With less than a week to go before the Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition and the opposition’s “change bloc” are deadlocked in the polls.

Both are expected to claim more than 50 seats but fall short of the 61 required for a parliamentary majority. But there is a clear – if contentious – path to power for Netanyahu’s opponents: an alliance with Israel’s Arab parties.

Polls show that most seats not accounted for by either of the main blocs will be claimed by two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am. They are likely to secure around 15 seats between them, enough to give the opposition a comfortable majority and end the reign of Netanyahu and his far-right partners.

Defeat could spell the end for Israel’s longest-serving leader, who would be in his eighties before the next election is due in 2030, and leave him exposed to corruption charges without the protection of the prime minister’s office.

But four of the five main opposition leaders have ruled out a coalition that includes Palestinian citizens of Israel, leaving the outcome of the 27 October vote on a knife-edge. 

Why the move is controversial

Naftali Bennett, leader of the centre-right Together party, who served as prime minister in the only Israeli coalition to include an Arab party, has said “the next government won’t include Arab parties”, citing national security concerns. Gadi Eisenkot, leader of centrist Yashar and the most likely successor to Netanyahu, said neither Ra’am nor Joint List met his conditions for partnership. Only the centre-left Democrats have not ruled out such a coalition. 

Arab participation in the Israeli government has been a long-standing, two-way taboo, despite the parties representing two million citizens and 20 per cent of the population. Jewish parties have often cited security issues as a reason not to invite Arab parties into coalitions, and Arab parties have been wary of joining a government that could be seen as endorsing its policies towards Palestinians.

Ra’am broke the taboo by joining the Bennett-led government in 2021 – but the pendulum has swung again.

Nimrod Novik, an Israeli former diplomat now at the Israeli Policy Forum think-tank, points to the lingering effects of the Hamas attacks of 7 October, 2023 and subsequent wars in the first election since, as well as Netanyahu’s efforts to shape the debate. 

“Across the board, Israeli positions on Palestinian issues have hardened dramatically as a result of the trauma, and at the moment it is a political handicap to state that you are contemplating relying on Arab parties,” he said, adding that the nationalist right had been able to “instil in Israeli consciousness a taboo” around partnership with Arabs. 

Netanyahu’s campaign has featured regular attacks on the Arab parties, and recently published AI videos showing opposition leaders embracing Arab counterparts. 

Last month, the government-dominated elections authority banned the two Arab parties from running, alleging support for terrorism. The ban was overturned by the Supreme Court, but Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party – one of three that makes up the Joint List – withdrew after the court advised he was likely to be disqualified over allegedly expressing sympathy for Hamas. He denies this.

Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests the opposition is “shooting itself in the foot” by adopting right-wing positions towards Arabs that could cost it the chance to replace Netanyahu. 

“Clearly, the far right and the Israeli government has been seeking to delegitimise the Palestinian parties and any role they could play in the political system,” he said. “But buying into that narrative is clearly counterproductive for the opposition. If they hold that vow [ruling out a coalition], that will make it virtually impossible to emerge with a viable government.”

Parties could U-turn after the results

Whether parties stick to their pre-election positions when the results land is the subject of lively debate in Israel, where the complex electoral system often leads to short-lived marriages of convenience. That instability led to five elections in four years until the last poll in 2022. Novik suggests opposition leaders could yet soften their stance towards Arabs. 

“I’ve watched coalitions since 1970 and I have learned that the expiration date of ‘never’ is the moment the election results are in,” he said. “Suddenly, a politician has to choose between living up to his past, and future participation in government.”

Some leaders are unlikely to shift. Avigdor Lieberman, head of right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, has built his base on disillusioned Netanyahu voters, and any move to court Arab partners would undercut that. Eisenkot has signalled a more conciliatory stance but set conditions – such as mandatory military service for Arabs – are likely to be deal-breakers. 

A spokesperson for the Democrats party said it would support the inclusion of Ra’am and its leader Mansour Abbas in a governing coalition. “Abbas has already demonstrated that he can be a successful and constructive partner in government, as he was during the previous change government,” they said. “There is no reason why we should not work with him again.”

The Arab parties have their own considerations. Ra’am, which broke from the Joint List to join the government in 2021, has signalled its willingness to do so again. Abbas has also appointed a Jewish former police official, Yoav Segalovitz, as one of his top candidates in a move to reassure voters.

“We believe that a stronger Arab political representation will not only benefit Arab citizens but also contribute to a more stable and inclusive political future for everyone,” a spokesperson said. 

Ra’am has become the most Israel-facing of the Arab parties, and the least concerned with events in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, said Lovatt. The party has prioritised issues inside Israel such as organised crime in Arab communities, and living conditions for Bedouin farmers, above the war in Gaza and settlements in the West Bank, he suggests, which would make them easier coalition partners. 

The Joint List – comprising a range of positions – has said it is willing to provide a “safety net” for the opposition bloc that would allow it to pass votes with a minority government. Mauricio Lipchak, the party’s campaign director, said it would go further than ever before to ensure Netanyahu’s removal, including supporting the nomination of an opposition leader to be the next prime minister and speaker of parliament. 

But he pointed to a lack of commitments from opposition leaders to support equality for Palestinians in Israel, and a “political horizon with regards to a Palestinian state and a solution to the conflict”.

All of the opposition parties except the Democrats have ruled out allowing the creation of a Palestinian state, and offered varying degrees of support for West Bank settlements that are illegal under international law.

“We will be more than happy to join a governing coalition that will promote a just peace, that will promote equality among all the citizens here,” said Lipchak. “Unfortunately, this is not a coalition that will be established after these elections.”

The last-minute spanner

Seats from Ra’am alone could be enough to give the change bloc a majority, but the picture has changed again in recent weeks with the launch of a new party, The Reservists, which is likely to take seats from both sides on a platform of economic reform and expansion of military service.  

Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli pollster and political analyst, believes the opposition “may need to woo the Reservists, which would be likely to go [with them], but not necessarily if there is an Arab party. So it gets complicated.” 

With more twists expected in the final week, analysts believe the most likely outcome is a messy, inconclusive result, which could leave the change coalition running a fragile minority administration reliant on Arab co-operation.

Novik notes that Ra’am did not take part in votes relating to national security or military operations during the party’s time in office and suggests this could be a model for a new coalition with Arab support. 

The former diplomat believes that such a government is unlikely to last long due to its fragility and internal tensions, but could lay the groundwork to decisively defeat Netanyahu in another election. 

“I don’t think that coalition is likely to be sustainable. But it’s certainly worthwhile because then the anti-Netanyahu bloc shows up for the next election from the position of governance with a caretaker prime minister – and that’s an advantage,” he said.