The tiny corner of Europe in Putin’s crosshairs

The head of the CIA flew to Moscow this week for an extraordinary meeting that raised fears Vladimir Putin could be planning a major escalation.

John Ratcliffe’s purpose in the Russian capital was to warn Kremlin officials not to attack Washington’s Nato allies, in particular the Baltic states on its border, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Politico reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The reports come as Moscow struggles with a stalemate on the battlefield in Ukraine and escalating drone attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure inside Russia – raising concerns that Putin could seek to change the equation with a dramatic move.

How to be more grateful for daily life in five easy steps

The world feels like a difficult place at the moment, and it can feel very hard sometimes to find things to be thankful for; when we are overwhelmed, we have less capacity to notice and reflect on the good things. Yet, ironically, proactively cultivating gratitude is one of the things that can actually help us feel less stressed.

NHS GP dR RADHA

The science

Research has shown that feeling or expressing thanks can actually alter our brain.

  • The balance of neurotransmitters change; more serotonin and dopamine (feel good chemicals) are produced.
  • This can be long lasting if we make gratitude a regular habit.
  • We also get a decrease in our cortisol (stress hormone) levels which helps lower anxiety.
  • Being grateful can strengthen the nerve pathways which triggers positive emotion.

How can we build gratitude?

Two adult brothers enjoy a warm embrace in a sunny park. They stand beside a decorative fence surrounded by lush greenery, showcasing a strong bond and happiness in the moment.

Change your words

Instead of seeing something as a problem, try to see the opportunities within it. 

Our brains are very receptive and what we read or write can alter our emotional system.

Caucasian mid adult patient writing a diary while recovering in the hospital ward - stock photo

Express it

This will not only make you feel good, but you will also get a positive response from others.

How can we build gratitude?

Notice more

Throughout your day, try to notice all the things that are going well; has someone opened a door for you, or smiled?

Happy woman spending leisure time with friends at sunny day. Multiracial females are talking with each other. They are wearing sports clothing.
Group of Happy Asian senior women friends shopping and having lunch at restaurant on summer holiday vacation. Healthy elderly woman enjoy outdoor lifestyle meeting and eating food together.

The basics

By being thankful for the small things every day, we are far more likely to be and stay healthy so that we can enjoy them.

What to do

Gratitude can lead to feelings of optimism, lower our blood pressure, and improve sleep quality. 

  • Write down what potential good aspects there are to the things you don’t feel like doing, or even what could be worse about it.
  • Spend a few minutes writing down three things that you are looking forward to that day, or the good things that have happened to you that day.
  • Say thank you to yourself for the things you have achieved, or managed to get through and changed that day.

Sales of battery
electric vehicles hit a record high last year.

Starts at £22,995 for the smaller battery

Available with either a 40kWh battery or a larger 52kWh pack, that offers almost 255 miles, the latest, retro-inspired Renault 5 is both a joy to behold and a hoot to drive.

The interior has been lavished with a level of detail that’s typically reserved for more expensive cars. 

4 min read

A champion of EV efficiency

It offers a remarkable 491 mile range on a single charge from the 85kWh battery.

It is a technological masterclass inside with the ability to option screens that span the entire width of the dashboard, including an optional display for the front passenger.

Priced from £37,400

2 min read

It’s a lot of money to part with, but this is arguably all the car you will ever need.

The £89,000 Macan is a premium SUV that somehow manages to blend Porsche’s reputation for dynamics and sporty driving with everyday practicality.

The 95kWh batteries can go from 10 to 80 per cent in as little as 21 minutes from the fastest public charging outlets.


With the business class-style six seat configuration costing a staggering £76,995, it is by far the most expensive Kia ever made, but it backs up its financial demands with a suite of genuinely useful and impressive onboard technology.

It’s fast, goes a long way between stops and charges relatively quickly but the interior is bland, the onboard technology is infuriating and the experience is devoid of emotion. 

All of its gadgetry can’t disguise the fact that performance is weak, even for a typically zippy EV, the ride is fussy at slower speeds and it’s not in the least bit enjoyable to drive on a country road.

  • While good value (prices start at £17,935) for the 200-mile max range, there are more interesting options from Hyundai, Citroen and Renault for similar money.
  • It attempts to wow with tech, much of which hinders, rather than helps. 
  • There’s no tangible benefit over mounting your phone to the dash.
  • Simply an average driving experience, adequate range and slow charging speeds. 

2 min read

The kitchen gadgets under £25

best kitchen gadgets

Victorinox paring knife

It’s comfortable to hold, with a point sharp enough for scoring pastry.

ProCook cast iron pan

For unbeatable searing and heat-retention, cast iron is the top choice. 

Tesco chopping board

Priced at just £22, I’ve yet to find another board that matches it for sheer value and quality.

The kitchen gadgets under £25

Pyrex jug

It is the perfect vessel for blending smooth sauces, melting butter, or warming stock. It won’t stain like plastic and the red measurements never fade.

Salter scales

“I’ve had my slim little set of Salter Disc Scales for over a decade, and I’m delighted to see they are still made to exactly the same reliable design today.”

Microplane grater

It uses photo-etched stainless steel teeth that stay razor-sharp for a decade, something the lookalike copycats simply can’t match. 

Braun hand-held blender

It’s an essential for everything from making velvety soup to getting the lumps out of white sauce. 

Bodum cafetiere

As well as delivering great results, cafetieres are easy to clean and there’s no ongoing filter paper costs or pod recycling to deal with.

5 min read

The kitchen gadgets under £25

Oxo peeler

What truly sets it apart is the chunky, rubberised handle that absorbs pressure and stays completely non-slip, even if your hands are wet. It is inexpensive and incredibly durable.

Falcon pie dish

Made by fusing porcelain onto heavy-gauge steel for smooth durability, it is dishwasher, freezer, hob, air-fryer and oven-safe. 

The golden rules for a happy, secure relationship

Psychiatrist and neuroscientist Dr Amir Levine, author of bestselling book , explains why we behave the way we do in love.

Happy woman walking with male partner in vineyard during sunset. Elderly couple are touring in field against sky. They are enjoying during weekend.

Golden rules for happy relationships

Start with your own behaviours

The foundation of a secure, connected life is being what I call CARRP: that means being consistent, available, responsive, reliable and predictable. All of these qualities can be enacted in small gestures every day.

Side view of affectionate happy couple sitting in the cozy cafe. - stock photo
Happy young couple spending quality time together at home

Express your needs

People need consistency and connection to feel safe. This is not, ‘You hurt my feelings by never replying to me’, it’s more ‘this is the kind of contact that helps me feel secure’.

Golden rules for happy relationships

Unhappy married couple facing away from each other in a quiet home, concept of emotional distance, loneliness in relationship and family problems - stock photo

The appendix ‘inflammation’ rule

If a relationship repeatedly inflames your nervous system, you need to disengage and deprioritise it.

Lean on community

You don’t need hundreds of friends. You need people and places that regularly remind you that you belong. 

Happy couples talking while walking embraced during spring day in a meadow.
Candid shot happiness and togetherness Asian mother supporting daughter try to standing and walking first time and positive emotion - stock photo

Stop blaming childhood

Humans are much more complicated than: ‘this happened to you, therefore you are doomed to be anxious’.

Financial problems. Worried middle-aged woman holding utility bills, managing monthly household budget, sitting on bed feeling anxious. Cost of living concept

Reach for a
secure script

When something unsettles you in a relationship, your first reaction is not always the most accurate one. 

If you’re anxious, your brain may jump very quickly to: ‘this is the beginning of the end’. If you’re avoidant, your brain may say: ‘this person wants too much from me, I need to get away’. So one very practical thing you can always do is pause and ask: ‘What would a secure person do here?’

Loneliness elsewhere

When people talk about loneliness, they often assume it means you don’t have enough people in your life. But you can be surrounded by people and still feel lonely if those relationships leave you feeling excluded, ignored or disconnected.

Frustrated lonely shy guy sitting apart of others teenagers - stock photo

What to do

  • Build a community that works for your temperament and gives you regular, reliable moments of connection.
  • You can still be kind to people while not treating them as someone who belongs in your inner circle. 
  • Explain what you need. Sometimes people simply don’t realise how you are experiencing them.
  • Check in with people: does this person actually feel that I’m reliable? Do they experience me as predictable? That’s the only way that you can start to become more secure.

Do some foods leave
you feeling hungry rather than satiated? Experts say there are…

Foods that leave you hungrier

A bowl of cereal and glass of orange juice

More refined cereals are digested quickly, and fruit juice, whilst one of your five-a-day, contains less fibre than whole fruit. This might mean you find yourself hungry again within 1-2 hours of eating this breakfast.

Woman eating colored breakfast cereal in front of laptop, workplace breakfast, quick healthy breakfast in office in the morning.

Swap the orange juice for a whole orange, the cereal for oats and milk or serve it with Greek yoghurt or a boiled egg. This would increase the fibre and protein content; two nutrients strongly linked with fullness.

Foods that leave you hungrier

Gail's croissant Image taken from https://gails.com/collections/breakfast/products/croissant

These pastries are made primarily from refined flour and butter, and are relatively low in protein and fibre.

Toast and jam

Toasted bread and white background
FILE PHOTO: Pufferfish sushi line is seen on a display window at a market in Shimonoseki, Japan February 7, 2020. Picture taken on February 7, 2020. REUTERS/Sakura Murakami/File Photo

Shop-bought packs can contain a lot of white rice, which is digested quickly, and the protein content is often modest.

Foods that leave you hungrier

Sarawak laksa is one of many varieties of this noodle soup (Photo: Tham Kee Chuan/Getty)

Vegetable soup

On its own, it is often very low in protein and calories, so hunger can return quickly.

Unless it’s loaded with veggies, it’s probably pretty low in fibre.

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 12: Chocolate Milkshake Smoothies photographed for Food in Washington, DC on August 12, 2024 (Photo by Scott Suchman for The Washington Post via Getty Images; food styling by Lisa Cherkasky for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Liquids are generally less filling as they require little chewing which may not trigger satiety signals.

Foods that leave you hungrier

London, convenience store, snacks and sweets. (Photo by: Jeffrey Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Snack bars

They are ideal for a quick pick-me-up, but if reducing hunger is what you’re after, it’d be better to swap it out.

Low-fat yoghurt

A full-fat plain Greek yoghurt with berries and seeds tends to be much more filling due to the protein, fat and fibre.

Which yoghurts are the best options? (Unsplash)
BANGKOK, THAILAND - OCTOBER 17: A "KT Herbalist", a Kratom cocktail made from Kratom, coffee and siamese herbs is seen at Teens of Thailand, a bar in Bangkok's Chinatown on October 17, 2021 in Bangkok, Thailand. In April 2021, the start of Thailand's third and most deadly wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Thai government banned the sale of alcohol in restaurants and bars, crippling the already suffering food and beverage industry. With a lack of government aid and support, some bars have shuttered their doors in hopes of reopening post-lockdown, while others shuttered their doors for good. But six months into Thailand's most recent lockdown, Niks Anuman-Rajadhon, owner of Teens of Thailand, a gin bar located in a renovated shophouse in Bangkok's Chinatown, decided that instead of waiting for the government to allow the sale of alcohol again, they would take advantage of Thailand's recent legalization of Kratom. Kratom is a locally grown herbal drug with mild opioid and stimulant effects and was reclassified from a type-5 narcotic to a legal-to-grow herb in August 2021. While Thailand prepares for a tentative reopening on November 1st, the alcohol ban and curfew are set to continue, leaving business owners questioning if the country can revive its suffering tourism industry. (Photo by Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images)

On an empty stomach, it can actually increase your appetite.

What to eat instead

Instead of thinking about avoiding foods, think about what you can add to them.

  • Add beans, lentils or shredded chicken to your vegetable soup and pasta.
  • Thicken your smoothies with Greek yoghurt, chia seeds and oats.
  • Apple slices with peanut butter, yogurt with berries and hummus with oat biscuits are better snack options than a pre-made snack bar.
  • Have alcohol alongside a balanced meal containing protein and fibre.

How to age well
without pain

Will Harlow, a physiotherapist
for the over-50s and author of Independence for Life, shares
the key signs you’re ageing
badly – and what to do about it.

How to know

Ageing well is maintaining the ability to do what you want you want for as long as you want without needing help. Everyone is talking about longevity but what’s the point in living longer if the last decade is painful and you’re [totally] reliant on people?”

The signs to look out for

Senior woman on sofa feeling and suffering from back pain. - stock photo
  • The most obvious early warning sign of bad ageing is pain says Harlow. 
  • Another is losing confidence in doing daily tasks, which can quickly lead to a lack of independence.
  • One call Harlow often receives is people calling after having a fall and struggling to get up.

4 min read

How to age without pain

Not just stopping

When people retire, they often put their feet up and stop. Your body really is use it or lose it.

Throughout our entire lives, Harlow says we need between seven and nine hours of sleep.

Tired mature woman taking a nap on the sofa in the living room
Maribel Ezcurra, 77, a retired milling machine mechanic, practices tai chi with fellow seniors in a park in the Playa neighborhood of Havana, Cuba, Wednesday, April 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)

Social isolation

The lack of connection can increase the risk of premature death by
as much as 29 per cent.

Strength training

It really is the proxy for
overall independence.

The more muscle mass you have, the less chance of heart disease, diabetes, falls and even anxiety, depression and dementia. 

This is a photo of a senior man helping his wife lift weights. See PA Feature HEALTH Physio. WARNING: This picture must only be used to accompany PA feature HEALTH Physio. PA Photo.Picture credit should read: Alamy/PA. NOTE TO EDITORS: This picture must only be used to accompany PA Feature HEALTH Physio.

The brain can be linked to muscle mass too, Harlow says. It’s not just about being able to lift things. It gives you more energy, better sleep and you’ll look and feel better.

How to age without pain

Daily habits

Do short bursts of exercise, between 30 and 60 seconds, in otherwise dead time during the day.

Elderly woman exercising in a public park
A mature man rouses in the early morning light, stretching as he wakes.

Stretch in bed

Take joints through a full range of motion for five minutes to loosen it before getting up.

Don’t crash diet

A woman adds up food calorie counts in her kitchen

How to age without pain

Protein shake and chocolate protein powder in a scoop, Sports nutrition.

Harlow advises 1.6 grams per kilogram of body weight to stop muscle loss alongside resistance training.

Don’t wait

Harlow finds that many patients put off making a change to their lifestyle until their lives are consumed by pain. 

Menstrual pain, woman with stomachache suffering from pms at home, endometriosis, cystitis and other diseases of the urinary system - stock photo
Close-up view of female jogger tying laces of her sport shoes before running exercise routine. Motivation, healthy lifestyle and fitness concept.

For most people, it’s about reducing the number of times per week you’re exercising, not reducing intensity. 

The three ageing tests to do

  • Lie completely flat on the floor and get back up to a standing position using any technique. This should take less than 10 seconds.

  • See how many times you can sit on the chair and stand back up again in 30 seconds. Men should be aiming for more than 14 times and women 12. 

  • The single-leg stand, which involves standing on one leg and balancing for 10 seconds. Everyone should be able to do that and for those under 65, Harlow asks them to do it with their eyes closed.

Despite the job market hiring fewer entry-level roles, employers are still looking for grads…

But you should be prepared to keep an open mind.

We’ve compiled the sectors hiring graduate roles, what degree is required, and what they pay.

Young adults in graduation gowns joyfully tossing caps into the sky, celebrating achievement and new beginnings against a clear backdrop

The degrees to choose for a career

Hiring in the UK could
finally be on the up

47%

of employers offered entry-level
positions from July.

That is up nearly 15 per cent from the same period last year.

700,000

But graduate unemployment rose to six per cent in 2025 and 700,000 jobless graduates were claiming benefits.

Finance and insurance

  • Around 42 per cent of UK finance and insurance employers say they will be open to graduate roles this summer.
  • Business loan company Portman Finance Group has taken on 50 graduates over the past four years.
A lot of thought needs to be put into transferring a DB pension to a DC pot

Portman graduates start on £36,000 for the two-year programme and the education you need to apply is a minimum “ABB” of A-levels, and a 2:1 or above university degree. But not in a specific subject.

Mature businesswoman wearing casual, commuting to work in the city of Vienna. Female commuter leaving the subway train while commuting to work

Trade and logistics

What makes it particularly rewarding is that there’s always something to learn.

Nearly half (47 per cent) of trade and logistics companies will be giving graduates a go this year.

Salaries start at £30,000 with an uncapped bonus, rising to £50,000 plus a company car as a senior account partner.

Technology and IT

More than half (52 per cent) of UK tech and IT firms are actively looking for graduates. 

Successful entry-level candidates can earn a basic salary of up to £35,000, with the opportunity to triple that within their first three years of working.

Young business woman searching for job online. Woman writing resume on laptop.

4 min read

Public sector, health
and social services 

46 per cent of public sector, health and social services organisations are also ready to take graduates, according to a survey by Manpower. 

A policeman walking away from an elderly person's home. - stock photo
  • For example, Police Now runs a graduate programme into policing. They recruit graduates from any degree field, as long as they achieve a 2:2 or above. Starting salaries range from £31,164 to £42,210 depending on location and rising each year.

Can we treat guests without blowing our budget?

According to Waitrose, a dinner party revival is underway led by younger people trying to reduce the cost of getting together.

Always have bread

People will feast on the
bread, and then need less fish/steak/expensive whatever. All small plates restaurants know this: this is why the first thing on the menu is always artisan bread and butter.

ELLA RISBRIDGER, AUTHOR OF THE KITCHEN BOOK – GOOD FOOD FOR EVERY DAY
Female Hands cutting bread. - stock photo

Use vegetables as centrepieces

Variety Fresh of organic fruits and vegetables and healthy vegan meal ingredients in reusable eco cotton bags on beige background . Zero waste shopping concept. Healthy food, clean eating, eco friendly, no plastic. Flat lay, top view - stock photo
Beautiful woman unpacks a full fabric bag with fruits and vegetables on the kitchen. - stock photo


Add pantry items

Graham’s recipes include a braised cabbage with a preserved lemon sauce, a roast cauliflower with saffron, and harrisa roast carrots with mango labneh.

How to host on a budget

Table top view of Indian food.

Improve the everyday

Guests will always appreciate a stellar interpretation of the ordinary. Think lasagna or curry.

Cooking dinner for your guests is spoiling them – you’re being generous with your time, your effort, and your home. So don’t feel the need to go overboard elsewhere.

A group of friends is toasting together during a dinner party. They are smiling, celebrating together.
Man serving friends salad at backyard dinner party - stock photo

Ask for help

Ask friends to bring a contribution, be it a nibble or a pudding.

Big platter energy

[Presentation] can be the key to elevating something . Spaghetti and tomato sauce suddenly looks like a feast when tumbled on a lovely big plate, dressed with olive oil and parmesan and placed in the middle of the table.

Food writer and editor Eleanor Steafel 

How to host on a budget

Taco party

Have one expensive filling, like shredded chicken, and two cheaper options, like refried beans, says Ella Risbridger.

Traditional ice cream parlours are still going strong (Shutterstock)
Tacos are a popular dish throughout the country (Photo: Daniela White Images/Getty)

Shop-bought ice cream is so easily zhuzhed up with the help of handy toppings, says Eleanor Steafel.

Ratcliffe’s visit came shortly after after US intelligence warned that Russia could attack a Nato country within weeks. The report indicated this would fall below the threshold of all-out war but could involve a small-scale incursion into a Nato state in Eastern Europe to test and potentially fracture the alliance.

Russia appeared to deny reports it is planning an attack. Asked to comment on the CIA visit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “A lot of this kind of scare-story material is being published right now. Of course, it has ‌nothing to do with reality and nothing to do ​with the intentions of the Russian Federation.”

Moscow most notably denied plans of military aggression in the lead up to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Are the Baltics safe?

The Baltics have downplayed fears of an outright attack on the region.

“I want to clearly tell the people of Latvia: there is currently no reason for concern. Latvia’s level of military threat has not changed. The risk of direct military invasion threats to Latvia is currently low,” Latvia’s Prime Minister, Andris Kulbergs, said. “Readiness for a possible threat is not the same as an immediate threat. These two things must not be confused.”

Soldiers on maneuvers with a Viking, an Iveco Defence Vehicles unmanned ground vehicle (AGV), during NATO-linked military exercises with British, Latvian, Canadian and Italian forces, in Latvia, on Sunday, Oct. 5, 2025. In the wilds of Latvia, the British military is trying out new battlefield technology and how to best integrate 'the technician and the tactician' in weapons development. Photographer: Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Estonian foreign ministry said: “Estonia’s threat assessment has not changed.”

“Throughout Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, US officials have met regularly with Russian representatives, so the CIA director’s visit should not be regarded as pivotal,” the statement said.

There are no signs of the kind of large-scale Russian military build-up near the Baltic states that preceded the invasion of Ukraine.

Yet Baltic politicians have repeatedly warned of Russian provocations in the region. Earlier this month, the Lithuanian defence minister, Robert Kaunas, warned that Russia was considering provocations including false-flag operations targeting critical infrastructure using Ukrainian drones.

In May, Russia’s ambassador to the UN claimed Moscow ‌had information that Ukraine planned to launch military drones from Latvia and other Baltic states, a claim immediately rejected by Latvia as “pure fiction”. Several drones have crashed in the Baltic states with their origins unclear.

“Despite repeated communications by the Latvian side through diplomatic channels and in public stating that the Republic of Latvia has not given its consent for its territory and airspace to be used to carry out attacks against targets in the Russian ​Federation, the Russian side continues to spread lies and make escalatory statements,” the Latvian foreign ministry said.

Russia has sub-threshold options

To challenge Nato without passing the threshold for all-out war, Russia may increase so-called grey zone or hybrid threats, such as cyber attacks or sabotage.

Latvia’s foreign minister this week warned of growing risks of sub-threshold attacks on Europe. He said this could include cyber, disinformation, hostile information operations, sabotage activities or even the killing of activists.

“We have seen the burning of the ammunition factories. We have seen possible arson attacks on [former] prime minister [Keir] Starmer’s properties or planning of those,” he told PBS news. “We have seen in Leipzig, the armed drone in the airport near big transport aircraft. So there is no immediate military threat, but indeed the whole security situation in Europe, in the Euro-Atlantic zone, is… much more in need of proper understanding and reaction if necessary.”

The Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nausėda, said intelligence indicated Russia might be planning limited attacks on critical infrastructure such as energy and transport facilities,

Melanie Garson, a professor of international security at UCL, said Russia might plot “signalling actions that can cause maximum chaos”.

Garson added that Russia might work with other hostile states, like Iran, to target Europe’s critical infrastructure.

A vehicle stands on the road near the site where debris from at least one drone was found, following the detection of foreign drone activity near their border with Russia overnight, in Kastre Parish, Estonia, March 31, 2026. Anni Onneleid/Delfi Meedia/Handout via REUTERS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. MANDATORY CREDIT. ESTONIA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN ESTONIA

Russia could increase its drone incursions into European airspace. There has already been a series of aerial incursions into Nato territory – though it isn’t clear if these have been entirely deliberate – and Baltic countries are privately concerned about more.

In May, a drone fitted with explosives hit an apartment building in Romania, and last week, another armed drone was found in a German airport and has been reportedly linked to a Russian intelligence service.

In early September, Russian drones violated Polish airspace, and later that month, three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, triggering urgent Nato meetings.

A leaked letter from three Baltic European commissioners to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned of a “deteriorating security environment” amid an “increased frequency of airspace violations and drone incursions”.

Garson suggested that airports could be a particular target for drone disruption. “We have already seen the effects of balloons and drones in key airspace, especially around airports,” she said.

Russia could deny responsibility for a large-scale drone incursion by suggesting they were heading to Ukraine but mistakenly changed course due to electronic warfare such as jamming.

GALATI, ROMANIA - MAY 29: A view shows destruction caused by a Russian drone hitting an apartment building in the eastern city of Galati, Romania, on May 29, 2026. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Little green men

But is there a chance that Russia could launch a military incursion?

There is no visible Russian military build-up around the Baltic states today as there was before the 2022 Ukraine invasion. However, an attempt to test Nato might not need one.

The Latvian president, Edgars Rinkēvičs, has warned that Moscow could try to test Article 5 without launching a full-scale invasion.

The Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War suggested that any near-term Russian aggression could take the form of an air, missile or drone strike, or even a small land incursion that was not aimed at taking large amounts of territory but at testing Nato’s resolve to respond under Article 5.

The Baltic states are highly aware of a potential “little green men” scenario, seen against Ukraine in 2014.

This was the approach taken by Russia during its invasion of Crimea, which began with a smaller force without Russian insignia seizing key sites under the justification of protecting Russian interests, before being backed up by conventional military power and civil infrastructure.

If Russia wanted to test the reaction of the alliance, it could try a smaller-scale incursion, in an “ambiguous way”, where they snatch territory and hope Nato is “reluctant to go for a big response”, Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Rusi think-tank, said. “If that doesn’t work, they can always just pull back and claim it was all a terrible misunderstanding.”

One possible location for this is Narva, in Estonia, where Russia might send in a small number of troops ostensibly to defend an oppressed Russian minority.

“It could be an outright false flag, or it could just be a claimed threat, and so they would send in people saying they have a responsibility to protect people who are Russian culturally. Then you have a large conventional force backing them up,” Savill said. “If there’s a Nato response, you would fire on them and say, ‘well, you threatened our people who are only there to help protect Russian citizens.'”

However, Savill said that the concept of a sub-threshold attack or invasion was “woolly” and high-risk because it was hard to define the line for all-out war and to predict how Nato would respond.

“This can go badly wrong,” Savill said, pointing to an operation by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner in Syria to push out American troops in 2018, in which the US “called bluff” on the Russian position and killed hundreds of Wagner fighters. “There’s a kind of bluff and double bluff.”

Furthermore, the Baltics would fight back, said James Nixey, former director of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House.

“The Baltic states are well defended,” he told The i Paper. “Those three countries have been preparing for a Russian attack for over two decades. So while they are minuscule by size comparison, they have developed and refined plans to such an extent that Russia would get a very bloody nose if it tried anything.

“The more likely Russian move is a so-called hybrid attack – perhaps cyber, perhaps terror, perhaps a false flag as a pretext for later military action.

“In terms of Ratcliffe’s day-trip, it would be very out of character for this US administration to offer any warning or harsh words to Moscow. Besides, the last time a CIA chief visited Moscow – to warn the Russians not to invade Ukraine – the Russians, of course, did it regardless. They don’t take their orders from the American government. If anything, it’s the other way round.”

Russia’s moves depend on its desired outcome.

“If they’re trying to disrupt or scare off support for Ukraine, then you’re looking at disruption and sabotage, and that could involve violence,” said Savill. “If you are looking at something that threatens Nato cohesion, then what you’re looking at is a scenario that involves some kind of conventional threat, but used in such a way as to mean that the certainty of response is confused.”

Original source The tiny corner of Europe in Putin’s crosshairs

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