The supermarket food items most at risk from summer heatwave

This year’s extreme hot weather and drought could hit next year’s summer barbecues by driving up the price of steak and burgers, The i Paper has learnt.

Fruit and vegetables as well as breads and cereal could also see price rises as repeated heatwaves and the driest July since records began have left farmers struggling with a lack of water, hitting crop yields.

Several experts have told The i Paper this is likely to feed through to higher price rises in around six to 12 months, after the Met Office said 2026 was likely to see the hottest summer on record.

The tax changes that could come in October’s Budget

As speculation rises over the Chancellor’s plans, experts believe the upcoming Budget could see another “smorgasbord” of small tax changes.

The fiscal rules mean additional borrowing is very unlikely, while there is little headroom for more spending.

Will taxes rise and by how much?

Economist Julian Jessop said: “It is highly likely that further tax increases will be announced in the Budget.” Leading economic forecaster Capital Economics suggests tax rises up to £25bn are possible.

Although there are hundreds of possible tax rises, here are some of the key ones that could affect you.

NHS pensions are DB pensions meaning they pay out a guaranteed income for life

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An increase to CGT rates

  • Capital gains tax is levied on gains made when an asset is sold.
  • Rates are generally lower than income tax rates at 18 to 24 per cent.
  • Basic income tax is 20 per cent, rising to 40 per cent and 45 per cent for higher brackets. 
  • Nimesh Shah, CEO of tax firm Blick Rothenberg, said: “Even if full alignment is considered a step too far, the Government may narrow the gap.”

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Pension tax changes

There has been speculation that the Government could end up cutting the size of the tax-free lump sum people can take from their pensions, which is either 25 per cent of the amount or £268,275 – whichever is lower.

Shah believes this is a “sacred cow” among middle England and won’t be touched, but that pension tax relief could be.

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Sin taxes

Jessop believes the Budget could target business sectors that Labour believes engage in “antisocial” activities.

To a degree, Andy Burnham has done this already, announcing a 20 per cent business rates cut for pubs, clubs, and small live music venues funded by reducing reliefs for stores perceived as causing social harm.

Britain's Prime Minister Andy Burnham peaks during a TV interview at The Hub cafe following a visit to the town centre of Ilkeston, Derbyshire, central England on August 11, 2026. (Photo by Toby Shepheard / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
  • Capital Economics believes “sin taxes” on the likes of unhealthy food could raise £1bn and be a possibility.

Wealth taxes

  • Though this could fall within the scope of large tax overhauls, Burnham is being urged heavily to consider changes.
  • Compass, a cross-party campaign group headed by Neal Lawson, is fronting a new report which includes calls for wealth tax reform.
  • The report proposes a 2 per cent levy on net wealth above £10m, which it says would raise £24bn a year from around 22,000 people – just 0.03 per cent of the population.
New Pound coins. Introduced in 2017.

What should you do now?

Experts warn that people should not act on Budget speculation now. “I think it’s important that people avoid making major financial decisions based purely on speculation about tax changes that may never materialise,” says Jason Hollands, managing director at Evelyn Partners.

The airport that has overtaken Heathrow as Europe’s busiest

(FILES) Crowds of passengers are pictured in the Check In area of the South terminal at Gatwick Airport, in Sussex, in southern England, 10 August 2006. Workers at seven British airports including London's Heathrow voted Friday 21 December 2007, to stage a series of strikes in January 2008 over pensions in a move which could cause severe disruption. The staff including firefighters will stage 24-hour stoppages on January 7 and January 14 and will strike for 48 hours from January 17. AFP PHOTO/CARL DE SOUZA/FILES (Photo credit should read CARL DE SOUZA/AFP via Getty Images)

Heathrow airport said “the case for expansion has never been clearer” after it lost its position as Europe’s busiest airport.

Everything we know

Heathrow has lost its claim to the busiest airport in Europe to Istanbul. Heathrow’s two runways are operating at capacity, but passenger numbers are thought to be down due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Travelers pass through the hall of Istanbul International Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on June 21, 2026. (Photo by Marc Fernandes/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
ISTANBUL, TURKEY - APRIL 6: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY MANDATORY CREDIT - "IGA / HANDOUT" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) A drone photo shows the plane pist landing strips at Istanbul Airport as the majority of moving process comes to an end on April 6, 2019 in Istanbul, Turkey. The Istanbul Airport started serving international and domestic flights on Saturday after its mega move. (Photo by IGA / Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

The airport used the drop in numbers as a new argument in its long-standing campaign for a third runway. Reacting to the news, it said “the case for expansion has never been clearer”.

The story in numbers

8.15 million

Heathrow saw just 7.86 million customers pass through it in July, compared to 8.15 million in Istanbul.

The London airport recorded 84.46 million total passengers in 2025.

1.5% dive

Heathrow’s July passenger total represented a 1.5 per cent decrease compared with the same month last year, whereas Istanbul saw a 2.3 per cent boost.

On Middle East routes alone, Heathrow passenger numbers were down 20 per cent compared to last year.

The new ‘treatment for life’ weight-loss pill approved for UK

The GLP-1 medication will be available to buy privately with a prescription after approval by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

photo illustration Foundayo weight loss oral pill with Wegovy. Its a non-peptide oral GLP-1 receptor agonist from Eli Lilly. (Photo by: Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Everything we know


  • Foundayo is a daily weight-loss pill from Eli Lilly, the makers of Mounjaro.

  • The UK has become the first European country to approve its use.

  • It is another GLP-1 medication which reduces appetite. It treats type 2 diabetes and obesity.

  • It can help people lose an average of 12 per cent of their body weight.

  • We do not yet know if the pills will be available on the NHS. It will be available on prescription for private patients.

Why is this significant?

A woman takes a tablet with a glass of water

A trial in May found orforglipron, the scientific name for the drug, could be used to help patients maintain weight loss after coming off GLP-1 jabs.

Dr Louis Aronne, an obesity expert at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York, hailed it as a “treatment for life”.

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Are you having as much sex as everyone else?

It’s natural for libido to wax and wane due to life events, dating status or hormonal changes.

And it can be hard to say what a “normal” sexual frequency is. But research and case studies give us a rough idea.

The statistics

When it happens

61%

 A 2023 survey concluded that almost two thirds (61 per cent) of us wait until night-time to have sex.

Only 14 per cent opt to get busy in the early evening, and 10 per cent in the morning.

 Research from 2019 suggests that the average number of times British live-in or married couples have sex per month is three. 

Are Gen Z having less sex than older people?

I see my partner on the weekends and have sex with others in the week.

Leanne, a 27-year-old influencer from Bristol has sex three or four times a week, but only sees her long-distance partner on the weekends. They have agreed they can both sleep with other people during the week.

35-year-old Rebecca usually sleeps with her partner once or twice per week due to not having much child-free time.

Clare, 32, says her job is busy and she has to schedule sex with her partner on weekends, or some afternoons twice a month. “Occasionally this slips and I do worry that it makes us not as connected,” she says.

I haven’t had the issue of my sex life drying up with menopause. I’m more aroused now.

I’ve been married for 15 years. I love my husband, but our sex life is non-existent, and has been for about five years.

I’m not really motivated to seek out partners; I vaguely like the idea of it but not enough to take any action.

I’ve been married for 20 years and sex has become something of a rarity. We maybe have sex once a week on a Sunday morning as we’re both relaxed and I can take Viagra late on Saturday night – without it, I can’t perform.

JACK, 63, OFFICE WORKER, KENT
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The seven rules that could save your marriage

Keep your sense of self

I did what I thought I was supposed to do and forgot my needs and wants. I think it’s really important that you’re an individual and not just a person who is married.

KATIE STRATFORD*, A 55-YEAR-OLD MUM OF TWO, WHO DIVORCED ATER 19 YEARS
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Seven rules to save your marriage

The small things

Small things, like being brought a cup of tea or saying thank you, make a big difference.

Karen Deulofeu, who ended her six-year marriage, believes all couples should seek support, even before they think they need it.

Female psychiatrist discussing with mid adult woman during therapy session - stock photo
Young couple in serious discussion with mental health professional during marriage counseling session sit on sofa in living room at home. Therapy session and mental health concept.

Listen properly by repeating what you have heard and ask if you’ve got that right.

Don’t lose communication

People don’t talk about the deep issues; nobody else is going to do it for you. You don’t want to ask questions because it might rock the boat…you have to keep talking, and talk about what it is that you want within the relationship to keep going forward.

KATIE STRATFORD

Seven rules to save your marriage

Remember that things change

“What you see on social media and what friends say is quite often the nice version. Everything is a phase,” says Deulofeu.

Unhappy elderly couple sitting on a sofa together after arguing. Senior caucasian man and woman looking stressed and ready for divorce
A senior couple spend time in an indoor sunny market. The woman looks through a clothes on a rail as her husband waits patiently behind her.

Look at yourself first

“Focus on what’s in your control and what you can do differently, rather than the other person or a situation that you can’t control. Invest in understanding yourself,” she adds.

There are things that all mid-life men should know about keeping their hearts healthy.

From eating more purple fruit to avoiding large bowls of pasta, consultant cardiologist Dr Zoe Astroulakis [below] shares her simple lifestyle habits she wishes her patients would take on board.

Positive changes to make

Swap ‘bad’ fats for healthy ones

You don’t need to eat a fat-free diet; the key is to reduce your saturated fat. Reduce your dairy and swap your red meat for lean meat such as chicken and oily fish.

Shopping basket full of grocery products, food and drink on yellow background. 3d illustration
man eating fried chicken

Control your portions

You don’t need more carbohydrates in a meal than you can fit in your hand. Enormous plates of pasta can cause blood sugar spikes, which can lead to health problems.

Positive changes to make

A handful of harvested blueberries in the Fruit and Vegetable Garden at RHS Garden Rosemoor. Image via Image via Guy Barter

Look for purple

Blueberries, black grapes and aubergines are great for boosting “good” cholesterol.

Have oats

Porridge is one of the healthiest breakfast options because it’s full of soluble fibre.

Oatmeal porridge with banana blueberry and walnuts in ceramic bowl. Top view. Grey concrete table background. Healthy eating, dieting concept
Young girl buying drugs inside of night club at party time.

Stop taking cocaine

It can provoke a massive heart attack, even in younger people who don’t have existing artery problems.

Stay below the alcohol limit

Middle aged bearded man sitting in a bar and drinking fresh cold light beer. It's time to relax after work. Always have a little time for yourself.
  • The NHS guidelines of 14 units per week is still more than 1,000 additional calories.
  • The safest level to aim for is zero.
  • If you’re drinking, make sure you have some alcohol-free days each week and space it out.

5 min read

Positive changes to make

Do cardio too

Don’t only focus on lifting weights. It might make you look toned, but it says nothing about the health of your heart. 

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Check your levels

You can get free blood pressure checks in many pharmacies or you can buy a monitor for around £30 to use at home.

Avoid night shifts

It disrupts the body’s circadian rhythm and can lead to increased cholesterol.

Engineers from a Thames Water leak hunting team unloads equipment from their van during a night shift in London. (Photographer: Jose Sarmento Matos/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A sign to look out for

A beer belly is a sign you need to make urgent changes

glasses of Real ale beer on bar in traditional English pub

It’s usually a sign you’re drinking too much. By the time your belly starts to bulge, it’s a sign that you’re consuming excess calories and storing too much fat internally.

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Want a new career but worried it’s too late?

Mid-life is not too late to start again, says experienced recruiter Elizabeth Willetts [below].

Here, Willetts shares the best jobs to switch to during midlife if you want a change – without sacrificing pay.

Changing careers in your fifties

Mid-life career pivots can lead to higher earnings. 

7.4%

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, workers aged 45 to 54 who voluntarily pivot jobs see an average wage growth of 7.4 per cent.

3.5%

And those aged 55 to 64 still see a 3.5 per
cent increase. 

The AARP Global Employee Survey also found that over half of workers who changed jobs voluntarily experienced improvements in work flexibility and mental health.

So what job options are there?

Virtual assistant

As a virtual assistant your workload will be very varied and it could be anything from tidying inboxes, booking travel, sending invoices or updating spreadsheets.

Online travel booking. Teleworking. Online shopping and e-commerce.
Confident successful Indian female HR recruitment manager holding resume in hands while having an interview in a modern office, looking and listening to job candidate. Friendly interview between HR female director and caucasian job candidate. - stock photo

You can start out earning around £20 to £35 an hour, but it can scale into agency work, launch support or even project management. Some earn very well.

Male candidate handshake with the recruiter at job interview - stock photo

What it involves

You will source, screen and interview candidates to match them with the right job roles.

Who it’s for

You don’t need any qualifications but it’s suited to communicators and commercially-minded people. 

Rearview female recruitment reading and checking resume in hands interviewing and hiring woman candidate for joи near laptop in office with glass windows - stock photo

The pay

The salary van vary from £25 to £50k, but you can earn around £100k depending on commission.

Jobs to switch to in your fifties

Male Real Estate Agent With Digital Tablet Carrying Out Valuation On Property For Renovation

Estate agent

It offers flexible hours and weekend staff can earn £15 per hour. 

This form of coaching for businesses could earn around £250 to £1,000 per day.

portrait of confident senior business man holding digital tablet in modern office
A candidate confidently presents their resume during a job interview with a panel of professionals. Company owner on a meeting with employee. Middle aged businesswoman in a conversation with a colleague. Lawyer consulting client during formal meeting. Job interview and hiring process.

In the lower end, a sales rep can make £30k and on the higher end £50-60k, plus commission.

Why coaching is a good option

Coaching is incredibly varied and can be anything from career coaching, to confidence and leadership coaching. 

  • As it is an unregulated industry, you don’t need qualifications but the more reputable option is the International Coaching Federation.
  • It’s a great career option for older people because clients genuinely value your wealth of life experience.
  • It’s flexible, scalable, and you can start doing it part-time alongside another role.
  • It could make you anything from £200 an hour, all the way up to £500 p/h+.
staff nurse consulting ward doctor

This can be across HR, operations, marketing, finance, people strategy or project management, as it’s varied.

Price on value, not hours – if your advice saves a client £200k, charging £150 an hour undersells what you’re worth.

Do some foods leave
you feeling hungry rather than satiated? Experts say there are…

Foods that leave you hungrier

A bowl of cereal and glass of orange juice

More refined cereals are digested quickly, and fruit juice, whilst one of your five-a-day, contains less fibre than whole fruit. This might mean you find yourself hungry again within 1-2 hours of eating this breakfast.

Woman eating colored breakfast cereal in front of laptop, workplace breakfast, quick healthy breakfast in office in the morning.

Swap the orange juice for a whole orange, the cereal for oats and milk or serve it with Greek yoghurt or a boiled egg. This would increase the fibre and protein content; two nutrients strongly linked with fullness.

Foods that leave you hungrier

Gail's croissant Image taken from https://gails.com/collections/breakfast/products/croissant

These pastries are made primarily from refined flour and butter, and are relatively low in protein and fibre.

Toast and jam

Toasted bread and white background
FILE PHOTO: Pufferfish sushi line is seen on a display window at a market in Shimonoseki, Japan February 7, 2020. Picture taken on February 7, 2020. REUTERS/Sakura Murakami/File Photo

Shop-bought packs can contain a lot of white rice, which is digested quickly, and the protein content is often modest.

Foods that leave you hungrier

Sarawak laksa is one of many varieties of this noodle soup (Photo: Tham Kee Chuan/Getty)

Vegetable soup

On its own, it is often very low in protein and calories, so hunger can return quickly.

Unless it’s loaded with veggies, it’s probably pretty low in fibre.

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 12: Chocolate Milkshake Smoothies photographed for Food in Washington, DC on August 12, 2024 (Photo by Scott Suchman for The Washington Post via Getty Images; food styling by Lisa Cherkasky for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Liquids are generally less filling as they require little chewing which may not trigger satiety signals.

Foods that leave you hungrier

London, convenience store, snacks and sweets. (Photo by: Jeffrey Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Snack bars

They are ideal for a quick pick-me-up, but if reducing hunger is what you’re after, it’d be better to swap it out.

Low-fat yoghurt

A full-fat plain Greek yoghurt with berries and seeds tends to be much more filling due to the protein, fat and fibre.

Which yoghurts are the best options? (Unsplash)
BANGKOK, THAILAND - OCTOBER 17: A "KT Herbalist", a Kratom cocktail made from Kratom, coffee and siamese herbs is seen at Teens of Thailand, a bar in Bangkok's Chinatown on October 17, 2021 in Bangkok, Thailand. In April 2021, the start of Thailand's third and most deadly wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Thai government banned the sale of alcohol in restaurants and bars, crippling the already suffering food and beverage industry. With a lack of government aid and support, some bars have shuttered their doors in hopes of reopening post-lockdown, while others shuttered their doors for good. But six months into Thailand's most recent lockdown, Niks Anuman-Rajadhon, owner of Teens of Thailand, a gin bar located in a renovated shophouse in Bangkok's Chinatown, decided that instead of waiting for the government to allow the sale of alcohol again, they would take advantage of Thailand's recent legalization of Kratom. Kratom is a locally grown herbal drug with mild opioid and stimulant effects and was reclassified from a type-5 narcotic to a legal-to-grow herb in August 2021. While Thailand prepares for a tentative reopening on November 1st, the alcohol ban and curfew are set to continue, leaving business owners questioning if the country can revive its suffering tourism industry. (Photo by Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images)

On an empty stomach, it can actually increase your appetite.

What to eat instead

Instead of thinking about avoiding foods, think about what you can add to them.

  • Add beans, lentils or shredded chicken to your vegetable soup and pasta.
  • Thicken your smoothies with Greek yoghurt, chia seeds and oats.
  • Apple slices with peanut butter, yogurt with berries and hummus with oat biscuits are better snack options than a pre-made snack bar.
  • Have alcohol alongside a balanced meal containing protein and fibre.

The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said “fruit, vegetable and grain supply” have all been hit by the scorching conditions.

Cherries, broccoli and meat all face difficulties

Dwindling grain supply is in turn driving the cost of animal feed higher, while grass pastures are suffering in drought conditions, meaning the cost of meat and particularly beef, including popular barbecue products like steaks and burgers could rise before next summer, an industry source said.

More immediately, British supplies of broccoli and cherries are already under pressure, the source added.

Alistair Carmichael, chair of the Commons Environment Committee, sounded the alarm over poor yields of wheat and barley, key ingredients for a huge range of products from loaves of bread to breakfast cereals.

However, others in the industry said fruit and veg are impacted more severely by heat and have a short supply chain, which also often requires temperature-controlled “cold chains” including refrigerated trucks and planes, making it harder for food manufacturers to source them from elsewhere.

While the impact is most likely to be felt next year, price rises are on the way and are being compounded by the wars in Iran and Ukraine, Carmichael and the FDF said.

Carmichael, the Liberal Democrat ex-cabinet minister, told The i Paper: “If you think that wheat and barley, combinable crops like that are already reporting lower yields – that’s the fundamental building block for an awful lot of things from loaves of bread to breakfast cereals.

“I’m also hearing a lot of vegetable farmers saying they are also experiencing poor yields because of the very dry weather, the very hot weather, and the lack of availability of water to irrigate their crops.

“This is coming off the back of farmers already having higher food costs in the spring because of what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz – fertiliser costs have been higher and fuel costs have been higher.

“So the demand will remain the same but if you have not got the supply then the price goes up, that’s economics 101.

“The other factor you have to take into account is where we have had poor harvests in the past, because this is not new, we have been able to supplement that with imports from other parts of Europe.

“But actually continental Europe is in as bad, if not a worse position, that we are.

“On top of that you still have the conventional war in Ukraine, the bread basket of Europe – it’s called that for a reason.”

He added: “This will probably generate a spike in food prices and we will need to deal with that but in the medium to long term, we need to get real about the way we leave ourselves exposed by not taking seriously the need to sustain our own core food production.”

Supply across Europe is impacted

Liliana Danila, the FDF’s chief economist, also highlighted European heatwaves and droughts, adding: “Not only is the UK experiencing one of its hottest and driest summers on record, but across most of Europe heatwaves and severe droughts are impacting fruit, vegetable and grain supply.

“Competition for fewer resources will in turn push up the price of ingredients for manufacturers.

“The UK’s food and drink manufacturers work hard to absorb costs where they can, but are already grappling with rising costs as a result of war in Ukraine and in Iran, so we expect the additional upward pressure of reduced crops will be reflected in retail prices into next year.”

Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability policy at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Extreme weather, including drought, can affect crop yields and place upward pressure on prices. Retailers are experienced in managing supply disruptions and will take all necessary steps, including sourcing from alternative suppliers where appropriate, to minimise any impact on customers.”

Food supplies will be secure, government says

The i Paper understands that ministers are looking at helping farmers by making it easier for them to extract more water from natural sources like rivers at times of high rainfall, and then find local solutions to store it in reservoirs ready to use in droughts.

Supermarkets are meanwhile already acting to increase supplies of home-grown cucumbers, along with peppers and tomatoes, from British producers and extending domestic production beyond summer using glasshouses to ensure supplies.

A Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) spokeswoman said: “The UK has a highly resilient food system, drawing on both strong domestic production and international trade and we do not expect the recent dry weather to have any impact on national food security.

“Alongside this, we are building stronger, more resilient food supply chains to protect Britain from potential disruptions along with the new Farming Roadmap and our work with the National Drought Group and Farming and Food Partnership Board.”

Original source The supermarket food items most at risk from summer heatwave

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