The Home Secretary’s threat to ban Eritreans from obtaining UK visas will have little impact on small boat arrivals or asylum claims from the east African country, experts say.
Shabana Mahmood has threatened to impose the ban if Eritrea does not take back illegal immigrants and criminals.
Eritrea is the leading country for small boat arrivals to the UK, and while most Eritreans who seek asylum are successful, the Home Office says return arrangements are vital for removing failed asylum seekers and foreign criminals.
“Further restricting access to visas will not stop refugees from fleeing Eritrea, it will simply force more of them to make dangerous journeys,” Sile Reynolds, head of asylum advocacy at Freedom from Torture, told The i Paper.
Russell Brand trial continues – what you need to know
Russell Brand has been in court today for the second day of his rape and sexual assault trial.
The second day of the trial
On the first day of the trial, Brand was described as a “ruthless sexual predator”.
The 51-year-old faces three allegations of rape, three counts of sexual assault and one allegation of indecent assault, after being accused by six women.
Today, the trial focused on one woman who was allegedly raped by Brand at a Labour Party conference in Bournemouth in 1999.
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What the court heard today
In a recorded interview, the woman who was allegedly attacked in a Bournemouth hotel room told the court how Brand said: “Don’t worry about it, it’s just fun, it’s normal,” as he allegedly raped her.
- She described washing herself for hours in the bathroom, “feeling dirty” and blaming herself for what had happened.
Brand was ‘gentlemanly’ and ‘effeminate’ at first
- The court head that Brand had playfully popped up behind the woman and pulled her ponytail “three or four times.”
- The defendant was “very gentlemanly”, “attentive” and “softly spoken” when they first met, the woman said.
- She also described him as “effeminate.”
- Before the alleged rape, the woman said she had been chatting to Brand “for hours” before she invited him to her hotel room to continue their conversation.
Brand ‘goose stepped’ like Basil Fawlty
When they were in the hotel room, the woman said he stripped off his clothes and started “goose stepping” around the room like British sitcom character Basil Fawlty.
Woman was worried about being pregnant after attack, court hears
The woman told police that she had nightmares about the possibility of being pregnant after the alleged attack.
She also said that Brand told her not to worry about sexually transmitted diseases, as he got himself regularly tested.
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Zelensky vows to resume Russia attacks – all you need to know
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that his country on Russian oil refineries in an interview with the . The move will put the final nail in the coffin of Donald Trump’s apparent “energy ceasefire” after Russia struck Ukraine’s energy facilities within hours of the announcement.
Why the deal collapsed
The White House was attempting to negotiate an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with Trump demanding that Zelensky cease strikes on Russian oil refineries to stop diesel prices from rising.
- The “energy ceasefire” that neither country agreed to collapsed on Thursday night after Moscow sent a record swarm of drones to attack infrastructure in central Ukraine.
- Kyiv also appeared to resume strikes on Russian oil refineries.
- Zelensky said on Wednesday that attacks would continue after a brief pause, adding: “The block is out. We’re done.”
A ‘speed limit on Ukraine’s military’
Also contributing to fraying relations is SpaceX’s decision to impose a new “speed limit” on Ukraine’s access to “Starshield” – a vital service used to intercept incoming Russian attacks.
- Zelensky said “It’s a big mistake. People will die.” He also suggested that owner of SpaceX, Elon Musk, may have been “pushed” to impose the restriction – and Musk publicly sheeted the blame directly to Trump.
Breakdown in US-Ukraine intelligence sharing
Zelensky has highlighted another issue hampering Ukraine’s defence: the US has stopped reliably sharing intelligence of incoming attacks. He said that Kyiv was hit by ballistic missiles on Monday and they received no warning from the US.
US officials reportedly told their Ukrainian counterparts that this was due to “bad weather,” but Ukraine is sceptical. Trump said Washington is still sharing intelligence with Kyiv.
The sea that’s becoming crucial to Putin’s hybrid war
The Black Sea is fast becoming a central front in Vladimir Putin’s escalating campaigns to make Ukraine unlivable and deter European allies from supporting it.
Temperatures to rise above 20°C before autumn chill arrives – here’s where
Temperatures for parts of the UK could reach as high as 23°C on Thursday as the unusually warn autumnal weather continues.
Warmer weather than expected
Afternoon highs in areas of eastern England are expected to be about 5-8°C above the norm for mid-October temperatures.
However, it will be colder further north and west, with temperatures in much of Scotland and Northern Ireland expected to sit around the seasonal average between 10-16°C.
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What can be expected for the rest of the week?
Some sunny spells will break through near the end of the week, with a few showers also possible in the north and west on Friday, moving to the south-east over the weekend.
- Temperatures will drop to near the October average of 10-16°C and single-digit lows can be expected at night, with thermometers dropping below freezing in some parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.
Watch more from The i Paper
Everyone is talking about stockpiling. This is what I’m actually buying
With the strongest planet-heating El Niño weather pattern in living memory expected to devastate harvests this winter – pushing sky-high food prices even higher next year – I’m preparing to go on a tin buying spree.
Three things to know as US weighs using ‘mother of all bombs’ on Iran
The US military has developed plans that could involve using the “mother of all bombs” on Iranian targets if Donald Trump decides to resume strikes, CNN has reported.
What is the Moab?
The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb – nicknamed the mother of all bombs or Moab – is the biggest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal. It was developed during the Iraq War and is designed to explode before hitting the ground to project a massive explosion from all sides.
Military officials at the time said they hoped it would rattle Saddam’s troops and persuade them into talks. It was made for use on large groups of enemies, hardened above-ground bunkers, and later approved for targets under softer surfaces like caves.
Would the bomb be effective?
Nuclear targets include Pickaxe Mountain, and while the Moab can eviscerate an area equivalent to nine city blocks, there are doubts if it would be able to penetrate deep enough to destroy the nuclear facility.
The bomb could also cause a large number of civilian casualties, though sources told CNN that Trump could choose to use it as a psychological weapon against the Islamic Republic.
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Trump running out of options
Trump has said he would not launch fresh attacks on Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November, with the conflict proving increasingly unpopular among Americans.
- Despite boasts of success from Trump, the war has sent oil prices surging with diesel reaching $6.28 a gallon this month. Rising fuel prices have sparked concerns Republicans could suffer badly in the midterms.
How Trump’s war drove up terror threat to UK from Iran’s shadowy military force
Author, historian and senior fellow at LSE Ideas
EX-DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson sentenced to 15 years – what you need to know
Former Democratic Unionist Party leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for child sex abuse and rape.
What you need to know
The former DUP leader, who was an MP for 27 years until 2024, was convicted of 18 counts of sex abuse earlier this year, which he committed against two women when they were children.
- Complainant A said Donaldson had touched her breasts and kissed her, and in one incident, had used a light to examine her crotch.
- Complainant A said Donaldson’s wife, Eleanor, had witnessed an incident where he touched her under her clothing but did not intervene.
- Donaldson was found guilty of eight offences between 1999 and 2008.
- Eleanor Donaldson was found to have aided and abetted his crimes after a trial of the facts but cannot be given a prison sentence on mental health grounds.
The second victim
Complainant B is the elder of the two women who was abused by Donaldson.
- Complainant B described an incident where Donaldson “lifted her top up and her bra and started to touch her exposed breasts”.
- She added that Donaldson would frequently put his hand down her underwear.
- Complainant B also said Eleanor Donaldson had witnessed an incident where her husband had “played” with her breasts.
- The offences were committed between 1985 and 1991.
Victim’s statements
Victim A said the abuse had conditioned her experiences in adult life. She said she still suffers debilitating nightmares and has been medicated since her twenties.
Victim B said the abuse has affected every relationship she has ever had.
“I wonder what it is like not to be afraid at night,” she says.
Why Sally Rooney’s books are being pulled from the UK
Irish author Sally Rooney has said her books will no longer be on sale in the UK due to legal complications from her support for Palestine Action, a proscribed terrorist organisation.
A ‘serious criminal offence’
Rooney, who is the author of books such as , previously pledged to donate sale proceeds to Palestine Action.
- She said: “In July 2025, the direct-action protest group Palestine Action was proscribed as a terrorist organisation in the UK. The following month, I wrote an opinion piece expressing my intention to go on supporting Palestine Action.”
- The group is not proscribed in Ireland.
- “As a result, the fulfilment of contracts to publish my work in the UK could now constitute a serious criminal offence […] Faber has therefore determined that it can no longer supply my work within the UK,” Rooney added.
- From 5 July last year, support for Palestine Action can result in a prison sentence of up to 14 years.
- The group has challenged the ban in the Supreme Court. The appeal is yet to be heard.
Can you still get her books?
On Wednesday, Ronney’s publisher Faber & Faber announced it would be halting sales in the UK, and her titles appear to have been pulled from sale as ebooks and audiobooks. Booksellers can continue to sell her books until they run out, after which they will not be restocked.
- The BBC also has TV adaptations of some of her work, and it is not clear whether this will be affected. Rooney has said previously that any fees generated by their availability could be problematic.
Watch more from The i Paper
What did Reform councillors say?
In the film, Undercover: A Year in Reform, Reform councillor in Solihull, Alan Feeney, was recorded saying the area has been “infested” with Asian families, and called them “absolute parasites”.
ITV reported Feeney had “mutually agreed” to resign from Reform, citing “personal reasons”, and would be continuing as an independent councillor.
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Further allegations
Alongside Feeney, fellow Solihull councillor Chris Whelan was recorded using sexist and Islamophobic language.
- Speaking about a female Reform candidate, Whelan said: “If she was my daughter, it would still be bath night on a Thursday.”
- Whelan has resigned from Reform citing health and personal reasons.
- Dean Miller, another Reform councillor, representing Bromley in south London, was recorded calling black children “animals” while campaigning for the party in the Makerfield by-election.
- He told ITV he had been heavily medicated and no longer represented the party.
What has been Reform’s response?
Reform has said “there is no room for racism” in the party. A party spokesman said “investigations have commenced” and there have been some suspensions. Reform added that it had improved its vetting but that “a handful of individuals who do not share our values will initially make it through”.
- Nigel Farage has repeatedly said he wants to rid the party of “bad apples” and has previously insisted he didn’t want Reform to be “a sectarian or racially based party in any way at all”.
How have other parties reacted?
Labour has described the revelations as “truly sickening”, adding: “Nigel Farage can’t shrug these latest revelations off as being a few bad apples.”
The Conservative Party said: “Nigel Farage promised to make Reform ready for government. These sorry individuals are proof he has failed.”
How one in six on disability benefits ‘do not face extra costs’
Around one in six working age people who receive disability benefit do not incur extra costs because of their conditions, a new report has found.
What PIP is meant to do
The personal independence payment (PIP) is a disability benefit designed to help cover extra living costs from long-term physical or mental health conditions.
However, the Resolution Foundation think-tank said its research suggested 16 per cent of those on PIP reported no additional costs due to their condition.
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A saving of £4.4bn
The think-tank said a redesigned system could remove 12 per cent of claimants by 2029-30 and switch payments for a further 4 per cent to improved non-financial support.
Combined, the report claimed the measures could save £4.4bn by targeting those whose conditions increase their outgoings.
- A change of this nature would affect younger PIP claimants particularly, with 21 per cent of those in the 16- 24 years caseload reporting no additional costs and little limitation from their disability.
Other suggestions for reform
The think-tank also suggested one-off payments could be more effective for people who reported a particular cost such as a mobility aid.
It also recommended that claimants should be asked more specifically about their extra costs and needs and be subject to more frequent but “lower stakes check-ins.”
How many people are on PIP?
Official data shows 4.09 million people were entitled to claim PIP as of 31 July, 2026.
- This is an increase of 7 per cent from last year
- The number of claimants has roughly doubled since comparable figures began in January 2019
- Up to £16.3bn was spent on PIP in 2019-20 when adjusted for inflation, which increased to £27.3bn in 2024-25 according to Department for Work and Pensions statistics
- It is currently predicted to rise to £41.5bn by 2030-31
The key benefit cuts that look likely after Burnham hints at shake-up
Two reviews due this autumn will shape what comes next for universal credit and personal independence payments.
Tackling the small boats crisis is a key priority for the Government, which has introduced various measures such as the now-defunct one in, one out policy with France, and an endangerment offence to prosecute small boat pilots. Mahmood has also vowed to impose visa penalties on countries that refuse to take back their citizens.
Her ultimatum to Eritrea comes after its VIPs and officials were stripped of fast-track access to UK visas, and restrictions on movement were imposed on diplomats, barring them from travelling 37 miles beyond London without permission from the Foreign Office.
The measures mirror limitations placed on British officials in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara.
Why is the Home Office singling out Eritrea?
Earlier this year, Eritrea abruptly stopped co-operating with the UK to accept failed asylum seekers, the Home Office said. It has failed to issue emergency travel documents that enable those without a valid passport to return to their home country.
“Eritrea has had every chance to accept the return of criminals and those with no right to be in the UK. Unlike other countries, it has refused,” Mahmood said.
It is not the first time the Government has issued such threats. It first issued warnings towards Angola, Namibia and Democratic Republic of the Congo last year. All three countries eventually agreed to start working with the UK to take back illegal migrants and criminals – and so avoided full visa sanctions.
How will the policy affect small boat arrivals?
Eritrea is the top country of origin for small boat arrivals, accounting for 18 per cent of those who come to the UK via this route in the year ending in June.
The majority of Eritrean asylum seekers are successful in their applications. Around 92 per cent of who applied between 2021 and 2025 have been granted protection, according to analysis by Migration Observatory.
The initial asylum grant rate for Eritrean nationals in the UK was 84 per cent in the year ending June 2026, second highest behind Sudan (92 per cent), Home Office figures show.
The initial rate indicates the number granted asylum at the first decision the home office makes, before any appeal or reconsideration.
In terms of impact on Eritreans arriving by small boat, experts say relatively few will be affected by Mahmood’s threat.
Mihnea Cuibus, senior researcher at Migration Observatory, said: “Even if the policy succeeds in its aim of increasing returns, it is likely to have a limited effect on the number of Eritreans who come by small boat.
“This is in part because of the very high grant rate, meaning that Eritrean nationals are overwhelmingly likely to be granted protection in the UK once they cross the Channel.”
Could the warning boost the number of returnees?
If Eritrea responds in the same Angola, Namibia and the DRC did when faced with the threats of visa penalties, the number of returnees could increase.
But numbers show that this would be unlikely to significantly boost the number of returnees. According to Migration Observatory’s analysis, in the last five years, only 1,800 Eritreans received a final negative decision on their asylum application.
In comparison, the Home Office recorded more than 6,000 Eritrean small boat arrivals in the last year alone.
“It remains too early too tell if these agreements will lead to more people being returned in practice,” said Cuibus. “There has been a slight uptick in the number of voluntary returns to Namibia in the first half of 2026, but overall numbers remain very small.”
Why are so many Eritreans fleeing home?
Eritrea’s indefinite mandatory national service, and use of torture and detention, are among the key reasons many flee the country.
Reynolds, whose charity works with asylum seekers including many from Eritrea, said its staff see daily the physical and psychological scars people who have fled the country bear.
“It is only because safe alternative routes, like securing a visa to travel, have been criminalised or cut off altogether that so many of these men, women and children have resorted to dangerous small boats to reach safety,” she said.
Reynolds raised concerns that a returns agreement with Eritrea “will simply increase the risk that we send people back into the hands of their torturers”.
Jon Featonby, chief policy analyst at the Refugee Council, said: “It’s imperative that this policy only targets the Eritrean authorities, and does not undermine the UK’s moral and legal duty to provide protection to those who need it.”