic warfare expert said that UK’s reliance on LNG supplies is “something that should be reconsidered in the longer term”.

“Britain should strengthen domestic energy resilience by reducing dependence on imports and limiting exposure to external market and political shocks,” she said. “The problem is not so much Trump’s threats but the UK’s broader dependence on imported gas and limited gas storage capacity.”

A Government spokesperson said: “The UK has a diverse and resilient energy supply and gas will continue to play a key role as we transition to clean, homegrown energy.”