As he geared up for his by-election win in Clacton, Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, made it clear he had his sights set on the rest of Essex – including the seat of the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch.

But despite his threat, the residents of Saffron Walden, a medieval market town of 19,000 in the heart of Badenoch’s “true blue” North West Essex constituency, aren’t so sure he can win them over.

Reform’s local branch hopes to appeal to widespread concern about over-population and a lack of infrastructure in the area, but constituents told The i Paper they aren’t convinced Farage and his party are the answer to their problems.

‘Not the right man for the job’

Farage told : “We are going to pump big resources into Essex because we see it as very winnable. That’s half the shadow Cabinet who will lose their seats, including Kemi.”

“He’s an idiot,” says new arrival to the town Harry Smith, 86. He moved here six weeks ago to be near his son and grandchildren, and has always voted Conservative.

Jenny Gibson, 77, who has lived in the town for over four decades, is critical of the lack of infrastructure, but thinks there’s no chance of Reform gaining a foothold.

“People here would vote Conservative if it was a sock on a stick, that’s why Kemi was parachuted in here.” she said. A Labour voter herself, Gibson would vote Conservative to keep Reform out.

Labour came second here in the 2024 general election, and Electoral Calculus gives Reform just a 22 per cent chance of winning Badenoch’s seat with the Conservatives comfortably ahead on 64 per cent.

Tom and Jennifer Cronin, 36, moved from London to a village a few miles outside Saffron Walden two years ago, and say they think it’s “incredibly unlikely” Reform would get in. Like Gibson, they would switch from Labour to Tory to keep Reform out.

Stella Sims, 90, who has lived in Saffron Walden since the early 1980s, has seen the town transformed in the intervening decades. She used to work at an independent china shop on the high street which now lies vacant.

“It used to be a very true blue area, now it’s become more mixed because of the change of population – overspill from London, a bit of immigration. It’s still got a strong right-wing establishment,” she said.

She thinks Reform could have a good chance of winning if they go for local issues. A long-time Conservative voter, she gave up voting a few years ago, and after briefly toying with voting Reform.

“There’s no basic infrastructure here in town – we need doctors, schools, roads. It’s bedlam with the traffic and the council is doing very little,” she said. “It’s a shame because Nigel Farage might have the right ideas, but I can’t see him as a world statesman.”

‘It feels like we’re the last bastions’

Meg Hartland, 22, grew up in the area and says she would be “pretty upset” to see Reform win the seat as it’s a “centrist” area.

“During the flag wars we had a few on roundabouts but not in the town centre,” said Meg, a Labour voter. “Some boys did some graffiti that wasn’t nice and it was taken down straight away.”

While some in the area may be against Reform, the party has made gains in the East of England taking the councils of Thurrock, Suffolk, Essex, and Havering borough in London.

“We do seem to feel like the last bastions of defence,” said Richard Freeman, a former Liberal Democrat and leader of the council for the local Residents For Uttlesford party. “Some people call us the North West Essex Highlands.”

He described residents, who booted out the Tories in favour of his group in 2015, as “independent with a small i” and “self-thinking”.

Lisa Courtney, the town clerk, agreed that an election strategy lifted from Clacton wouldn’t work for Saffron Walden because the town and its problems were so different.

She said: “Educational attainment is higher here, employment in professional services, and salary earnings are higher. So I think the needs of this community will be different to those in the southern part of Essex.”

Courtney said having a Reform-run Essex council has made “absolutely no difference whatsoever” to the practical running of Saffron Walden council.

She said: “It’s very focused on South Essex. If you asked most county councillors where Saffron Walden was, they wouldn’t have a clue.”

Younger residents who moved to the area more recently weren’t so sure about the voters staying loyal to the Conservatives.

Sahana, 18, who works in Saffron and Sage, a deli on a bustling pedestrian street in the town centre, thinks an election in the area could go either way.

She described having to choose between Badenoch and a Reform candidate as a “battle for the worst”, but says she would have to choose Badenoch if it kept Reform out.

“I’m absolutely against Reform, I don’t like anything they stand for,” she said.

A half an hour’s walk south-east of the town centre, a new housing development is being built to accompany several that are already occupied.

Two young men outside the cafe, who wanted to remain anonymous, support Reform and think they could win in the area.

“The country needs a big drastic change, it’s going downhill big time. It’s not Britain anymore, with all the migrants coming over,” the elder, at 22, of the two said.

“Reform could stop that, if they come in and put their foot down. It could definitely go Reform round here, I speak to a lot of people in pubs around here who support them.”

Heather Asker, 66, the only Reform UK member of Saffron Walden town council and former town mayor, defected from Residents For Uttlesford in March 2025 after she realised the problems she wanted to solve, such as planning reform, needed to be done “at a national level”.

“Saffron Walden has been heavily hit by development. You’ve built the houses, people are here and they’re not going to leave,” she said.

“We need to build infrastructure first, make sure a certain amount of properties are sold first, and that enough of them are affordable for local people before planning applications are approved.”

She said Reform’s victories at council level “speak volumes” for local people’s feeling.

The party has not selected a candidate for the area yet, and Asker might throw her hat in the ring for the candidate selection, but thinks the party will likely select a “hard hitting, big name” to stand against Badenoch.

When asked if the “true blue” town could go Reform, though, Asker is optimistic: “Most of us [candidates] have conservative views and values. The Tory wish-list now has come straight out of Reform’s playbook.”